Analysis & Reports

Iran launched a systematic campaign of ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf Cooperation Council states in March 2026, with the UAE intercepting 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones. The strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Dubai and Bahrain, indicating a shift in Iranian strategy. Saudi Arabia also reported intercepting multiple Iranian missiles and drones. The US military adjusted its presence in the region amid the escalating conflict.

Ahmed Al-RashidThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

NATO commenced its Cold Response 2026 exercise in the Norwegian Arctic on March 9, emphasizing civilian preparedness and total defense concepts. On the same day, NATO missile defense systems intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. European defense strategy is diversifying, with increased arms imports from South Korea and Israel, while the UK is stepping up its leadership role in European security.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

France deployed 10 warships, including the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, to the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2023 to enhance regional security and protect its interests. This unprecedented naval operation aims to position France as a credible security partner amid shifting alliances in the Middle East following Iranian missile strikes. The deployment includes 8 frigates and 2 helicopter carriers, demonstrating France's military capability and commitment to its defense agreements in the region.

Iranian President Raisi stated that the only way to end the military conflict is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay compensation, and provide guarantees against future aggression. This statement was made on March 11, 2023, in Tehran, emphasizing Iran's position in the ongoing conflict.

On November 11, China called for an immediate ceasefire in the Lebanon-Israel conflict during a UN Security Council meeting. The Chinese representative condemned attacks on civilians and urged adherence to international humanitarian law. The UN reported over 4000 fire activities in Lebanon since March, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict. China emphasized the need for international support to stabilize Lebanon and restore peace in the region.

USS Florida (SSGN 728) completed a 727-day deployment starting in August 2022, operating across the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe. The submarine, armed with 154 Tomahawk missiles, showcased US military capabilities and deterrence amid rising global tensions. Despite its significant role, USS Florida is scheduled for retirement in 2026, raising concerns about a potential conventional strike gap in the US Navy's capabilities.

The U.S. military has been reported to extensively use AI tools in military operations against Venezuela and Iran, raising significant ethical concerns regarding warfare. China's defense ministry has expressed opposition to the unrestricted militarization of AI, emphasizing the need for human oversight in military applications. The U.S. Secretary of Defense has been advocating for an 'AI-first' combat force, which has prompted discussions about the implications of AI on military ethics and sovereignty.

The U.S. Air Force faces criticism for focusing on air denial rather than air superiority, which is crucial for operational success. Recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate that without air superiority, military operations become constrained and costly. The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to reaffirm its commitment to achieving air control to effectively project power and sustain operations.

NATO conducted Arctic exercises in March 2026 involving approximately 25,000 troops from 14 countries, including the United States and Denmark. The U.S. has set a 2027 deadline for Europe to assume NATO's conventional defense capabilities, prompting significant shifts in European defense strategies. Germany is increasing its defense budget and procurement focus, while France proposed extending its nuclear deterrent to other European nations.

Alexandra ReevesWed Mar 11 2026Loading...

Iran is negotiating with China for a $5 billion military package that includes CM-302 anti-ship missiles and J-20 fighter jets. The discussions, led by Deputy Defense Minister Massoud Oraei, have accelerated following recent conflicts. This deal aims to enhance Iran's military capabilities against regional adversaries, particularly after the degradation of its air defenses.

The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) is set to begin its retirement process in May 2026 due to aging nuclear reactors, with the U.S. Navy transitioning to the Gerald R. Ford-class carriers. The USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79) is expected to enter service in 2027, ensuring continued naval capability. Despite the retirement, the U.S. Navy will maintain a robust fleet of 10 nuclear-powered carriers, supporting operations in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific regions.

China is poised to potentially blockade Taiwan, which would severely disrupt global semiconductor supply and impact military capabilities. This blockade could lead to a $10.6 trillion economic loss globally, significantly affecting the U.S. defense industrial base reliant on Taiwanese microchips. The situation is exacerbated by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the critical nature of Taiwan's role in global trade and military technology.

Australia announced the deployment of an E-7A Wedgetail early-warning aircraft and 85 troops to the Middle East on March 10, 2023, to bolster airspace security against Iranian threats. The Royal Australian Air Force will also assist in replenishing the United Arab Emirates' stocks of AIM-120 air-to-air missiles. This deployment is part of Australia's commitment to support regional defense without engaging in offensive operations against Iran.

On March 11, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Defense condemned the U.S. and Israel's military strikes against Iran, stating they violate international law. The spokesperson urged an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to diplomatic negotiations to ensure peace in the Middle East.

On March 9, 2026, Japan received modified Type 12 anti-ship missile launchers at Kumamoto. The U.S. is relocating THAAD systems from South Korea to the Middle East, raising concerns among regional allies. Japan plans to deploy Aegis destroyers to the Arabian Sea, while local officials express concerns over the secrecy of the missile deployment amid increasing Chinese military activities.

Tanaka TakashiWed Mar 11 2026Loading...

The global arms trade has increased by 9.2% over the past five years, driven primarily by European demand, particularly in response to the threat from Russia. European countries now account for 33% of global arms imports, with significant contributions from the U.S. and Germany. Germany has emerged as the fourth largest arms exporter, with a substantial portion of its exports directed to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia's arms exports have sharply declined due to the ongoing conflict and international pressure.

Dassault Aviation is ramping up production of the Rafale fighter jets to 35 units annually by 2029-2030, addressing a backlog of 175 export units. The F5 standard will enhance capabilities with advanced radar and hypersonic missile integration. Ukraine plans to purchase 100 Rafales, while Serbia's order of 12 jets may provoke Russia. The upgrades aim to improve the aircraft's performance in modern combat scenarios.

Speculation about a military draft has arisen following U.S. military operations in Iran that began on February 28, 2023. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's comments regarding troop deployment options have fueled public concern. However, implementing a draft would require Congressional approval and is considered politically unpopular.

The U.S. Army is preparing for a potential invasion of Iran in 2026, facing significant challenges due to the country's geography and military strategy. Despite overwhelming technological and budgetary advantages, the complexities of occupying a nation four times the size of Iraq and the threat of asymmetric warfare from Iran complicate the operation. Logistical support for hundreds of thousands of troops would be critical amidst missile attacks and insurgent activities.

French President Macron announced the deployment of naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz on October 9, 2023, to ensure maritime security and protect European interests. The deployment includes 8 naval vessels, an aircraft carrier strike group, and 2 amphibious assault ships. Macron stated that this operation is a response to recent threats in the region, particularly concerning Iranian drone attacks.