Analysis & Reports

Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones against military and civilian targets in Gulf states since late February 2026. Gulf air defense systems, particularly in the UAE, successfully intercepted a significant number of these threats. The military performance has validated years of investment in air defense, but concerns about sustaining operational tempo and stockpile depletion remain. The strikes have also led to a profound diplomatic fallout, creating a trust deficit among Gulf Cooperation Council states.

Ahmed Al-RashidFri Mar 13 2026Loading...

The U.S. military has spent over $11 billion in the first week of operations against Iran, with ongoing airstrikes and naval engagements. Senator Chris Murphy criticized the incoherence of U.S. war plans, particularly regarding the lack of a strategy for the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian retaliatory strikes have damaged at least 11 U.S. military bases in the region, raising concerns about the conflict's escalation and its impact on international shipping.

Malian, Burkinabè, and Nigerien forces conducted coordinated military operations from February 21 to March 9, 2026, eliminating over 100 terrorists. The Malian Armed Forces executed a surgical airstrike in Yanfolila, while the Burkinabè army launched a counter-offensive in Northern Sahel. Nigerien forces successfully repelled an attack on the Tahua airport. These actions reflect an intensified commitment to counter-terrorism amid evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

HAVELSAN broke ground on a new flight simulator production and integration facility in Ankara on March 12, 2026. The facility will enable the production of over 30 simulators annually and support the development of up to 16 simulators simultaneously. This expansion positions HAVELSAN as the largest full flight simulator production center in Europe and the Middle East, enhancing Türkiye's role in the aviation training industry.

Iran continues to ship large amounts of crude oil to China through the Strait of Hormuz despite military threats and attacks on vessels. Since February 28, 2026, approximately 12 million barrels have transited the strait, with the majority officially destined for the People's Republic of China. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted vessels, but analysts believe a long-term blockade of the strait would harm Iran's own interests.

Australia announced the deployment of an E-7A Wedgetail early-warning aircraft and 85 troops to the Middle East on March 10, 2023, to bolster airspace security against Iranian threats. The Royal Australian Air Force will also assist in replenishing the United Arab Emirates' stocks of AIM-120 air-to-air missiles. This deployment is part of Australia's commitment to support regional defense without engaging in offensive operations against Iran.

The U.S. military has expended over 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the first 72 hours of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, prompting a shift to Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs) to conserve high-end munitions for the Indo-Pacific. General Dan Caine warned that continued military operations could deplete U.S. munitions stockpiles, affecting commitments to allies. Lockheed Martin and RTX are ramping up production of precision munitions to address the crisis.

The U.S. Army is preparing for a potential invasion of Iran in 2026, facing significant challenges due to the country's geography and military strategy. Despite overwhelming technological and budgetary advantages, the complexities of occupying a nation four times the size of Iraq and the threat of asymmetric warfare from Iran complicate the operation. Logistical support for hundreds of thousands of troops would be critical amidst missile attacks and insurgent activities.

The U.S. military has extensively used Tomahawk cruise missiles in strikes against Iran during the ongoing conflict in 2026, leading to a critical shortage of these weapons. With an estimated pre-war stockpile of 4,000 missiles and production historically limited to 90 units annually, the U.S. faces significant challenges in replenishing its arsenal. RTX plans to increase production capacity to 1,000 missiles per year, but rebuilding the stockpile may take years due to complex supply chains and ongoing military demands.

As of March 2026, over 1 million passengers are stranded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha due to airspace closures from the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran. More than 12,000 flights were canceled, severely disrupting travel in the region. The U.S. State Department has initiated charter flights for stranded Americans after facing criticism for inadequate evacuation plans. The conflict has also caused significant damage to Dubai Airport from drone debris, raising concerns about a potential refugee crisis in Iran.

US and Israeli forces conducted intensive airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including the IRGC drone command and Hezbollah infrastructure, on March 10, 2026. Iran retaliated with missile strikes in Bahrain and Qatar, resulting in casualties. The conflict has escalated with Russia providing real-time intelligence to Iran, further complicating US operational security. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid the crisis.

Ahmed Al-RashidMon Mar 09 2026Loading...

The U.S. Army National Guard initiated a procurement effort on March 7, 2026, to acquire small unmanned aerial systems for training and operational support at the Volunteer Training Site in Smyrna, Tennessee. The Tennessee Army National Guard is seeking three types of drones that comply with the Blue UAS security certification requirements, including models like the Neros Archer and FlightWave Edge 130. This effort aims to enhance reconnaissance and training capabilities without relying on larger platforms.

Iran launched over 2,000 drones against Gulf states, significantly challenging their air defenses. On March 5, Iranian drones struck residential buildings in Manama, Bahrain, causing damage despite existing defenses. The UAE intercepted 541 drones and 165 missiles, while Kuwait engaged 283 drones. International military support is being mobilized, including Stinger missiles from Italy and fighter jets from the UK.

Ahmed Al-RashidSun Mar 08 2026Loading...

Israeli forces attacked multiple fuel storage facilities in Tehran on March 7 at 22:33 local time, aiming to weaken Iranian military infrastructure. The Israeli Defense Forces stated that these facilities are frequently used by the Iranian military to support operations. Reports indicated intense explosions in the area, reflecting the impact of the strikes.

Integrated air and missile defense forces from the United States, Israel, and Gulf partners successfully defended against Iranian air, missile, and drone attacks in the Middle East. This success highlights the effectiveness of their coordinated defense systems, but also reveals a critical inventory problem for interceptors. The U.S. must expand production and improve its missile defense capabilities to address ongoing and future threats, particularly from Iran and China.

A U.S. Navy submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, resulting in significant casualties. Four U.S. service members were killed in a drone strike in Kuwait. NATO air defenses successfully intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile targeting Turkey. Concurrently, U.S. military operations against drug traffickers in Ecuador are ongoing, and a U.S. military base in Qatar was struck by a ballistic missile.

The U.S. military is concerned about the depletion of air defense interceptors amid ongoing conflicts with Iran. On February 28, 2024, the U.S. and Israel conducted airstrikes against Iranian military targets to weaken Iran's missile and drone retaliation capabilities. The Pentagon is focused on replenishing stocks of Patriot and Standard missiles, while Israel faces its own ammunition supply issues. If the conflict persists, the U.S. may utilize stocks from the Pacific region.

U.S. armed forces are currently engaged in combat operations in Iran, facing significant logistical challenges, particularly in airlift and aerial refueling capabilities. The Air Force's tanker fleet is under strain due to high operational demands, with 119 task-ready crews available and over 100 aerial refueling aircraft deployed. Experts warn that these logistical constraints could impact the effectiveness of ongoing operations under Operation Epic Fury.

U.S. military leaders express concern over the rapid depletion of missile stockpiles due to ongoing operations in Iran, which could compromise military readiness in the Indo-Pacific region. The conflict may embolden China to take action against Taiwan, as U.S. defense capabilities are strained. Iran continues to launch missile attacks, and the U.S. is facing challenges in replenishing its military resources.

Saudi Arabia's Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) operates a modern fleet of 914 active aircraft, including advanced F-15SA fighters and Eurofighter Typhoons, for air defense and strike operations. The RSAF plays a crucial role in national defense, supported by U.S. and U.K. training. The potential acquisition of F-35 jets could further enhance its capabilities, posing a threat to regional rivals.