Summary and Key Points: Brandon J. Weichert, Senior National Security Editor and author of Winning Space, evaluates the erosion of U.S. Navy dominance in the face of China’s Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategy.
-Utilizing a dense inventory of Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs) and land-based hypersonics, the PLARF has created a protective “bubble” for China’s growing aircraft carrier fleet.
-This 19FortyFive report analyzes how saturation threats and advanced sensor fusion negate the 1990s-era freedom of movement for nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, arguing that in the modern Indo-Pacific, geography and long-range standoff will decide the outcome of maritime engagements.
The Death of Impunity: Why China’s A2/AD Bubble is Forcing U.S. Aircraft Carriers Over the Horizon
The United States is an overstretched expeditionary power that relies primarily on its Navy to lead the way in conventional power projection. Specifically, the U.S. Navy deploys massive, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers for the task.
From Unchallenged Sea Power to Contested Waters
For decades, the Americans have been the unquestioned dominant player in the aircraft carrier department. That gave Washington clear military advantages, especially after the Soviet Union collapsed.
Today, however, the situation is much different from what it was in the 1990s.
U.S. carriers can no longer count on freedom of movement to nestle close to the shorelines of their adversaries and launch airstrikes with near impunity. The United States’ rivals have effectively created countermeasures to prevent the carriers from coming near their forces.
In the case of China, they’ve gone a step farther and created comprehensive defenses against U.S. carriers, as well as their own growing fleet of increasingly advanced carriers.
China’s Real Advantage
Sure, Chinese carriers don’t outclass American nuclear-powered carriers. But their advantage is the fact that, at least for now, any conflict they engage in would be waged close to their territory.
ATLANTIC OCEAN (Oct. 29, 2019) USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) conducts high-speed turns in the Atlantic Ocean. Ford is at sea conducting sea trials following the in port portion of its 15 month post-shakedown availability. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Connor Loessin)
Chief Aviation Boatswain’s Mate (Handling) Stephane Togue, assigned to Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD 8), prepares to signal an F-35B Lightning II, attached to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 211, for takeoff, Dec. 4, 2025. Makin Island is currently underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 3rd Fleet. (Photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Abraham Ramirez)
ATLANTIC OCEAN (Oct. 29, 2019) USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) conducts high-speed turns in the Atlantic Ocean. Ford is at sea conducting sea trials following the in port portion of its 15 month post-shakedown availability. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Connor Loessin)
Beijing has spent more than a decade building up a comprehensive web of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.
Together, China intends on using their A2/AD capabilities, specifically their advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) as a shield behind which their carriers can operate—all while keeping U.S. carriers over the horizon.
The PLARF Missile Umbrella
The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has a dense inventory of land-based ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles that can target U.S. carriers before these enter striking range. These PLARF systems plan to overwhelm U.S. carrier strike groups’ considerable defenses by using swarming tactics.
Of course, U.S. carriers still win in air wing capacity, combat experience, and operational flexibility. But the early stages of any conflict with China in their part of the world would force carriers to punch their way through China’s dense, protective A2/AD bubble.
Fighting Into the Teeth of A2/AD
Then add in the airpower that China’s carriers, operating from the protective bubble that PLARF’s A2/AD systems provide, could severely threaten a U.S. carrier sailing toward contested waters in the Indo-Pacific during any conflict with China.
So, it doesn’t really matter if China’s carrier force isn’t as advanced or experienced as America’s. China is doing a great job of providing active defenses for their carriers in ways the Americans cannot when they are forward deployed in distant, contested regions.
(Oct. 17, 2017) The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) transits the Arabian Gulf, Oct 17, 2017. Nimitz is deployed in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations in support of Operation Inherent Resolve. While in this region, the ship and strike group are conducting maritime security operations to reassure allies and partners, preserve freedom of navigation, and maintain the free flow of commerce. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman David Claypool/Released)
The HMS Prince of Wales (R09) aircraft carrier flight deck officer “shoots” an F-35B Lightning II short takeoff vertical landing (STOVL) variant fighter jet for a STO launch from a ski jump aboard the U.K.’s newest carrier Oct. 24, 2023. The 5th generation strike aircraft for Navy, Air Force, Marines, and allies is aboard to conduct developmental test phase 3 (DT-3) flight trials, which continue today. During the ship’s deployment to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard for WESTLANT 2023, a Pax River F-35 Integrated Test Force (Pax ITF) team is working closely with the ship’s company to conduct the sea trials that continue pushing the boundaries of carrier aviation. (Photo by Michael D. Jackson)
Therefore, these A2/AD bubbles do more than simply provide for fodder in defense publications in the West, such as this one. The A2/AD capability is a true deterrent that keeps the United States’ most important power projection platform, the aircraft carrier, away from contested areas.
Missiles, Sensors, and the New Maritime Equation
As for the ASBMs, these are truly decisive weapons. Merging advanced, layered tracking capabilities that can range approaching U.S. aircraft carriers, these long-range missiles are a significant challenge for U.S. expeditionary forces that come within range.
While not focused on U.S. carriers alone, China’s ASBMs support the broader notion that keeping the Americans at standoff ranges and expanding China’s own missile reach are critical components of their regional defense strategy.
In any engagement, in the new age of maritime combat, aircraft carriers alone will not decide the outcome. It will be decided by a panoply of long-range missiles, sensors, and A2/AD systems, along with warships, carriers, and submarines that operate within the protective bubble of those missiles, sensors, and other A2/AD systems.
The Americans enjoy several advantages on paper in military dominance, notably with their aircraft carrier fleet. In terms of sheer numbers of carriers, experience, logistics, and global sustainment. But these facts rarely account for saturation threats in a Pacific conflict.
Geography is Destiny
The geography of the Pacific is vast. The primary geographical feature is the Pacific Ocean, and the United States would have to deploy its Navy far from its own shores, close to hardened Chinese shores, in any potential conflict.
All these elements combine to give China real advantages when it comes to defending against U.S. military intervention. This is not the 1990s. America cannot simply stop a rising power, like China, from asserting its will in its own region simply by sailing an aircraft carrier or two through the Taiwan Strait, as they did during the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996.
Those days are over.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor at 19FortyFive.com. He was previously the senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert is the host of The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.