Summary and Key Points: As Iran’s popular revolt intensifies, the Trump administration has signaled that “help is on the way,” backed by a massive naval armada currently massing in the Middle East.
-The USS Abraham Lincoln and the possible incoming USS George H.W. Bush are poised to lead a potential multinational coalition, alongside RAF Typhoons and F-35s.
-With over 80 cargo flights bolstering regional air defenses, analysts expect “decapitating strikes” against IRGC leadership to be on the table.
-As Israeli PM Netanyahu pushes for the complete deletion of Iran’s nuclear program, the world awaits a military intervention that could trigger a total regime collapse.
The USS Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush: Supercarriers Heading to Iran for a War?
Since the beginning of Iran’s popular revolt, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has been issuing statements to the protestors in the streets of Iranian cities. As Iran’s security forces gun down what are now estimated to be tens of thousands of unarmed civilians, the White House has been declaring, “Help is on the way.”
Iranian protesters hear “help” and understand it as meaning a series of targeted strikes on the Islamic Republic’s leaders, as well as against the security units using automatic weapons on crowds in major cities protesting against the mullahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The deployment of U.S. forces into nearby waters, which began in late January, includes a “massive armada,” in Trump’s parlance, of naval vessels, stealth bombers, and advanced air and missile defense systems. As more military units continue to leave their regular bases and patrol areas and deploy into the region, there are increasing expectations for U.S. action against the IRGC and Iran’s clerical leadership.
USS Abraham Lincoln. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
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INDIAN OCEAN, (Jan 18, 2012) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) transits the Indian Ocean. Abraham Lincoln is in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility as part of a deployment to the western Pacific and Indian Oceans to support coalition efforts. (U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist Eric S. Powell/ Released)
Massacres have been so widespread that Iranian protesters tell the BBC and other news outlets, “We all know someone who has been killed.”
Increasing Indications – Two Supercarriers for U.S. Navy Near Iran Soon?
It has taken weeks to move U.S. military assets into the region, but there are enough present now to sustain crippling attacks on the regime. One of the earliest of the more visible redeployments was the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered carrier.
The accompanying carrier strike group (CSG) includes the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Frank E. Petersen, Jr. (DDG-121), USS Spruance (DDG-111) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112). This is the third time the CSG has been initially deployed to the Indo-Pacific only to then be redirected to the Middle East.
Nimitz-class carriers can typically conduct more than 120 aircraft sorties per day during sustained operations, according to U.S. Navy officials. They have a surge capacity to double that number in a 24-hour period, but there are limits to how long such activity can be sustained.
Another Aircraft Carrier Might Be on the Way
The Lincoln is now expected to be joined by a second carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77). That carrier’s arrival would suggest that an attack on Iran more significant than last summer’s Operation Midnight Hammer could be only hours away.
USS George HW Bush Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN 77) on builder’s trials, 2/13/2009. The ship, named after the nation’s 41st president, is the 10th and final Nimitz-class, nuclear-powered carrier built at Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding-Newport News. Photo by John Whalen, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding.
Preparations for Joint Operations
Other reports suggest there will be assets beyond the carriers involved in any attack, and that an air campaign may involve foreign partners.
Defensive systems are as important as offensive ones, in these circumstances. The X account OSINTdefender posted that more than 80 military cargo flights by the U.S. Air Force linked to the transfer of air-defense equipment have been observed. These include both C-17A Globemaster IIIs and C-5M Super Galaxy cargo lifters. These flights have arrived since mid-January at bases in the Middle East. Defensive preparations across the region signal that a set of strikes on Iran is close to being finalized—deployment could very well be complete by Friday.
In the meantime, the Royal Air Force (RAF) has deployed Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft and F-35s to Cyprus—these could join in air attacks on Iran. Other RAF aircraft have been sent to Qatar.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also arrived in Washington a week earlier than originally planned. He is reportedly pushing for a much harder line in any negotiations with Iran and is demanding a complete deletion of Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
ARABIAN GULF (Sept. 11, 2014) Sailors direct an F/A-18E Super Hornet attached to the Tomcatters of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 31 on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77). George H.W. Bush is supporting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Joshua Card/Released) 140911-N-CZ979-008
Some of Netanyahu’s Cabinet members indicated that Israel is still considering unilateral action. This could happen even if the White House reaches a deal with Tehran. Energy Minister Eli Cohen told the country’s Army Radio on Tuesday that Israel views Iran’s ballistic missiles as a grave threat and “reserves the option to act” should any agreement not meet the required security needs.
If the U.S., Israel, and other partners decide on an all-out attack, what follows is hard to project. Most experts believe that a regime collapse could create chaos in the country or lead to an even more despotic order. In the meantime, the world waits for a sign that the next step is being taken. No one knows in what direction it might lead.
About the Author: Military Expert Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.