AEVEX lifts 2026 forecast to $840 million after drone-boat deal

AEVEX Corp. raised its 2026 revenue forecast by about $120 million at the midpoint on Wednesday, its first report since buying drone-boat maker BlackSea Technologies, as sales from its core drone business more than made up for shrinking Ukraine-related work.

The Solana Beach, California, company now expects full-year revenue of $820 million to $840 million, up from $700 million to $720 million in August, according to its third-quarter results, released after the market close. Third-quarter revenue rose 56.5% to $189.7 million from $121.2 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA, a profit measure that strips out interest, taxes, depreciation and some other costs, climbed to $30.8 million from $17.8 million.

Chief Executive Roger Wells said the quarter, customer demand and the BlackSea deal gave AEVEX “the confidence to raise our full-year outlook.”

Ukraine-related revenue fell to $52.5 million in the third quarter from $167.7 million in the first, according to the company’s investor presentation. What AEVEX calls core revenue rose to $137.2 million from $49.0 million over the same stretch.

The Pentagon announced in April 2022 that it would send Ukraine more than 121 Phoenix Ghost drones made by AEVEX, and the company ran the program from 2022 to 2025. The family includes the Disruptor kamikaze drone.

Total revenue still slipped from the second quarter’s $201.8 million.

The release didn’t say how much of the new forecast comes from BlackSea. The August outlook left the deal out, and AEVEX said at the time that BlackSea was expected to bring in about $150 million in revenue for all of 2026. On Wednesday’s earnings call, executives said BlackSea contributed $13 million in the roughly three weeks after the deal closed on September 8.

AEVEX lost $16.8 million in the quarter, compared with net income of $9.9 million a year earlier. The company put the $26.7 million swing mainly on a $41.7 million increase in its income tax provision and a $21.1 million rise in selling, general and administrative costs. It didn’t explain the tax increase.

Drones accounted for most of the growth. Airborne Systems revenue rose 67.1% to $147.8 million on “higher revenue from UAS products and support services,” the company said, and the segment’s adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $33.5 million.

Global Solutions, the aircraft modification and testing business, went backward. Revenue fell 10.7% to $27.5 million, and segment adjusted EBITDA dropped 66.1% to $1.5 million, which AEVEX tied to “lower gross profit from aircraft modifications” and higher overhead.

The new Maritime Systems segment reported $14.4 million in quarterly revenue. Funded backlog, meaning orders with money already appropriated, ended September at $444.3 million, including $172.3 million from Maritime Systems, executives said on the call. On October 30, AEVEX announced $41.6 million in awards for mine countermeasures systems to be fitted across BlackSea’s GARC drone boats.

AEVEX agreed in August to pay up to $650 million for BlackSea: about $250 million in cash, roughly $350 million in AEVEX stock valued at $27.50 a share, and up to $50 million in performance-based payments. BlackSea builds unmanned surface and subsea vessels at a 5,300-square-meter (57,000-square-foot) plant in Baltimore that AEVEX says can turn out about 40 unmanned surface vessels a month.

That share price compares with the $20 at which AEVEX sold stock in its April initial public offering, which raised $320 million.

The deal is showing up in costs, too. AEVEX now expects depreciation and amortization of about $30 million this year and net interest expense of about $13 million, up from roughly $21.7 million and $11.5 million in its August estimates. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $128 million to $132 million, compared with $105 million to $111.5 million before.

The U.S. government has also placed new orders for AEVEX one-way attack drones. The company says its growth and the added maritime work are “reducing our reliance on any single program or theater.”

Still, the forecast comes with a condition. AEVEX said its outlook assumes “there will not be prolonged continuing resolutions,” the stopgap budget measures Congress passes when it misses funding deadlines and that typically bar new program starts.