Analysis & Reports

The USS Cincinnati conducted a port call at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia last week, marking a significant moment in U.S.-Cambodia relations. Analysts warn that this visit may provoke a response from China, which views Cambodia as part of its sphere of influence. The base, rebuilt by China, is crucial for projecting military power in the region, and the U.S. presence could alter the strategic balance in Southeast Asia.

Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force is adapting its strategy to address multi-layered maritime threats in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan as of early 2026. The increasing presence of the Chinese Coast Guard has necessitated a reevaluation of operational doctrines. Japan is enhancing its Coast Guard capabilities while facing challenges in anti-submarine warfare due to advancements in submarine technology. The Aegis destroyers are tasked with both ballistic missile defense and surface attack roles, highlighting the complexity of Japan's defense posture.

Tanaka TakashiFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

In late January 2026, high-ranking officials Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were dismissed from the People's Liberation Army amid a corruption crackdown. This event highlights systemic corruption within the PLA, impacting military readiness and decision-making. The political context suggests that China is unlikely to initiate military action against Taiwan in the near future due to internal instability and a focus on consolidating military loyalty.

Li MinghuiFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

High concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were detected in foam emerging from manholes near the U.S. military base in Okinawa, Japan, raising health concerns among local residents. The U.S. military denied any connection to the contamination, while Okinawa officials have requested access to the base for further investigation. Local experts confirmed the foam's toxicity, prompting demands for accountability and transparency regarding the pollution source.

Huang Xuhua led the first extreme deep dive test of a Chinese nuclear submarine on April 29, 1988, achieving a successful outcome that set a new record. Today marks the one-year anniversary of his death, and the report pays tribute to his contributions to China's military capabilities.

Boeing announced the termination of its F-15 partnership with Indonesia on February 5, 2026, indicating a shift in U.S. military strategy in the Asia-Pacific. Indonesia opted for the European M-346 trainer, reflecting its non-aligned stance and preference for flexible defense partnerships. Meanwhile, Japan is modernizing its F-15J fleet to counter regional threats, particularly from China's expanding military capabilities. This transition highlights the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Japan defense cooperation and Indonesia's strategic autonomy in defense procurement.

Tanaka TakashiThu Feb 05 2026Loading...

Iran focuses on U.S. aircraft carriers, employing swarm warfare tactics to create a perceived vulnerability and inflict psychological damage without direct destruction. This strategy aims to generate a strategic shock in energy markets and public opinion, leveraging the symbolic weight of the carriers. The ongoing situation reflects Iran's understanding of the escalatory dynamics involved in targeting such high-profile military assets.

Indonesia officially announced the procurement of 24 M-346 advanced trainer aircraft from Leonardo on February 5, 2026, signaling a strategic shift in its defense procurement away from U.S. F-15 fighter jets. This decision reflects Indonesia's intent to diversify its military sources and enhance its strategic autonomy in the face of regional geopolitical dynamics.

Li MinghuiThu Feb 05 2026Loading...

U.S. lawmakers express concerns about nuclear proliferation following the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2023. Allies in Europe, Japan, and South Korea are considering developing their own nuclear deterrence systems. The report highlights rising tensions and the potential for a new arms race, particularly in light of China's rapid nuclear weapons development.

Boeing announced that its proposed sale of F-15EX fighter jets to Indonesia is no longer active, as Jakarta has not finalized a contract. Meanwhile, Indonesia has acquired Rafale fighters and is exploring various aircraft options. Boeing continues to support existing military products in Indonesia and is focused on upgrading F-15s for Japan and South Korea. Singapore is also expected to upgrade its F-15SG fleet.

The U.S. Navy is evaluating whether to retire or extend the service life of the USS Nimitz (CVN-68) due to its aging status and delays in Ford-class carrier production. This decision, influenced by strategic needs and shipyard capacity, will impact the Navy's readiness and presence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Nimitz's potential upgrade is costly and may not yield significant benefits compared to investing in newer capabilities.

North Korea is actively pursuing the development of nuclear missiles on submarines, which could significantly alter regional security dynamics. This shift may provoke preemptive military actions from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, as they seek to neutralize the threat before it materializes. The North's current nuclear arsenal remains vulnerable, but the introduction of undersea capabilities could lead to increased belligerence from Pyongyang.

Embraer is advancing discussions with Thai Aviation Industries to establish TAI as a local authorized service center for the Royal Thai Armed Forces' ERJ135 fleet. This initiative, expected to be implemented by the end of 2026, aims to enhance in-country maintenance capabilities and is part of a broader Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen Thailand's aerospace and defense ecosystem.

Russian defense companies were absent from the Singapore Airshow from February 3-8, 2025, indicating a significant shift in their arms-export strategy. This absence reflects a shrinking and increasingly concentrated arms-export industry, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is actively pursuing military cooperation agreements in the Middle East, as evidenced by recent engagements with countries like Myanmar and Algeria.

Sisu Auto and ST Engineering signed an expression of interest in Singapore on February 3, 2026, to advance technology cooperation for developing Arctic-capable mobility platforms. This collaboration focuses on the SISU GTT articulated tracked vehicle and the TAURUS remotely operated vehicle system. Both companies plan to showcase their products at GRIFFIN 2026.

Boeing has confirmed the cancellation of its plans to sell 24 F-15EX Eagle II fighter jets to Indonesia, a deal that was initially announced in 2023. The Indonesian government did not formalize procurement plans after the agreement was made. This decision follows Boeing's previous successful sale of AH-64 Apache helicopters to Indonesia in 2018 and comes as Indonesia pursues other fighter jet acquisitions, including a deal with Turkey for KAAN jets.

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi renewed her call to amend the Constitution to explicitly recognize the Self-Defense Forces during a campaign speech in Joetsu, Niigata Prefecture. She argued that this change is necessary to protect service members' pride and address current security realities. Despite challenges in the legislature, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party remains committed to this constitutional revision as a core policy objective, especially in light of regional security pressures.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Japan's acceleration of its re-militarization process threatens peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. He highlighted Japan's plans to abolish constitutional restrictions, increase its defense budget, and enhance military exercises with the U.S. and allies. Russia has conveyed its concerns to Japan about actions that could escalate tensions in the region.

Australia is considering alternatives to the AUKUS nuclear submarine program, potentially opting for B-2 stealth bombers due to delays and trust issues with the U.S. and U.K. The AUKUS agreement, aimed at countering China, has faced skepticism regarding its implementation, with experts suggesting a shift in strategy to enhance Australia's military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.

The division of Korea is now a permanent feature of the international order, shaped by great-power competition, particularly between the U.S. and China. This geopolitical landscape has made the prospect of reunification unrealistic, as both North and South Korea are influenced by their respective alliances and security interests. The expectation that North Korea would eventually align with the South has been replaced by a structural and geopolitical reality that favors division.