As the U.S. military gathers forces for combat, the timing for a new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is "set."

Source: Global Times
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Recently, the situation in the Middle East has escalated, with various developments surrounding Iran attracting attention. As the U.S. continues to "concentrate troops" around Iran and military strikes against Iran are "imminent," Oman's Foreign Minister announced on February 22 that a new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is scheduled to take place on the 26th in Geneva, Switzerland, with all parties actively working towards reaching an agreement. Is there a possibility for a breakthrough in this confrontation that has reached a critical point?

Oman’s Foreign Minister confirms new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations on the 26th

On the evening of the 22nd local time, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr posted on his social media platform that the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations will be held on the 26th in Geneva, Switzerland. Badr stated that all parties are actively working to promote the finalization of an agreement.

△ Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian (right) and Oman's Foreign Minister Badr (left)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated on the evening of the 22nd local time that Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian spoke on the phone with Oman's Foreign Minister Badr to discuss the latest developments in the indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States. During the call, both sides discussed the arrangements for the next round of negotiations.

Additionally, according to a statement from the Iraqi Foreign Ministry on the 22nd, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hussein spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian. During the call, both sides confirmed that the U.S.-Iran negotiation process is still ongoing and mentioned that the 26th of this month is the date for the next round of negotiations, which will be held in Geneva under Oman's mediation.

Earlier, both the U.S. and Iran expressed their positions regarding the new round of negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated in an interview on the 22nd that Iran is formulating the specific content and draft of the agreement, "I may meet with U.S. envoy Malley in Geneva on the 26th." "Reaching an agreement with Washington is imminent, and in some aspects, it may be better than the 2015 nuclear agreement."

A senior U.S. official revealed on the 22nd that if Iran submits a detailed nuclear agreement draft within the next 48 hours, U.S. negotiators are prepared to hold a new round of negotiations with Iran in Geneva on the 27th.

U.S. military forces encircle

Is war in the Middle East still "imminent"?

It can be seen that the U.S. has recently continued to strengthen its military deployment around Iran: another U.S. aircraft carrier is about to be deployed, and U.S. forces are frequently moving at multiple bases. Notably, a large number of U.S. military aircraft have appeared at a Jordanian airbase, which may become a key hub for U.S. operations against Iran.

Furthermore, Germany, Sweden, and Slovakia have recently urged their citizens to avoid traveling to Iran and advised their nationals in Iran to leave as soon as possible. Some analysts point out that this indicates Europe anticipates that the situation may deteriorate rapidly.

U.S. military conducts large-scale troop buildup, displaying a combat posture

So, to what extent has the U.S. military's deployment of forces around Iran reached?

Military observer Wei Dongxu pointed out that the "Ford" aircraft carrier has passed through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea, creating a pincer movement against Iran along with the previously deployed "Lincoln" aircraft carrier in the Middle East. Additionally, satellite images show that the U.S. military has deployed a large number of F-35 stealth fighters, F-15 fighters, helicopters, and drones at bases within Jordan. In response to Iran, the U.S. has conducted the largest troop buildup in the Middle East recently, displaying a posture of preparing for large-scale combat.

Wei Dongxu also noted that based on the scale of U.S. forces currently gathered in the Middle East and the movement of troops, it appears more like preparations for imminent combat. If the U.S. combat forces currently gathered in the Middle East and its surroundings all participate in combat operations, the scale and intensity will exceed last year's U.S. "Midnight Hammer" operation against Iran, which would trigger severe turmoil in the regional situation.

Iranian political analyst: U.S. negotiations with Iran are actually a "vote-seeking" for military action

In response to the U.S. continuing to exert pressure and strengthen its military deployment in the Middle East, Iranian political analyst Izadi pointed out that the U.S. negotiation strategy is actually aimed at garnering domestic support and paving the way for subsequent actions.

Izadi believes that the reason the U.S. is participating in negotiations is to seek domestic support, as U.S. congressional members hold differing opinions on the Iran issue. Therefore, U.S. President Trump can use the argument that "the U.S. participated in negotiations but did not achieve results" to seek sufficient support for launching military strikes.

Israeli Prime Minister: Unable to assess U.S. intentions towards Iran

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently expressed concerns about the U.S. policy direction regarding Iran.

Sources indicate that after Netanyahu's meeting with Trump in Washington this month, he told a senior U.S. official that he "cannot assess" U.S. intentions towards Iran and asked whether "President Trump still aligns with Israel's position."

The spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, Deflin, stated on the 20th that the Israel Defense Forces are in a state of high alert and are closely monitoring movements in all directions.

Classification
Region
North America, Europe, West Asia
Analytical Domain
Operational
Primary Category / Secondary Categories
Military Operations / Political-Military
Subcategory
Naval Engagement
SALUTE Report
Size
Large military presence
Activity
U.S. military is gathering forces and preparing for potential operations against Iran while diplomatic negotiations are ongoing
Location
Geneva · Switzerland · Jordan · Middle East
Unit
U.S. Armed Forces
Time
February 22-26, 2023
Equipment
aircraft carriersF-35 stealth fightersF-15 fightershelicoptersdrones
Summary

The U.S. military is significantly increasing its presence in the Middle East, deploying additional aircraft carriers and fighter jets in preparation for potential operations against Iran. Concurrently, a new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is set for February 26 in Geneva, with Iran's foreign minister working on a draft agreement. European nations are urging their citizens to exit Iran, reflecting concerns over escalating tensions in the region.

Key Facts
  • U.S. military is increasing its presence around Iran with additional aircraft carriers and fighter jets deployed.
  • New round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is scheduled for February 26 in Geneva, facilitated by Oman.
  • Iran's foreign minister is preparing a draft agreement for the upcoming talks.
  • European nations are advising their citizens to leave Iran, indicating a potential escalation in tensions.
  • Israeli officials express concern over U.S. intentions regarding Iran.