Analysis & Reports

As of February 12, 2026, the Russian Air Force operates approximately 30 Su-57 stealth fighters, with a recent delivery of upgraded models. The aircraft has been primarily utilized in a limited capacity during the Ukraine conflict, while recent footage confirms its export to Algeria. Despite its advanced design, the Su-57's operational capabilities and numbers remain significantly lower compared to U.S. 5th-generation fighters like the F-35.

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is developing the H-20 stealth bomber, which could potentially reach operational status by 2026. With a range of 8,500 km and the capability to carry nuclear-capable cruise missiles, the H-20 poses a significant threat to U.S. territories such as Guam and Hawaii. Concerns exist regarding the mass deployment of these bombers, which could enable large-scale nuclear strikes.

The U.S. Air Force successfully integrated autonomous software into its prototype collaborative combat aircraft, YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A, marking a significant milestone in its CCA strategy. This integration, utilizing the Autonomy Government Reference Architecture (A-GRA), aims to enhance operational capabilities and prevent vendor lock-in. The Air Force plans to deploy at least 1,000 CCAs for various missions, including strike operations and reconnaissance, with ground testing set to begin in 2025.

The U.S. Air Force successfully integrated autonomous software into its prototype collaborative combat aircraft, marking a significant milestone in its CCA strategy. The Air Force plans to deploy at least 1,000 CCAs for missions such as strike operations and reconnaissance. Ground testing for the YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A began in spring 2025, utilizing the Autonomy Government Reference Architecture (A-GRA) for software integration.

A Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey made an emergency landing in Oahu, Hawaii, on February 3, 2023, due to a gearbox failure. The aircraft, part of the 1st Marine Aircraft Wing and VMM-268 squadron, landed safely with no injuries reported. This incident highlights ongoing safety concerns regarding the Osprey, which has experienced multiple crashes linked to similar mechanical issues. The Marine Corps is currently replacing gearboxes to enhance operational safety.

Helsing and HENSOLDT are collaborating to develop AI-enabled combat air systems, upgrading the CA-1 autonomous aircraft in Bavaria, Germany. The partnership aims to enhance the aircraft's capabilities with advanced sensor technologies and AI integration. The CA-1 is expected to be operational within four years, contributing to Europe's defense capacity.

The U.S. Navy plans to construct 20-25 Trump-class battleships by 2026, each costing $10-$15 billion. These ships are intended to incorporate advanced weapon systems like hypersonic missiles and railguns. However, critics warn that the program is strategically flawed against China's anti-access/area-denial capabilities and faces significant technological and funding hurdles.

Russia's United Aircraft Corporation delivered a new batch of Su-57 Felon stealth fighters to the Aerospace Forces, featuring enhanced avionics and weapons integration. This delivery is part of Russia's efforts to modernize its tactical fleet, which is largely reliant on older Soviet-era aircraft. Despite international sanctions limiting production, the Su-57 is considered crucial for maintaining a credible fifth-generation capability in the face of NATO advancements.

Shield AI representatives discussed the significance of trusted autonomy in operating drones in environments where GPS cannot be relied upon. They emphasized the need for sovereign control over UAS operations, particularly in denied environments. The conversation highlighted the evolving landscape of unmanned aerial systems.

Fortem Technologies will deploy counter-drone systems at 11 venues for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, starting June 11. This multimillion-dollar contract from the Department of Homeland Security aims to protect matches from hostile drones using technologies like DroneHunter and signal jamming. The initiative is part of a broader $115 million investment in counter-drone technology to secure major events.

The US Army successfully defeated drone swarms using the Coyote Block 3 Non-Kinetic counter-uncrewed aircraft system during an exercise in the United States.

The U.S. Air Force is delivering 126 F-35 Lightning II aircraft without their intended AN/APG-85 radar systems due to engineering mismatches. This delivery began in June 2025 and is expected to conclude in September 2026. The radar system's development has faced significant delays, impacting the aircraft's operational capabilities. The Block 4 modernization of the F-35 is now projected to be completed by 2031, five years later than initially planned.

China is building the Type 004 Supercarrier, projected to carry over 100 aircraft, as it nears completion of sea trials in February 2026. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly expanding its naval capabilities, with the Type 003 Fujian already in trials and the Shandong deployed near Taiwan. This development poses a significant challenge to U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific.

The U.S. Navy is ramping up construction of Columbia-class submarines, with the first, District of Columbia, expected to be delivered in 2028. Full-rate construction will begin in 2031, and the second submarine, Wisconsin, is on track for a 2030 delivery. An acceleration plan has been successfully implemented to enhance the construction schedule.

The J-15 "Flying Shark" serves as a critical component of the People’s Liberation Army Navy's fleet air defense capabilities. Operating from ski-jump carriers in China, it faces limitations in payload and fuel capacity. Recent upgrades have improved its capabilities, but it remains vulnerable in contested airspace and is not designed for deep strike missions. The J-15 is a transitional platform, enabling China to develop its carrier aviation skills and prepare for future advancements in naval air power.

A Louisiana National Guardsman left an M4 carbine in a bathroom at the Lafitte Hotel and Bar on Bourbon Street on February 8. The weapon was recovered the same day, and the incident is under investigation. Service members are required to maintain accountability of their weapons, and losing one can lead to administrative consequences.

China's H-20 stealth bomber program remains stalled, with no significant progress since its announcement in 2016. In contrast, the Chengdu J-36 fighter program is advancing rapidly, with prototypes expected by late 2025. U.S. intelligence indicates that the H-20's capabilities are inferior to those of the B-21 Raider, and it is not expected to be operational until the 2030s. Recent leaks about the program may serve as a political smokescreen following leadership changes in the Chinese military.

Rostec delivered a new batch of upgraded BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to the Russian Ministry of Defense in January, exceeding shipment targets by 40 percent. The vehicles feature enhancements in combat effectiveness and protection, including modern electronic warfare systems and improved armor. Rostec continues to modernize the BMP-3 based on operational experience from the war in Ukraine, despite reports of significant losses of this vehicle type during the conflict.

The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) showcased the Wing-Loong X combat drone at the Singapore Airshow from February 3-7, 2024, highlighting its potential for international sales. Experts suggest that the drone's competitive pricing and capabilities could attract countries looking to enhance their maritime surveillance and strike capabilities. Existing operators of Chinese drones, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may consider the WL-X for their naval operations.

General Stephen Davis assessed that China's H-20 stealth bomber program is not yet a credible threat, citing significant engineering challenges. The H-20 is intended to enhance China's long-range strike capabilities, targeting locations such as Guam and Hawaii. However, the U.S. maintains a technological advantage with its existing bombers, the B-2 and the upcoming B-21.