Analysis & Reports

The Chengdu J-36 stealth fighter prototypes have been spotted in flight from December 2024 to July 2026, showcasing various design changes. The aircraft features a tailless diamond-wing design, three engines, and is speculated to serve as a medium-range tactical aircraft or regional bomber. China is expediting the J-36 program, indicating a strong commitment to advancing its military aviation capabilities.

Japan launched the Quasi-Zenith Satellite-7 on August 10, 2025, carrying the second US Space Force orbital neighborhood watch sensor. This launch, part of a bilateral effort with the US, aims to enhance space monitoring capabilities over the Indo-Pacific region. The satellite was successfully deployed from Tanegashima Space Center and will contribute data to the US Space Surveillance Network.

Helsing is collaborating with Rakuten to finalize a deal for selling unmanned systems to Japan's army, with the Ground Self-Defense Forces currently testing the HX-2 strike drone. The field tests are scheduled to continue until the end of September. Rakuten's involvement aims to facilitate greater participation of startups in Japan's defense industry, addressing barriers to entry.

Japan's Defense Minister Kōzuki Shinjiro visited Australia and India from the 17th to the 21st to discuss defense cooperation and military equipment sales. In Australia, he confirmed plans for the procurement of upgraded Mogami-class frigates, while in India, he explored defense equipment cooperation, including stealth communication systems. This initiative aims to strengthen military ties amid concerns over U.S. military supply capabilities.

Sweden announced plans to sell 20 Gripen E/F aircraft to Ukraine and donate 16 C/Ds. Saab signed a contract for 16 Gripen Es, with deliveries expected between 2029 and 2030. The Gripen is designed for operations from short, rough airstrips, enhancing its combat versatility. Current operators include Sweden, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, and Thailand, with ongoing interest from Canada.

US President Trump announced a reduction in military exercises with South Korea, citing costs and the message it sends to North Korea. The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise is scheduled to begin and run through August 27, but Trump instructed a substantial reduction in participation. Lawmakers expressed concerns about the impact on military readiness and the US-South Korea alliance.

President Trump ordered a substantial reduction of joint military exercises with South Korea in August 2023, citing costs and political disagreements. Approximately 18,000 South Korean military personnel were scheduled to participate in the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises. The decision reflects ongoing tensions regarding defense costs and North Korea's missile activities, as well as Trump's desire to engage diplomatically with Pyongyang.

The U.S. Space Force successfully launched a Space Domain Awareness sensor aboard Japan’s QZS-7 satellite on August 10, 2023, from Tanegashima Space Center. This launch enhances space surveillance capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region and is part of a bilateral effort with Japan. The sensor will provide near-real-time data to the Space Surveillance Network, improving the understanding of activities in geosynchronous orbit.

Joint military exercises named 'Eulji Freedom Shield' commenced on August 17, 2023, between South Korea and the United States. President Trump requested a significant reduction in the scale of these exercises, citing their high costs and perceived hostile signals to North Korea. Despite this, South Korean military officials confirmed that the exercises are proceeding as planned, with a reported reduction in the number of field maneuvers from 44 to 14 compared to the previous year.

The Navy 83 Fleet successfully completed a long-distance comprehensive training mission on August 17, covering over 11,000 nautical miles. The fleet, consisting of the Qijiang Ship and Kunlun Mountain Ship, included 970 trainees and 19 foreign military personnel. During the 64-day mission, the fleet conducted training exercises and made friendly visits to Russia, Vietnam, Brunei, and Indonesia.

Elbridge Colby concluded his Southeast Asia tour in Phnom Penh on August 15, 2023, focusing on military partnerships with Cambodia and the Philippines. The U.S. Navy requested dock space at the Ream Naval Base, renovated by China, highlighting a shift in U.S. military policy. Colby emphasized the importance of allies investing in their own defense capabilities, while the U.S. lifted its arms embargo on Cambodia, allowing for increased military cooperation.

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President Trump ordered a reduction in the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise involving 18,000 South Korean and U.S. troops, citing costs and the need to improve relations with North Korea. The exercise, which began in August 2023, focuses on drone warfare and cyberattack scenarios. North Korea condemned the drills, calling them a military confrontation, while experts believe Trump's directive may be an attempt to facilitate negotiations with Kim Jong-un.

The CSIS report highlights the vulnerabilities of the Chinese Navy's anti-submarine capabilities, identifying U.S. nuclear submarines as a major threat in the Western Pacific. It emphasizes that the narrow waterways of the first island chain increase the risks for Chinese naval operations. The report suggests that the U.S. should focus on making Chinese aircraft carriers a costly burden rather than just defending against missile threats. It also notes that China's underwater warfare capabilities are still developing and require time to improve.

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This year, 11 soldiers were promoted at the Naval Base of the Northern Theater Command. The base is actively addressing the rising number of college-educated soldiers by implementing policies to support their development. Individual assessments are conducted annually to ensure no soldier is left behind, and specialized training programs are established to enhance their skills.

Japan's government is accelerating its militarization efforts, significantly increasing its defense budget and discussing potential revisions to its nuclear policy. This shift reflects a broader trend towards integrating civilian technology into military applications and enhancing self-defense capabilities. The government aims to revise its longstanding 'Three Non-Nuclear Principles' and is promoting domestic military production.

On August 14, 2023, China's Ministry of National Defense warned against Japan's 'new militarism' in response to its defense budget request of approximately 8.9 trillion yen. The warning coincided with Japan's leaders visiting Yasukuni Shrine, which China condemned. The Chinese defense budget is significantly higher than Japan's, and the rhetoric aims to frame Japan's military actions within a historical context, raising regional tensions.

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A researcher from China's National Development and Reform Commission called for the requisition of civilian vessels to support military operations, citing the UK's Falklands War as a model. The report highlights China's merchant fleet as the largest globally, totaling 320.3 million gross tons. It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive survey of civilian ships and raises concerns about the challenges of mobilizing these vessels in high-threat environments.

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On August 9, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reaffirmed Japan's commitment to its non-nuclear principles during a peace ceremony in Nagasaki. The reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella is under scrutiny as discussions on nuclear policy gain prominence in Japan. The U.S. Navy is developing nuclear-capable sea-launched cruise missiles expected to be operational in the early 2030s, raising questions about Japan's strict adherence to its non-nuclear stance.

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The U.S. Navy conducted a transit through the Taiwan Strait on January 16-17, 2026, involving USS John Finn and USNS Mary Sears, marking the only transit in 212 days. This significant reduction in transit frequency is perceived by Beijing as a shift in U.S. policy and a sign of declining American presence in the region. The PLA monitored the transit closely, launching 25 sorties in response.

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The report identifies the five worst aircraft carriers in history, including Japan's Shinano, which sank shortly after commissioning, and France's Béarn, which was too slow for modern operations. Other notable failures include Thailand's Chakri Naruebet, which lost its air wing, and Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov, which has been non-operational since 2017. Germany's Graf Zeppelin was never commissioned and ultimately scuttled.