Clustered Military Exercises and Island Defense: What Signals Does Japan's Acceleration of "Re-Militarization" Release? Expert Analysis

Recently, Japan has almost simultaneously participated in three joint military exercises: "Brave Shield," "Resolute Dragon," and "Rim of the Pacific." The exercises cover everything from nearshore to the open sea. What role is Japan playing in these exercises? Additionally, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force has deployed anti-ship missiles for the first time on islands far from its homeland. Is this an enhancement of defense or a line drawn for firepower? How should the international community respond?

The "Rim of the Pacific-2026" maritime joint exercise is being held in the Hawaiian Islands and surrounding waters of the United States, starting from June 24 and lasting until July 31. This exercise is touted as the largest in history, with 31 countries participating, approximately 40 surface vessels, 5 submarines, and 140 aircraft, totaling over 25,000 personnel.

The exercise includes amphibious operations, naval gun and missile firing, anti-submarine warfare, and air defense drills. Unlike previous exercises, Japan is serving as the deputy commander of the joint task force in this exercise.

In addition to the Rim of the Pacific, Japan has also participated in the "Resolute Dragon" and "Brave Shield" exercises. From June 20 to 30, the "Resolute Dragon 26" exercise took place at multiple locations in Japan's Kyushu and the southwestern islands, including Okinawa, Miyako, and Ishigaki.

Japan deploys "Osprey" for the first time on Miyako Island

Notably, some civilian airports were also included in the exercise. Approximately 9,600 personnel from the Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military participated, focusing on amphibious operations and joint island capture. During the exercise, the Japan Self-Defense Forces also deployed the tilt-rotor transport aircraft "Osprey" on Miyako Island for the first time. The Japanese side stated that it would rely on this aircraft to ensure rapid transport and deployment capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, supporting joint readiness and island defense tasks with the U.S.

Japan Self-Defense Forces dispatch over 4,000 personnel

Before the "Resolute Dragon 26" concluded, another larger-scale exercise took over. From June 22 to July 1, the Japan-U.S. "Brave Shield 2026" exercise was held simultaneously, with over 4,000 personnel and a large amount of weaponry from the Japan Self-Defense Forces participating. The exercise area covered a vast region of the Indian Ocean and Pacific, including Guam and Hawaii. The focus was on deep-sea anti-submarine warfare, maritime blockade, and joint sea control, while also advancing the operational deployment of the U.S. "Thad" missile system in Japan. According to reports from U.S. military websites, live-fire sinking drills were also conducted during the exercise. The U.S. Air Force's B-2A stealth bombers dropped AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missiles, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's conventional submarine "Shin Whale" launched heavy torpedoes, hitting the retired U.S. amphibious dock landing ship "Juno," which has a displacement of over 10,000 tons, sinking it approximately 200 nautical miles from Guam.

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: Among America's allies, the Japan Self-Defense Forces are the strongest, especially in their maritime combat capabilities, which have improved significantly in recent years. In certain situations, if U.S. military forces cannot arrive or are relatively few in the relevant area, Japan, with its relatively larger forces, could even play a leading role. The "Osprey" tilt-rotor aircraft will play a very important role in Japan's newly constructed island capture combat force system. The location of Miyako Island is crucial as it controls the Miyako Strait. Deploying offensive combat forces or continuously delivering combat troops and military supplies there can enhance the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's pre-positioning capabilities for important straits. Therefore, the "Osprey" tilt-rotor aircraft is not only a platform for troop deployment but also a transit platform for combat support.

Japan accelerates its military preparedness, actions becoming increasingly dangerous

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: During the joint exercises between the U.S. and Japan, especially in the process of conducting joint fire strikes against maritime targets, the U.S. Navy is attempting to push Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force's conventional submarine forces to the front line, acting as a suicide squad or cannon fodder. This is because attacking large warships with torpedoes requires being at relatively close positions. In actual combat, whether Japan's submarines can reach this position and return is still a question that needs to be observed.

Japan currently lacks experience in conducting large-scale overseas operations. In the past, Japan mainly prepared at the hardware level, developing advanced weaponry and introducing offensive combat systems. However, now it must also begin comprehensive preparations at the software level, command structure level, and decision-making level. This indicates that Japan's pace of military preparedness is accelerating. It has already begun concrete preparations for conflict and war, and such actions are increasingly dangerous, which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan deploys anti-ship missile-related equipment on Minami-Torishima for the first time

The heat of the exercises has not yet dissipated, and Japan has announced that it has moved anti-ship missiles to islands in the western Pacific. What exactly is it targeting? What are the underlying objectives?

On June 28, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force announced via social media that it has deployed the "Type 12 anti-ship missile" launch system and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft for target location determination to Minami-Torishima, with plans to begin shooting training in 2027. This is also the first time the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force has deployed anti-ship missile-related equipment on Minami-Torishima, the easternmost island.

Minami-Torishima covers an area of about 1.2 square kilometers and is located approximately 1,800 kilometers northwest of Tokyo. The Type 12 anti-ship missile officially entered service in 2015, with the original model measuring about 5 meters in length and a maximum range of about 200 kilometers, primarily used for nearshore defense. To achieve a range breakthrough, Japan has conducted comprehensive technical upgrades on this missile, increasing its range to about 1,000 kilometers and optimizing its guidance system and stealth performance, giving it a "multi-use" combat capability.

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: Minami-Torishima is the farthest small island in eastern Japan, and it can be said to have no defenses to protect. Given the very small area of this island, Japan's deployment of the Type 12 anti-ship missile launch system there is definitely not out of defensive needs, as Minami-Torishima does not face any external threats. In this case, it is clear that there are other objectives. First, it aims to use Minami-Torishima as a missile testing base, as live-fire shooting is relatively convenient there, with vast surrounding waters for setting up targets or target ships. Currently, the Type 12 anti-ship missile is deployed. In the future, it is not ruled out that the Type 25 anti-ship missile will also be deployed on Minami-Torishima, aiming to maximize its range to strike maritime targets over 900 kilometers or close to 1,000 kilometers. Therefore, Minami-Torishima may become a very important live-fire testing site for the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.

Japan accelerates "re-militarization" not out of defensive needs but with clear offensive attributes

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: The waters surrounding Minami-Torishima are part of the western Pacific and may also involve some maritime shipping routes. Therefore, if the Type 12 anti-ship missile is deployed on Minami-Torishima, and subsequently the Type 25 anti-ship missile is deployed, it can exert firepower deterrence against maritime moving targets within a range of 1,000 kilometers. In this way, the firepower strike circle centered on Minami-Torishima will connect with the firepower strike circle that Japan previously established on the southwestern islands.

Thus, it cannot be ruled out that Japan intends to turn Minami-Torishima into a firepower position or a firepower fortress in the western Pacific region, aiming to restrict or deter naval activities of other countries, including China. This is fundamentally not out of defensive needs but has clear offensive attributes.

Additionally, Japan is advancing the development of new equipment in the field of underwater combat. On June 27, according to Kyodo News, the Japanese government has begun comprehensive development and introduction of unmanned submarines capable of anti-ship attacks. As part of the so-called strengthening of the defense system on the Pacific side, these unmanned submarines can carry torpedoes and mines, with long-range and long-endurance capabilities. The Japanese government plans to coordinate their use with manned frigates, submarines, and unmanned surface vessels equipped with missile launch systems in the future.

Furthermore, the Japanese government is also studying the establishment of an air defense identification zone over the Ogasawara Islands and plans to deploy surveillance and control radar on Kitadaito Island and the Ogasawara Islands on the Pacific side. There are also proposals to strengthen facilities such as airport runways on Iwo Jima. This series of military expansion actions by the Japanese government contradicts the spirit of Japan's pacifist constitution, exacerbating regional tensions and provoking significant criticism from public opinion within Japan.

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: The Japan Self-Defense Forces are strengthening their long-range strike capabilities in the western Pacific, employing both overt and covert means. The overt means include various missiles, such as the Type 25 anti-ship missile with a range close to 1,000 kilometers. The covert means involve the aforementioned unmanned submarines, which are essentially large unmanned underwater vehicles. Japan currently lacks the capability to develop and manufacture them, so it will first purchase and then replicate them. This aims to enhance the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's secret long-range strike capabilities, not only for preemptive strikes but also for direct underwater deterrence against other countries' nearshore areas and islands. Additionally, launching torpedoes or laying mines underwater could negatively impact international shipping routes.

The Japanese government, enterprises, and Self-Defense Forces form a community of interests

On June 29, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it would place 20 Japanese entities, including the National Defense Research Institute, on a control list, nine of which belong to the Mitsubishi Group.

During World War II, Mitsubishi was the core munitions factory of Japanese militarism. What position does Mitsubishi hold in Japan's military-industrial system today? What role does the Japanese military-industrial complex play in Japan's military expansion process?

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: Mitsubishi can be said to be Japan's largest military-industrial complex enterprise. In recent years, it has acquired more defense-related businesses through mergers and acquisitions. Many of the main battle equipment of Japan's Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces are provided by Mitsubishi. Mitsubishi is also an important participant in the joint development of the next-generation fighter jet by Japan, the UK, and Italy. Mitsubishi promotes the strengthening of Japan's offensive capabilities through the development of civilian technology, so the boundary between military and civilian within Mitsubishi's military-industrial complex is not particularly clear.

Military-industrial complex "full throttle" to assist Japan in expanding military power

Military Observer Wei Dongxu: In addition to Mitsubishi, there are also Mitsui and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries. These military-industrial complexes can effectively support Japan's large-scale military operations. If their production capacity or defense technology innovation capability is becoming stronger, it indicates that Japan's ambition to use military force is also in a state of high expansion. If the acquisition of related products and technologies is restricted to some extent, the Japan Self-Defense Forces' desire to expand its forces may also be constrained. From this, we can interpret what ambitions Japan has at the military level and what intentions it has regarding the use of military force.

First of all, the current government of Japan, led by Sanae Takaichi, is making decisions to push Japan towards war, as she has openly stated the intention to intervene militarily in sensitive and important matters concerning neighboring countries. This is a very dangerous signal. However, we see that Japan is not just talking; it has already made comprehensive military preparations, including acquiring offensive weaponry, integrating forces, and constructing command systems. Moreover, its military-industrial complex is currently operating at full capacity to produce weaponry. Therefore, whether from top-level design, the reserve of combat materials and equipment, or the application of new tactics and exercises, we can see that Japan has become increasingly dangerous, and the Japan Self-Defense Forces' intentions to use military force and provoke conflicts are continuously being displayed.