Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
The Week the War Came to Moscow: Escalation, Deterrence, and the Fracturing of European Security
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Moscow and other Russian locations on May 5, leading to the interception of 117 drones by Russian forces. The attacks coincide with heightened security measures in Moscow ahead of the Victory Day parade, which has been significantly scaled back due to perceived threats. Ukraine's military operations have expanded into Russia's industrial heartland, while diplomatic tensions continue to rise between NATO and Russia. President Zelensky proposed a unilateral ceasefire, challenging Russia's response.
Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...Ukraine strikes deep into Russia, hits key military electronics supplier
Ukraine struck the VNIIR Progress electronics facility in Cheboksary, Russia, overnight using an FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile followed by An-196 kamikaze drones. This facility is crucial for supplying electronics to Russian military systems, and the strike indicates a significant enhancement in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities. The operation reflects a strategic shift in targeting industrial sites that support Russian military operations, revealing potential weaknesses in Russian air defense.
Russia announces ceasefire on Victory Day, hopes Ukraine will follow suit
Russia announced a ceasefire for Victory Day on May 8-9, urging Ukraine to reciprocate. The Russian Ministry of Defense warned that any attempts by Ukraine to disrupt the celebrations would be met with significant retaliation, particularly if attacks on Moscow occur. The military is prepared to ensure the safety of the events, marking the 81st anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War.
Ukraine's Deep Strike Campaign Reaches Into Moscow as NATO Fractures Deepen Across Eastern Europe
A Ukrainian drone struck the Mosfilm Tower in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted military assets in Leningrad Oblast and Novorossiysk, while Russian missile strikes in Kharkiv Oblast resulted in civilian casualties. The report highlights growing political tensions within NATO, particularly following U.S. troop reductions in Europe.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...
Ukraine's Long-Range Strike Campaign Reaches Into the Heart of Moscow as NATO's Sword 26 Demonstrates Eastern Flank Warfighting Readiness
Ukrainian drones struck a residential building in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian naval assets in the Gulf of Finland and conducted multiple drone strikes on oil refineries and military installations. NATO's Exercise Sword 26, involving 15,500 participants, aims to validate combat readiness across the eastern flank. These developments reflect a shifting strategic landscape in the ongoing conflict.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...Russian media: Ukrainian drone attack results in two deaths and multiple injuries
Ukrainian forces conducted 14 drone strikes in Donetsk Oblast on May 4, 2023, resulting in two fatalities and four injuries. The strikes also caused damage to seven residential buildings and four civilian infrastructures. Additionally, a drone attack in Bryansk Oblast injured one employee at an industrial facility.
Ukraine Escalates Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Energy Infrastructure as Frontline Fighting Intensifies
Ukrainian forces executed a series of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, including the Tuapse oil refinery and tankers near Novorossiysk, from May 1 to 3, 2026. The attacks aimed to degrade Russia's oil export capabilities and were part of a broader deep-strike campaign. Concurrently, ground combat intensified along the eastern front, with significant engagements reported. Ukrainian drones also damaged Russian fighter jets at Shagol airfield, highlighting the expanding operational reach of Ukrainian forces.
Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...Zelensky Claims Ukraine Continues to Sanction Russia's "Shadow Fleet," Strikes Two Oil Tankers Entering Port
Ukrainian forces struck two oil tankers in the Novorossiysk port area on the 3rd of the month, as announced by President Zelensky. These tankers are vital for transporting Russian oil, which supports its wartime economy. Zelensky stated that Ukraine will continue to impose sanctions on Russia's 'shadow fleet' and highlighted the enhancement of Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.
Ukraine's Deep-Strike Campaign Escalates as Zelensky Orders Sweeping Military Reform
Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaign against Russian strategic infrastructure in May 2026, targeting facilities like the Tuapse Oil Refinery and Shagol Airfield. These operations demonstrate Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities and strategic reach. Concurrently, President Zelensky announced major military reforms to enhance personnel retention and institutional professionalism. However, delays in U.S. weapons deliveries pose challenges to Ukraine's military efforts as Russia adapts and continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...
Russia’s Oil Refinery Capacity Just Hit a 16-Year Low. Ukraine Did That with Drone Strikes
Ukrainian forces launched drone strikes on the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, on 1 May, marking the fourth attack in two weeks. The strikes reignited fires at the facility, which had previously been extinguished, and are part of a campaign to degrade Russia's oil production capacity. This campaign aims to disrupt military logistics and reduce state revenue from oil.
An SR-71 Blackbird Might Have Flown Near Chernobyl’s Radiation in 1986. The Crew Didn’t Know. A Geiger Counter Was Waiting When They Landed.
In April 1986, a U.S. Air Force SR-71 Blackbird conducted a reconnaissance mission over the Barents Sea and Baltic region shortly after the Chernobyl disaster. The crew was unaware of the radiation risk during their flight. Upon landing, they were approached by a technician in protective gear with a Geiger counter to check for radiation exposure.
NATO's Eastern Flank in Transition: Exercise Sword 26, European Defence Autonomy, and the Escalating Ukraine-Russia Strategic Contest
NATO launched Exercise Sword 26 in Germany with 15,500 troops from 11 countries in April 2026, focusing on coordinated multi-domain operations. Ukrainian forces executed deep-strike campaigns against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure and military assets, reaching 1,400 kilometers into Russia. In response, Russia increased drone attacks and adapted its tactics. The U.S. also provided $400 million in defense funding to Ukraine.
Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...
Ukraine hit Russian Su-57s at remote airbase
Ukraine struck several Russian Su-57 Felon stealth fighters and one Su-34 Fullback at Shagol airfield in Chelyabinsk on April 25. The attack, confirmed by Ukraine's General Staff, aimed to reduce Russia's ability to target Ukrainian civilians. Independent satellite imagery corroborated the damage to the aircraft, marking a notable extension of Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.
The Empty Square: Ukraine Long-Range Strike Campaign Forces Russia to Cancel Victory Day Military Hardware Display
Ukraine conducted long-range strikes against Russian military targets from April 28 to 30, 2023, leading to the cancellation of Russia's Victory Day parade. The strikes included attacks on military helicopters in Voronezh Oblast and infrastructure in Perm and Orenburg Oblasts. This escalation reflects Ukraine's evolving strike capabilities and has significant implications for Russian military operations and morale.
Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...
Europe's largest rearmament since the Cold War: The SIPRI Report 2025 and the new geopolitical reality of the continent
European defense spending surged by 14% in 2025, reaching $864 billion, marking the highest level recorded by SIPRI. Germany's defense budget rose by 24% to $114 billion, while Poland allocated 4.5% of its GDP to defense. Both Russia and Ukraine significantly increased their military expenditures, with Ukraine's budget hitting 40% of its GDP. The NATO summit in June 2025 established a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035.
Dr. Klaus WeberThu Apr 30 2026Loading...Zelensky says Ukraine's eastern regions were attacked, causing casualties
Russian forces launched over 200 drones and ballistic missiles against Ukraine on the night of the 29th, with approximately 30 attack drones striking multiple cities on the morning of the 30th. President Zelensky reported injuries and property damage in Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukraine's Drone War Reaches Inflection Point: Deep Strike Campaign Escalates as Counter-Shahed Systems Prove Their Worth
In April 2026, Ukraine intensified its drone warfare, conducting 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and destroying four helicopters in Voronezh Oblast. Russian forces deployed over 8,400 kamikaze drones in a single day, while Ukraine's interceptor drones achieved a 90% interception rate. The conflict's drone dimension has become a critical operational focus, with Ukraine demonstrating the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.
Dmitri VolkovThu Apr 30 2026Loading...The UAV of the Special Operations Center of the Wu claims a long-range attack on the Perm Oil Refinery within Russian territory.
On April 30, the Ukrainian Special Operations Center conducted a drone strike on a Russian oil refinery in Perm, marking the second consecutive day of attacks on Russian energy facilities in the area. The refinery, which has an annual production capacity of 13 million tons, supplies fuel for both civilian use and the Russian military.
North Korea Displays German Tanks Captured on the Russia-Ukraine Battlefield
North Korea commemorated its military's involvement in battles against Ukrainian forces in Kursk by inaugurating a museum in Pyongyang. Over 10,000 North Korean soldiers participated in these operations. The event featured a display of captured military equipment, including a Leopard 2A4 tank, which was reportedly seized in February 2025. The origins of the tank remain uncertain, as it may have been captured by Russian forces before being transferred to North Korea.
Russia upgrades Mi-8 crew protection after costly Ukraine combat losses
Russia is developing a new modular armor system for over 50 Mi-8 helicopters in response to significant combat losses in Ukraine. The system aims to enhance crew and troop protection against threats, particularly from Ukrainian air defense systems. The armor is currently being tested at the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant in Buryatia, with plans for production-scale fielding in the near future.
