Analysis & Reports

The U.S. Air Force anticipates that the LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile will achieve initial capability in the early 2030s following a program revamp. The cost of the program has escalated significantly, prompting the Pentagon to restructure it to ensure national security. The Sentinel is set to replace the outdated Minuteman III missiles, with a new Milestone B decision expected by the end of 2026.

The U.S. Air Force announced that the LGM-35A Sentinel nuclear missile is projected to achieve initial capability in the early 2030s following a program revamp. The cost of the program has escalated significantly, prompting the Pentagon to restructure it to ensure national security. The Sentinel is set to replace the outdated Minuteman III missiles, with a new Milestone B decision anticipated by the end of 2026.

The World Defense Show occurred outside Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, showcasing various military themes and equipment. Numerous defense contractors and military organizations participated, highlighting advancements in small arms and other military equipment. This event reflects ongoing interests in defense procurement and military capabilities.

Piloda Defence, HAVELSAN, and VN Maritime signed a strategic Memorandum of Understanding in Naples on February 17th, 2026, to collaborate on unmanned and hybrid maritime platforms for the Italian market. This partnership aims to develop advanced naval solutions tailored to the operational needs of the Mediterranean region, with the first procurement contract expected in the first half of 2026. The collaboration emphasizes local industrial participation and aims to strengthen defense industry ties between Türkiye and Italy.

Israel's F-16I Sufa fighter jet is designed for long-range, high-complexity strike missions, featuring advanced avionics and a specialized electronic warfare suite. It incorporates conformal fuel tanks for extended range and is equipped with Israeli-developed weapons, including Python and Derby missiles. The aircraft is operated by the Israeli Air Force and is tailored to meet specific regional threats.

DARPA has designated the X-68A as its new air-launched drone, moving towards flight testing expected by the end of 2026. The drone is designed to operate ahead of traditional fighter aircraft and engage enemy targets using its own air-to-air missiles. Initial testing will validate its safe employment from an F-15 aircraft, with a focus on performance and integration with existing systems.

Raytheon has been awarded a contract by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to establish a domestic production capability for thin film lithium niobate (TFLN) wafers in the United States. This initiative aims to secure a supply chain for TFLN, which is essential for defense technology and communications systems. Production will transition to G&H in early 2026, ensuring reliable access for both defense and commercial industries.

U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are being tested by missile salvos, drones, and submarines, particularly in the South China Sea and Central Command area. The Navy is considering deploying laser-equipped escort ships to enhance defense capabilities. Each carrier is equipped with 100 to 125 interceptor missiles, which may be inadequate in mass attack scenarios. The USS Gerald R. Ford is currently deployed to deter threats from Iran.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, partially closing the vital shipping route for security reasons. The exercises involved the use of naval mines and missiles, demonstrating Iran's capability to disrupt maritime traffic. This action is part of ongoing tensions in the region, with potential implications for global oil markets and military responses from Western forces.

The Russian Air Force's MiG-35 fighter jet program has faced significant challenges, with under ten units produced and limited support from the military. Originally ordered in 2017, the aircraft is scheduled for delivery in 2027 but struggles to compete in the export market against established Western fighters. The MiG-35's lack of stealth capabilities and ongoing development issues hinder its operational effectiveness in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The U.S. Air Force's Sentinel nuclear missile program is set to complete its restructuring by 2026, achieving Milestone B certification, with initial capabilities expected in the early 2030s. The program, which includes the development of the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM, has faced significant cost increases and will require new silos for deployment. The first flight test is scheduled for 2027, as the Air Force works to modernize its nuclear capabilities.

Xinxing Import and Export Company showcased the XX-20 unmanned cargo aircraft at the World Defense Show in Riyadh. This aircraft can operate from rough terrain and is designed for logistical support, capable of carrying 1.2 tonnes of supplies. A new version, the XX-20.1, is expected to be released in mid-2026, with Malaysia as its first export customer.

The report highlights the historical performance and significance of several fighter jets, including the MiG-21, Sukhoi Su-7, Chengdu J-7, Convair F-102 Delta Dagger, and Yak-38. These aircraft, primarily from the mid-20th century, are noted for their limitations and current status, with some still in service in countries like North Korea and China. The analysis reflects on their operational roles and the evolution of fighter jet technology over time.

The report details the operational failures of several submarines, including the K-278 Komsomolets, which sank after a fire, and the USS S-4, which highlighted U.S. Navy rescue deficiencies. The I-400-class submarines were noted for their size but operational ineffectiveness, while the USS Tullibee was criticized for being underpowered. The K-19 faced numerous accidents due to rushed construction during the Cold War.

During the Hedgehog 2025 exercise in Estonia, a Ukrainian OPFOR team simulated the destruction of NATO forces, eliminating two battalions in a single day. The exercise involved 16,000 troops from 12 NATO nations and highlighted NATO's unpreparedness for drone warfare, as units moved without concealment. Military experts called for a comprehensive revamp of NATO's operational strategies in response to the lessons learned from the exercise.

The United States plans to deploy additional high-tech missile systems to the Philippines in 2024 to deter aggression in the South China Sea. This includes the Typhon missile system and an anti-ship missile launcher, which have raised concerns in China. U.S. and Philippine officials have discussed enhancing military collaboration and conducting joint exercises to strengthen regional security.

The United States plans to deploy additional high-tech missile systems to the Philippines in 2024 to deter aggression in the South China Sea. This includes the Typhon missile system and an anti-ship missile launcher, which have raised concerns in China. U.S. and Philippine officials have discussed enhancing military collaboration and conducting joint exercises to strengthen regional security.

The U.S. Navy built only three Seawolf-class submarines, commissioned in 1997, 1998, and 2005, due to budget constraints and the end of the Cold War. The submarines, designed for undersea dominance, faced production cuts from an initial plan of 29 hulls. Currently, all three submarines are homeported at Naval Base Kitsap in Washington, where they continue to serve despite the challenges in submarine production.

The F-15I Ra’am, used by the Israeli Air Force since the late 1990s, is optimized for long-range precision strikes, featuring Israeli-specific avionics and heavy payload capabilities. In contrast, the U.S. Air Force's F-15EX Eagle II focuses on air superiority and modernization for fifth-generation aircraft support. Both aircraft represent different operational philosophies and requirements within their respective air forces.

Israel has customized its F-35I Adir fighter jets to enhance electronic warfare capabilities against Iranian threats. The Israeli Air Force is set to acquire an additional 25 F-35 stealth fighters in 2024, reflecting its focus on regional security. These modifications include advanced jamming systems and integration of Israeli weapons, enabling effective countermeasures against ground-based air defenses.