Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces recaptured 86 square kilometers and 18 settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from February 20-22, 2026, disrupting Russian offensive operations. Russian claims of territorial gains were found to be inflated, with independent assessments verifying only 572 square kilometers seized. The denial of Starlink access has significantly impacted Russian command and control capabilities, leading to operational challenges. Russian forces continue to conduct strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, despite facing increasing manpower pressures and recruitment issues.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 22 2026Loading...

As of February 2026, the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet has been effectively neutralized and relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk due to sustained attacks from Ukraine. The Naval Infantry has seen personnel numbers drop from 150,000 to 119,000, reflecting a significant decline in operational capability. The sinking of the Moskva in April 2022 exemplifies the fleet's systemic failures and vulnerabilities.

In February 2026, approximately 8,000 North Korean troops are deployed in Kursk Oblast, Russia, under Russian command, providing fire support. This deployment follows North Korea's significant casualties in recent combat. Concurrently, Russia is enhancing its military support for North Korea while opposing South Korea's nuclear submarine development. The U.S. has initiated a Maritime Action Plan to strengthen shipbuilding cooperation with allies, including Japan and South Korea.

Tanaka TakashiSat Feb 21 2026Loading...

Belarus has initiated a rapid reserve mobilization, with reports of sudden call-ups for military duty in Grodno, Slonim, and Baranki. Men are receiving summonses with minimal notice, often requiring immediate reporting to military units. This mobilization is characterized by its speed and lack of typical deferments, raising concerns about its implications near NATO borders.

NATO commenced its Steadfast Dart 2026 military exercise in Central Europe on February 5, 2026, amid a backdrop of declining Russian offensive momentum in Ukraine. The U.S. is deploying additional military assets to the Middle East in response to rising tensions with Iran, while Ukraine continues its long-range strike campaign against Russian targets. Concurrently, Iranian officials have issued stark warnings regarding potential U.S. military actions.

Alexandra ReevesThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

Russian forces seized 200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 12 settlements in Donetsk Oblast in February 2026, but at a high cost, with the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly operating at 40% strength. Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Zaporizhia Oblast, reclaiming over 200 square kilometers. The operational reality indicates that while Russia can gain territory, it struggles to maintain combat power and achieve strategic objectives.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

Elon Musk's decision to cut off Russian forces' access to Starlink on February 5, 2026, led to significant operational challenges for the Russian Army, resulting in Ukrainian forces reclaiming over 200 square kilometers of territory. The communication breakdown severely impacted Russian military coordination, with reports of scrambling for alternative satellite systems. Ukrainian counterattacks advanced rapidly, exploiting the disruption in Russian command and control capabilities.

Marcus ChenThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

Russia's military has started receiving new satellite internet terminals to replace blocked Starlink equipment. This transition involves domestic providers using the Yamal and Express satellite systems, following a disruption in command-and-control capabilities. The new antennas are larger and more visible, indicating a significant shift in military communications strategy.

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev was shot three times outside his apartment in Moscow on February 6, 2024, in an assassination attempt that highlights ongoing power struggles within Russia's military intelligence. Two suspects have been detained, but the motive remains unclear, with speculation about internal factional payback or external threats. This incident underscores the instability within the GRU and raises concerns about the command structure as Russia prepares for a major military offensive.

Alexandra ReevesSun Feb 08 2026Loading...

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeev survived an assassination attempt outside his home in Moscow on February 6. The Russian Investigative Committee classified the incident as an attempted murder, while Foreign Minister Lavrov described it as a terrorist act by Ukraine. Two suspects were detained in Dubai, raising questions about the security of Russian intelligence services and potential internal conflicts within the GRU and FSB.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...

Yuri Ambrosimov was appointed CEO of Tupolev, replacing Aleksandr Bobryshev, amid ongoing legal disputes with the Russian Ministry of Defense over unfulfilled defense contracts. The Moscow Arbitration Court ordered Tupolev to pay 3 billion rubles for unmet obligations, impacting the delivery of strategic bombers and leading to further lawsuits. Production delays have hindered the modernization of key aircraft, including the Tu-22M3M and Tu-214.

Putin has signed an order to conscript 261,000 citizens for military service in 2026.