Breaking Weapon Export Restrictions: Seizing the Opportunity to Monitor Key Shipping Routes, Japan's Military Ties with the Philippines Have Multiple Calculations

[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang, Global Times Reporter Liu Yang] The Japanese government recently decided to provide the Philippines with coastal surveillance radar and drones, and the two governments have reached an agreement on this matter. It is noteworthy that in recent years, Japan and the Philippines have frequently strengthened defense cooperation under the banner of "responding to the Chinese threat," with Japan repeatedly using the Philippines as a springboard to bypass the country's restrictions on arms exports, thereby seeking opportunities to enhance Japan's military industrial capacity.

Japan's Defense Equipment Export Crosses a Dangerous Threshold

According to the Russian Satellite News Agency on the 10th, the total value of the equipment provided by Japan this time is approximately 4.3 billion yen, which will be transferred through Japan's "Government Security Assurance Capability Enhancement Support" (OSA) system for providing defense equipment and materials abroad. This system aims to provide materials and improve infrastructure to "like-minded countries" free of charge. Since the launch of the OSA system in the 2023 fiscal year, the Philippines has been the only country to be a recipient of Japanese equipment for four consecutive years. Reports indicate that Japan hopes the radar and drones provided this time will help enhance the Philippines' surveillance capabilities in the South China Sea, "striving to counterbalance China."

Previously, Japan had officially transferred five sets of coastal radar systems to the Philippine Navy in February 2026 under the OSA system. These radars are deployed at different monitoring stations of the Philippine Navy to expand surveillance coverage and enhance early detection and tracking capabilities of surface targets. Kyodo News revealed that the Philippine Department of National Defense did not disclose details about the deployment locations of the five radars but confirmed that at least some will be deployed in northern Luzon. The northern tip of Luzon faces Taiwan across the Luzon Strait, which is about 350 kilometers wide. This strait is also an important maritime transport route for Japan to Southeast Asia.

The latest agreement reached between Japan and the Philippines is a continuation of the previous coastal surveillance radar project. It is worth noting that the previously delivered radars were classified as "non-lethal equipment," while relevant Japanese government officials revealed that the radars provided under the new agreement are military-specific models, which have a wider monitoring range compared to the previously delivered models. This also marks Japan's first export of finished defense equipment through the OSA system, indicating that the system has crossed the threshold from "improving infrastructure and non-combat materials" to systematic military equipment exports.

Through Assistance to the Philippines, Japan Achieves Multiple "Firsts" in Arms Exports

In addition to the OSA system, Japan has many ways to provide defense assistance to the Philippines. In fact, under the guise of aiding the Philippines, Japan has always had another agenda—to break through arms export restrictions. In 2014, the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment" replaced the old "Three Principles on Arms Exports," opening up policy space for Japan to transfer defense equipment overseas. Subsequently, in May 2017, Japan passed a revised Self-Defense Forces Law, which included a new exception allowing the transfer of surplus second-hand equipment from the Self-Defense Forces to other countries free of charge or at a low price. Under this framework, Japan's first project for the free transfer of defense equipment was the provision of helicopter parts to the Philippines in 2017. This also represented a substantial shift in Japan's post-war military assistance approach.

The first finished defense equipment exported by Japan was the FPS-3/MEs active phased array long-range air surveillance radar, with the recipient also being the Philippines. The delivery ceremony for this batch of radars was held in December 2023, aimed at replacing the outdated radars of the Philippine Air Force and significantly enhancing its air situation awareness capabilities. According to the Philippine Daily Inquirer, the first FPS-3/MEs radar was delivered and deployed at Wallace Air Base in western Luzon in December 2023. This base faces the South China Sea and is about 300 kilometers from China's Scarborough Shoal, making its strategic position critical.

In addition, the Philippine Coast Guard has also repeatedly utilized the yen loan project under the "Maritime Security Capability Enhancement Program" to acquire over 10 patrol vessels. Among them, in 2013, Japan provided a loan of 18.7 billion yen to the Philippines for the construction of 10 units of 44-meter multi-purpose patrol boats. This type of vessel has a full-load displacement of about 320 tons and is designed based on Japan's Coast Guard "Shuriken" class patrol boats. They were gradually commissioned between 2016 and 2018 and have frequently appeared in disputed waters of the South China Sea in recent years, making them one of the most heavily used vessel types by the Philippine Coast Guard. In October 2016, Japan provided a second batch of loans amounting to 16.5 billion yen for the construction of two 97-meter multi-purpose patrol vessels, namely the flagship "Teresa Magbanua" of the Philippine Coast Guard and its sister ship, which are also currently the largest vessels in terms of tonnage in the Philippine Coast Guard. Japan has also approved the additional provision of five vessels of the same type, expected to be delivered between 2027 and 2028, with a loan amount of approximately 64.3 billion yen.

Japan is also advancing the transfer of more aggressive second-hand main battle platforms to the Philippines. Currently, the most notable are the "Abukuma" class frigates. The two sides have basically finalized an agreement, and the Philippines is expected to receive five decommissioned vessels of this class, which are equipped with anti-ship missiles and torpedo launchers, possibly transferred free of charge or at a low price. If finalized, this would mark Japan's first export of second-hand frigates, signifying a significant breakthrough in its defense export scope.

Seeking to Bind the Philippines Long-Term

Chinese experts interviewed by the Global Times stated that the collusion between Japan and the Philippines in the South China Sea is actually part of their respective calculations under the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy." For the Philippines, which has a significantly lagging defense capability, its goal is relatively simple—equipment such as radars, drones, and patrol vessels provided by Japan can enhance its confidence in maritime disputes and secure clearer support from the U.S. and Japan on South China Sea issues. Japan, on the other hand, has multiple calculations. Firstly, Japan is interested in the Philippines' strategic geographical position and its close relationship with the U.S. The Philippines controls the Bashi Channel, Balintang Channel, and Balabac Strait, which are key nodes in Japan's maritime transport routes. Assisting the Philippines directly serves Japan's stated goal of "enhancing the security of maritime routes." The Nikkei Asia Review previously revealed that Japan is intensifying its support for the Philippines' monitoring operations in the South China Sea and laying the groundwork for an intelligence-sharing agreement to achieve more effective monitoring of China's military activities. Combining radar data from Japan's Okinawa Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military will help both countries track Chinese military activities over a wide area.

At the same time, Japan's various defense assistance projects to the Philippines are gradually upgrading from the initial "dual-use products and components" to complete sets of finished defense equipment. Each "first" export to the Philippines effectively broadens the scope of Japan's arms exports, paving the way for the eventual lifting of restrictions on lethal weapons exports. In the future, Japan is likely to use equipment maintenance and upgrades as a reason to create a long-term defense industrial binding with the Philippines. This not only helps absorb Japan's domestic military industrial capacity but also allows Japanese military enterprises to develop a stable overseas market, constructing a closed-loop industrial chain of "assistance-procurement-maintenance."

Moreover, the defense ties established by Japan through assistance to the Philippines allow the Self-Defense Forces to become more deeply involved in regional security affairs, a trend that is even more concerning. Taking advantage of its first participation in this year's U.S.-Philippines "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" exercises, Japan has dispatched combat-ready forces overseas for the first time and launched Type 88 coastal anti-ship missiles within the Philippines, which is seen as a substantial deviation from the principle of "defensive defense."