British Media: Why Has the Saudi-led Coalition Found Itself in a Passive Position in Yemen?

According to a report by Reference News Network on September 23, the British newspaper The Sunday Times published an article on September 19 titled "How to Defeat the Houthi Forces: Observations and Insights from My Actions with the Saudi Military," authored by Michael Knights, research director at the U.S. Horizon Interactive Company. The full text is excerpted as follows:

After the Houthi forces occupied the last few enclaves controlled by the Yemeni government along the Red Sea coast this month, they can reach global shipping more easily than ever before: they control the coastal areas along the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, as well as the strategically significant Hanish Islands that span the waterway.

The actual leader of the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, appears weak, as do its long-time partners (the United States and Europe) and its new allies (Pakistan and Turkey). Similarly, this month, these military powers took no action to stop the Houthi advance, nor did they prevent Iran-backed Iraqi militias from using drones to attack and damage Saudi oil pipelines. What can we do to reverse this sad setback?

The Houthi forces occupied Yemen's capital, Sana'a, in 2014, forcing government troops to retreat south. From 2015 to 2019, I witnessed efforts to repel the Houthi tide—during which the Yemeni government called for international assistance and received a response from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Houthis were first expelled from the southern port city of Aden, then from the important energy hub of Marib, and finally from most of the Red Sea coastal areas.

Since then, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have become estranged due to differences over the ultimate outcome of the fight against the Houthis.

This month, when the Houthis launched their attacks, their drone tactics were enough to make the Ukrainian military blush; the combined deepfake withdrawal orders they issued would make any Russian intelligence chief proud.

By September 12, the Yemeni front had retreated to a chokepoint south of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, indicating that the Houthis had regained control of territory lost to government forces since 2015. The Saudis, now awakened, began bombing any Houthi personnel entering a so-called "kill zone" north of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, but the Houthis are rapidly constructing fortifications.

Since 2024, the Houthis have effectively cut off shipping lanes in the southern Red Sea using Iranian-supplied anti-ship missiles, drones, and naval mines, making most shipping companies hesitant to operate. Cargo ships now have to detour around Africa, taking a long route that brings global shipping almost back to the days before the Suez Canal opened in 1869.

The Houthis' capture of the last coastline and its strategic islands is a new blow to Saudi Arabia and Western countries—they are struggling to demonstrate their ability to protect global maritime routes.

The failure to hold onto the hard-won territory in the Red Sea region fully exposes the weakness of this dysfunctional alliance. Unless actions are taken to change this perception and make adversaries pay a tangible price, Iran and its partners may again escalate attacks on Saudi oil pipelines, Saudi oil loading facilities in Yanbu and the Gulf region, and the energy hub of Marib in Yemen.

If reports are true that the U.S. has rejected Saudi requests for assistance in Yemen, then while Yemenis and Iraqi militias become the frontline forces against Saudi oil exports, the U.S. will not lead efforts to contain them.

Countries outside the U.S. can provide assistance, which in turn may encourage the U.S. to take more action. From 2015 to 2018, the UAE, as a key force in the multinational coalition, made military progress on multiple fronts in southern Yemen. In this crisis, the specialized military capabilities of middle powers may be very important. Riyadh is certainly watching who can step into the U.S. role at this moment.

Equally important is whether it is possible to urgently promote reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE among all relevant parties. This move alone could restore the most critical set of relationships in the Yemeni conflict—this loose partnership has repeatedly brought positive results on the battlefield against the Houthi forces. (Translated by Wang Qun)