Analysis & Reports

The U.S. Navy has partnered with Anduril to develop the Dive-XL, an extra-large unmanned underwater vessel as part of the Combat Autonomous Maritime Platform Project (CAMP). This vessel is designed to operate in GPS-denied environments, dive to depths of 200 meters, and carry various payloads. Anduril will conduct an extended demonstration of the Dive-XL within four months of the contract award, enhancing capabilities in maritime operations.

NATO's Cold Response 2026 exercise in Norway faced significant disruptions as key military assets withdrew, including the Italian Navy destroyer Andrea Doria and the French carrier strike group Charles de Gaulle, which was redirected to the Eastern Mediterranean. U.S. General Grynkewich emphasized a timeline for European strategic autonomy by 2035, highlighting the need for increased defense spending and readiness amid rising threats from Russia. The European Union has activated a defense spending escape clause for 17 member states to address these challenges.

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NATO conducted the Cold Response exercise in the Arctic in March 2026, emphasizing civilian preparedness. The EU announced defense partnerships with Australia, Iceland, and Ghana, reflecting a shift towards strategic autonomy. Tensions in EU-NATO relations escalated due to U.S. policies, prompting the EU to explore independent defense strategies. Cooperation between NATO and the EU continues to focus on countering hybrid threats.

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Mohamed Bailor Jalloh, a former Army National Guard member, killed one person and injured two others in a shooting at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, on Thursday. The FBI is investigating the incident as an act of terrorism. Jalloh, who had a prior conviction for attempting to support the Islamic State, was subdued by students before law enforcement arrived. The university has since suspended operations and classes.

U.S. and allied forces have been intercepting Iranian drones using fighter jets and attack helicopters in Kuwait and Jordan since last month. This operation has led to an 83% decrease in drone usage by Iran. However, the high costs of intercepting low-cost drones with expensive munitions have raised concerns about the sustainability of this tactic. Six U.S. soldiers were killed by an Iranian drone that evaded defenses.

Operation Epic Fury significantly degraded Iran's military capabilities, including its nuclear and missile infrastructure, and resulted in the deaths of key leaders. The U.S. Navy's F/A-18F Super Hornets and Nimitz-class carriers were involved in the operation. Despite the tactical victory, Iran is likely to seek to rebuild its military, influenced by a more militant regime under Mojtaba Khamenei. The operation raises questions about future U.S. and Israeli interventions in response to Iran's potential military resurgence.

The Israeli Air Force is acquiring 25 F-15EX aircraft for long-range missions, while the Qatar Air Force recently used its F-15QA variant to shoot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers. Poland and Saudi Arabia are also considering the F-15EX for their air forces, highlighting its significant payload capacity and advanced combat technology. The aircraft's capabilities position it as a key player in regional military dynamics.

The FS Charles de Gaulle, a 42,000-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is conducting operations in the Gulf of Oman and is scheduled for redeployment to the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2026 to protect maritime routes. The carrier, equipped with Areva K15 reactors and Rafale M fighters, has a notable combat history and plays a key role in NATO operations. France is also planning for a new generation of aircraft carriers by the late 2030s.

A fire broke out in the laundry spaces of the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) on March 12, 2026, while operating in the Red Sea. Two sailors were injured, but the fire was contained and did not compromise the ship's nuclear reactors or Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System. The carrier remains operational and continues its mission in support of U.S. military operations against Iran.

The U.S. Air Force is deploying 48 F-35A Lightning II stealth fighters to Misawa Air Base in Japan to bolster defense capabilities amid increasing Chinese military activity. This strategic move enhances the operational reach of U.S. forces in the Pacific and strengthens the U.S.-Japan alliance. The deployment is part of a broader effort to counter potential threats to regional stability, including the defense of Taiwan.

The U.S. Navy rotated the USS Robert Smalls, the last Ticonderoga-class cruiser homeported overseas, from Yokosuka, Japan, to San Diego, California. This change is part of a scheduled force rotation, with the USS Mustin replacing the Smalls. The USS Robert Smalls was previously assigned to Carrier Strike Group Five in support of U.S. military operations in the Indo-Pacific region.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei announced the continuation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and urged neighboring countries to close U.S. military bases. Iranian forces launched ballistic missiles targeting over 50 locations in Israel. The U.S. military has warned civilians to avoid ports along the Strait, while the Pentagon reported over $11 billion spent in the first six days of military action against Iran.

U.S. Marines Cpl. Malakai Obed and Cpl. Caden Perez conducted a rescue operation on January 15, 2026, at Camp Pendleton, California, after a vehicle rollover accident. They saved an unconscious mother and her three children trapped in the vehicle by breaking a window and pulling the children to safety. The Marines flagged down passing corpsmen for medical assistance and were later awarded Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medals for their heroism.

The report highlights the increased strategic friction in Iran following the transition of power to Mojtaba Khamenei. It identifies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary as critical centers of gravity in the ongoing conflict. The analysis emphasizes the challenges posed by modern warfare tactics, including the use of drones and ballistic missiles, which hinder traditional military objectives of enemy overthrow.

Operation Epic Fury has cost approximately $11.3 billion in its first six days, with U.S. forces striking around 6,000 targets in Iran. Seven American service members were killed, and about 140 were wounded, with eight in serious condition. Iran has vowed to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli forces following the airstrikes.

U.S. forces engaged in Operation Epic Fury have struck approximately 6,000 targets in Iran, resulting in seven American service members killed and around 140 wounded. The operation has cost an estimated $11.3 billion in its first six days. Iran's new supreme leader has vowed retaliation, while Congressional Democrats are introducing resolutions to limit U.S. military involvement without formal authorization.

The Pentagon's 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizes homeland defense and deterring China, emphasizing deterrence through denial and limited support for allies. The strategy calls for increased military presence along the First Island Chain and pressures allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. However, it notably omits explicit mention of Taiwan, causing concern among regional partners. The U.S. and the Philippines plan over 500 joint military activities for 2026, reflecting heightened defense cooperation.

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NATO conducted large-scale Cold Response 2026 exercises in Norway starting March 9, 2026, focusing on civilian preparedness and total defense concepts. The exercise reflects growing tensions within the transatlantic security architecture, particularly regarding defense procurement and the EU's efforts to diversify partnerships. The U.S. strategic shift has further complicated NATO's role in European defense, raising questions about future cooperation and capabilities.

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In 2026, NATO and the EU are undergoing significant transformations in response to transatlantic tensions, with the EU launching the Readiness 2030 initiative to boost defense spending. The Trump administration's policies have intensified debates on European strategic autonomy, leading to Spain's prohibition of U.S. strikes on Iran. The EU is also expanding defense partnerships with countries like Ghana, indicating a shift towards operational independence from American military support.

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The U.S. is recalibrating its military posture in the Indo-Pacific to address fiscal constraints and enhance deterrence against China. This includes deploying missile systems to the Philippines and increasing defense spending commitments from Japan and South Korea. The AUKUS partnership is advancing operational integration among U.S. and Australian forces, while China continues to expand its military presence in the region. The 2026 National Defense Strategy emphasizes a shift towards burden-sharing with allies.

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