Analysis & Reports

The U.S. military has expended over 11,000 munitions in the Iran War, raising concerns about its capability to sustain operations against China in a potential Taiwan conflict. The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to prevent a successful Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, highlighting the challenges posed by China's advanced military capabilities. It concludes that the margin for effective U.S. deterrence is thinner than previously acknowledged, as Chinese planners observe U.S. inventory depletion in real time.

The U.S. Department of State approved a Foreign Military Sale to Singapore for 45 M30A2 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System-Alternative Warhead pods, valued at $83 million. This deal includes telemetry kits and engineering services, with Lockheed Martin as the principal contractor. The sale aims to bolster Singapore's defense capabilities and support U.S. strategic interests in Asia.

On March 31, 2026, Japan's Defense Minister announced the deployment of long-range missiles capable of striking enemy bases at Kumamoto and Shizuoka. This marks the first time Japan has deployed offensive weapons exceeding 1000 kilometers in range, igniting widespread protests and raising constitutional concerns regarding Japan's defense policy. The deployment is viewed as a significant shift from Japan's traditional exclusively defense-oriented stance, prompting debates about its implications for regional security and constitutional integrity.

Tanaka TakashiFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

Rheinmetall and Boeing are collaborating to produce the MQ-28 Ghost Bat drone for the German Bundeswehr, with plans to deliver it by 2029. The drone must meet specific requirements, including stealth capabilities and a range exceeding 1000 kilometers. This partnership is potentially supported by a recent EU-Australia free trade agreement, and the MQ-28 has already undergone extensive testing with around 150 flights completed since 2021.

China announced a defense budget of 1.94 trillion RMB for 2026, marking a 6.9% increase, as part of its ongoing military modernization efforts. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is focusing on enhancing mechanization, information technology, and advanced weaponry. The naval fleet is set to expand to 435 vessels by 2030, while the nuclear arsenal may grow to 1500 warheads by 2035. These developments reflect a strategic shift towards military deterrence and capability enhancement.

Li MinghuiFri Apr 03 2026Loading...

The U.S. Air Force has been flying a full-scale Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) demonstrator since 2020, while China unveiled its J-36 and J-50 stealth aircraft prototypes in December 2024. The U.S. program emphasizes rapid development and integration of advanced systems, whereas China's prototypes are still in early testing stages and lack operational maturity. This indicates that the U.S. maintains a technological edge in sixth-generation airpower despite China's recent advancements.

On April 2, 2026, the Global Combat Air Programme Agency awarded a £686 million contract to Edgewing for the design and development of a next-generation combat aircraft. This contract marks a significant step in the international collaboration between Italy, Japan, and the UK, aimed at enhancing military capabilities through advanced technology.

China is experimenting with containerized missile systems on commercial cargo ships in the Taiwan Strait, potentially converting them into armed platforms. This development could complicate U.S. Navy operations by obscuring target identification. The modified vessels may enhance China's missile capacity and support its regional military strategy.

Gulf countries are reassessing their defense capabilities in response to the ongoing conflict with Iran, focusing on restocking AMD inventories and exploring new defense technologies. The conflict has revealed a split between Gulf nations and the US regarding military preparedness. Economic costs from Iranian attacks have prompted a strategic shift in defense procurement and alliances, with the GCC likely evolving its security functions post-conflict.

Italy, Japan, and the U.K. signed a £686 million contract to continue work on the GCAP fighter program for three months. This stopgap measure addresses funding delays and allows for key design and engineering activities to proceed. The contract is significant as it marks the first time the three nations have signed a single contract with the joint venture Edgewing, which is responsible for the program's development.

ST Engineering secured a six-year subcontract to design and supply systems for eight Missile Gun Boats for the Kuwaiti navy. The contract, valued at 600 million Singapore dollars, includes building three vessels in Singapore. The first vessel is expected to be delivered in mid-2027, following a previous deal for eight offshore patrol vessels between EDGE Group and the Kuwaiti government.

China is currently assessing its military capabilities and strategies regarding Taiwan, drawing lessons from recent conflicts, including the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. The U.S. intelligence community has revised its assessment, indicating that no invasion of Taiwan is expected in 2027. China's People's Liberation Army is preparing for potential military action, with three operational aircraft carriers and a significant number of advanced fighter jets.

The US Department of State authorized a potential Foreign Military Sale to Singapore, involving the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System-Alternative Warhead (GMLRS-AW) valued at $83.14 million.

Alex Wong, President of Hanwha Group, called for a practical partnership between the U.S. and South Korea based on industrial capacity during the 41st Sejong National Strategy Forum in South Korea on April 2, 2026. He emphasized the importance of deepening defense industrial cooperation and building long-term economic partnerships, highlighting Korea's strengths in advanced manufacturing.

On March 31, Japan deployed Type 25 Surface-to-Ship Missiles and Type 25 High-Speed Glide Bombs at military bases in Kumamoto City and Shizuoka Prefecture. This action signifies a shift in Japan's defense policy towards offensive military capabilities, raising concerns among local residents and regional stability. The missiles have a range of approximately 1000 kilometers, which exceeds Japan's territorial limits.

Japan Self-Defense Forces deployed long-range missile systems capable of striking enemy bases in Kumamoto and Shizuoka on March 31, 2023. Russian officials criticized this move as a dangerous shift away from Japan's pacifist constitution, indicating a trend towards militarization. The Russian Foreign Ministry is evaluating Japan's actions to ensure adequate defense capabilities.

China's PLA Navy operated three aircraft carriers—Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian—simultaneously at sea for the first time, marking a significant step in its naval capabilities. This operation indicates China's shift towards power projection beyond regional defense. The PLAN aims to expand its fleet to five or six carriers to enhance its operational reach across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Disruptions in maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping global trade and security dynamics. The U.S. Navy and allied forces are adjusting their maritime patrols in response to increased risks in the Bab al-Mandeb and Black Sea regions. A significant rise in traffic through Istanbul is anticipated, while the Panama Canal faces potential disruptions. The interconnected nature of these chokepoints necessitates coordinated military and logistical responses to maintain stability.

The U.S. Air Force plans to procure approximately 200 F-47 aircraft, reflecting concerns about attrition in modern air combat. The operational environment in the Indo-Pacific, particularly around Taiwan, poses significant challenges, with expectations of high aircraft loss rates. Historical lessons from the F-22 program highlight the risks of underestimating the required fleet size for sustained conflict.

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is developing the H-20 stealth bomber, which has faced delays and potential issues with stealth technology and engine performance. Since 2025, there has been a significant lack of information regarding its development. Experts suggest that the H-20 may not be operational until the 2030s, potentially lagging behind US advancements in next-generation combat aircraft.