Europe Intensifies Formulation of "European NATO" Plan

Reference News Network, April 17 report The Wall Street Journal website published an article on April 14 titled "Europe is Accelerating the Development of NATO Contingency Plans in Case Trump Withdraws the U.S. from NATO," authored by Boyan Panchevski and Daniel Michaels. The full text is excerpted as follows:

A contingency plan is gaining increasing recognition, aimed at ensuring that Europe can achieve self-defense based on NATO's existing military framework in the event of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO. Even Germany, which has consistently opposed European independence in defense matters, now supports this initiative.

This plan is referred to by some officials as "European NATO." Officials involved in drafting the plan are seeking the participation of more European countries so that they can play a role within the command structure of the new alliance, using their own military resources to fill the defense gaps that may arise from a U.S. troop withdrawal.

Participants have stated that the relevant plans are being advanced informally, and the new European military alliance does not intend to compete with existing alliances. European officials aim to ensure that even if the U.S. withdraws troops from Europe or refuses to defend Europe as Trump has threatened, Europe can maintain deterrence against Russia, continuity of military operations, and credibility of nuclear deterrence.

The relevant plans were first conceived last year, highlighting the depth of European skepticism regarding U.S. reliability. The acceleration of these plans followed Trump's threat to seize Greenland from NATO member Denmark. Now, amid a stalemate formed by Europe's refusal to support the U.S. war against Iran, these plans have become even more urgent.

Crucially, Berlin has politically shifted direction, which has given momentum to the relevant plans. For decades, Germany has resisted calls led by France to strengthen European defense sovereignty, preferring to allow the U.S. to continue as the ultimate guarantor of European security. According to informed sources, under Chancellor Merz's leadership, the situation is changing due to concerns about the reliability of the U.S. as an ally during and after Trump's presidency.

The challenges are exceptionally daunting. From logistics and intelligence to NATO's highest military command, the entire structure of NATO has been built almost entirely on the leadership of the U.S.

European countries are now trying to take on more responsibility, a demand that Trump made long ago. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently stated that NATO will become "more European-led."

The difference now is that, due to Trump's growing hostility, European countries are taking proactive measures rather than acting only in response to U.S. provocations. Recently, Trump referred to European allies as "cowards" and called NATO a "paper tiger."

Earlier this month, Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO due to allies' refusal to support his military actions against Iran, stating that this move was "no longer reconsiderable." Any decision to withdraw from NATO must be approved by the U.S. Congress, but the U.S. president can still use his powers as Commander-in-Chief to withdraw troops or military assets from Europe or cease support.

According to relevant officials, Germany's shift in attitude on this issue has led to broader agreements among other countries, including the UK, France, Poland, Nordic countries, and Canada, which are now shaping the contingency plan into a "voluntary alliance" within NATO.

Only after Berlin's change in attitude did the contingency plan begin to address practical military issues, such as who would take over NATO's air defense and missile defense systems, the reinforcement routes to Poland and the Baltic states, and the logistics network in the event of a U.S. withdrawal, as well as how to organize large-scale regional military exercises. European officials have stated that these remain the biggest challenges.

In areas where Europe lags behind the U.S., relevant officials hope to accelerate the production of critical equipment, including anti-submarine warfare, space and reconnaissance capabilities, air refueling, and aerial maneuvering. Officials noted that Germany and the UK announced last month a joint project to develop stealth cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons, calling it an example of the new initiative.

Although Europe's efforts mark a fundamental shift in thinking, achieving this ambition will be difficult. The Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO has always been an American, and U.S. officials have stated that they have no intention of relinquishing this position.

No European country has a high enough status within NATO to replace the U.S. as a military leader, partly because only the U.S. can provide a nuclear umbrella that covers the entire European continent, which is the foundation supporting NATO's founding principle of "mutual deterrence through strength." (Translated by Hu Xue)