Analysis & Reports

Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles announced on April 14, 2023, that the country will increase its investment in drone capabilities and autonomous weapon systems by up to $5 billion AUD. This decision is influenced by the extensive use of low-cost drones in the Ukraine crisis and Iran conflict. Over the next decade, Australia plans to invest between $12 billion to $15 billion AUD to develop a comprehensive drone capability, including the Ghost Bat drone and Ghost Shark submarine.

Iran restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, imposing fees and asserting control over shipping lanes. In response, the U.S. Navy announced a blockade targeting Iranian shipping in April 2026. Japan and South Korea, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, began releasing strategic reserves and implementing fuel controls due to the economic disruption caused by the crisis. The International Energy Agency reported a significant oil supply shock, with prices spiking.

The Balikatan military exercise, involving 17,000 troops from the U.S. and allied nations, is set to take place in the Philippines from April 20 to May 8, 2026. This exercise aims to enhance regional security and interoperability among allies while the U.S. simultaneously manages a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The scale of participation reflects a commitment to multi-domain operations and strengthening political alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

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The U.S. and Israel are engaged in airstrikes against Iran, impacting global power dynamics and military resource allocation. This conflict is providing financial benefits to Russia and strategic advantages to China, as both nations monitor U.S. military effectiveness. The ongoing situation risks escalating into a broader conflict, affecting regional stability and U.S. military commitments elsewhere.

In mid-2024, the U.S. military, through Project Maven, deployed AI warfare systems that significantly enhanced target engagement capabilities, increasing the number of targets hit daily from under 100 to 5,000. The Maven Smart System is now utilized across all military branches and is being adopted by NATO. Drew Cukor, a former Marine Corps colonel, played a pivotal role in this transformation, advocating for the integration of AI into military operations to improve efficiency and reduce civilian casualties.

On April 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense and Indonesian Defense Ministry formalized a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership at the Pentagon, enhancing military ties. Concurrently, discussions on a non-binding overflight agreement for U.S. military aircraft through Indonesian airspace were confirmed. This partnership aims to improve military organization and training while allowing access to advanced technology without compromising Indonesia's non-alignment policy. Meanwhile, China is advancing its military capabilities through AI integration.

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Three opposition parties in Japan submitted a proposal to the government urging stricter controls on weapon exports in response to plans to relax existing restrictions. The proposal emphasizes adherence to pacifist principles and suggests limiting exports to specific equipment like drones and air defense systems. Concerns were raised about the potential impact on Japan's international reputation and the implications of becoming a 'war-exporting nation.'

On April 13, 2023, the People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command and the Chinese foreign ministry criticized the Philippines for its provocative actions in the South China Sea, particularly regarding illegal activities at Ren'ai Reef and joint military exercises with the U.S. and Australia. They reaffirmed China's territorial claims and called for joint development to maintain regional stability.

Gulf countries are urgently procuring air defense systems due to the depletion of their missile stocks amid ongoing conflicts. The UAE and Bahrain have consumed over 75% of their Patriot-3 interceptors. Saudi Arabia has requested expedited delivery of the Cheongung II system from South Korea. Additionally, Ukraine is offering low-cost drone interception solutions to these nations. This situation reflects a significant shift in defense procurement strategies in the region.

US military leaders are adapting to the challenges posed by commercial satellite imagery in military operations, particularly regarding the Iran conflict. On April 1, 2023, Gen. Chance Saltzman emphasized the need for the military to recognize and adapt to the transparency brought by commercial satellite imagery. US government officials have urged firms to limit public access to imagery of the conflict zone to protect operational security.

The U.S. military has redirected significant assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, withdrawing missile defense systems from South Korea and a Marine unit from Japan. This shift has raised concerns among allies in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea about the U.S. commitment to regional security. The Trump-Xi summit has been delayed, reflecting the broader strategic implications of the conflict.

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China is closely monitoring U.S. responses to the Iran War to develop strategies for a potential blockade of Taiwan. The PRC aims to exploit American economic vulnerabilities and utilize information warfare tactics to manipulate U.S. decision-making. This learning process could provide China with a significant advantage in a future crisis involving Taiwan.

The U.S. Air Force is facing challenges with the F-22 and F-35's missile capabilities as the Chinese PL-15 missile can engage targets at ranges up to 300 km, surpassing the AIM-120D's maximum range of 185 km. This has prompted the development of the AIM-260 missile to enhance U.S. air combat effectiveness. Recent tests have underscored the need for improved missile technology to counter evolving threats from the People's Liberation Army Air Force.

Japan has deployed long-range missiles to its Self-Defense Forces bases in Kumamoto and Shizuoka as of April 2023. The missiles, capable of reaching targets in China and the Korean Peninsula, have raised safety concerns among local residents. The government has faced criticism for not addressing public worries and for the legality of the deployment, which contradicts previous agreements regarding missile bases. This action signifies a shift in Japan's military strategy towards offensive capabilities.

The Chinese military released a short film titled 'Ask the Brave' to honor the heroes defending the border. The film highlights the bravery and dedication of soldiers, portraying them as fearless and always ready to protect the nation. It emphasizes the importance of their mission and instills a sense of national pride.

Japan's Ministry of Defense allocated ¥11.1 billion in its FY 2026 budget for the acquisition of five wide-area UAVs to replace its Apache helicopter fleet. The procurement includes options for armed platforms, with the Bayraktar TB2S and Heron Mk II as leading candidates. This move is part of a broader strategy to transition to unmanned systems, with testing for the TB2S expected to conclude by FY 2025 and plans to establish a dedicated UAV unit by FY 2032.

China flew a second prototype of the J-36 stealth aircraft in October 2025, revealing significant design changes including a tailless structure and three engines. This development indicates China's rapid advancements in sixth-generation combat air systems, aiming to enhance its military capabilities and compete with U.S. designs. The J-36 may function as a long-range strike platform, reflecting a shift in China's airpower strategy.

Countries are increasingly developing 'guardian' satellites to protect their space assets from threats. Japan, France, India, and Germany are actively pursuing these technologies, with France planning to deploy laser-equipped satellites by 2024. India is set to test a 'guardian' satellite later this year, while Germany has introduced its first space security strategy. These developments reflect a growing trend in space defense capabilities.

USS Nimitz is deployed to South America for Southern Seas 2026 military exercises, marking its third final voyage. The aging carrier, over 50 years old, remains operational due to the underperformance of newer Ford-class carriers. This deployment aims to strengthen U.S. military partnerships and demonstrate presence in the Western Hemisphere amid ongoing global operations.

A wargame assessment revealed that the U.S. Air Force is unprepared to defend Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion by 2035. Conducted in April 2026, the assessment involved 60 participants and highlighted the inadequacies of current U.S. airpower. The findings indicate that without modernization and increased capabilities, the U.S. risks failing to meet its security commitments in the Western Pacific.