Expert Article: How Europe Can Quickly Build Deep Strike Capability?

Reference News Network, May 18 report The German "Hard Point" news website published an article on May 10 titled "Three Ways to Rapidly Build European Deep Strike Capabilities," authored by Fabian Hoffman, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense University. The full text is excerpted as follows:

The news that the United States will not deploy long-range fire battalions in Germany has caused panic in the capitals of European countries—revealing once again the serious lack of capability among European armies to conduct precise strikes against deep enemy targets.

Europe's inventory of deep strike weapons is insufficient, and replenishment efforts are progressing slowly. According to credible timelines, the inventory will not meet standards until the 2030s. However, European countries can enhance their deep strike capabilities more quickly through three methods:

1. Purchase systems from Ukraine

Over the past four years, Ukraine has built a large and diverse inventory of deep strike weapons, including long-range drones, small cruise missiles, and heavy cruise missiles. Additionally, ballistic missiles are also under development.

If European countries prioritize range and wish to quickly acquire deep strike capabilities comparable to the "Tomahawk" cruise missile (with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers), then Ukrainian long-range drone manufacturers may be the only realistic option in the short term.

Candidates include the FP-1 drone from "Fire Point" and the Antonov An-196 "Fierce" drone, with some models having a maximum range exceeding 1,500 kilometers and a payload of up to 120 kilograms. This payload is significantly lower than that of the "Tomahawk" cruise missile or similar systems (454 kilograms). This means that European countries will have to make compromises in terms of lethality.

Several small cruise missiles from Ukraine are also worth noting. Although they are more expensive than long-range drones, they are faster and less likely to be intercepted by enemy air defense fire, but their range is only 500 to 800 kilometers.

2. Purchase mature non-Ukrainian systems

If European countries are unwilling to procure from Ukraine, there are other options, such as purchasing systems from the United States. Several European countries have already procured "Tomahawk" cruise missiles and AGM-158B Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM-ER). However, even though the U.S. has significant production capacity, delivery times have been greatly extended. For example, Finland, the Netherlands, and Poland will not receive all of the JASSM-ERs ordered in 2024 until 2032. The Iran conflict may further delay delivery times.

South Korea and Israel are also options, but production bottlenecks in both countries limit delivery speeds.

European defense industry is also an alternative. Although the heavy cruise missiles traditionally procured by European countries have long delivery cycles, European manufacturers have the potential to deliver a large number of small cruise missiles and long-range drones at a faster pace.

Although these weapon systems cannot provide Europe with deep strike capabilities comparable to the long-range fire battalions deployed by the U.S. in Europe, as long as European countries are willing to relax their requirements for range and payload, willing to equip a larger number of systems with lower lethality, and accept the risks associated with new supply chains, Europe can indeed quickly procure enough deep strike weapons.

3. Procure through emergency R&D programs

For European countries, another realistic short-term solution is to transform already initiated long-term R&D projects into emergency R&D programs.

Europe's ground-based cruise missile program—the land-based version of the European missile group's naval cruise missile—may be the most realistic candidate.

Within the framework of such emergency R&D programs, countries participating in the European deep strike initiative may quickly reach consensus on core design parameters, determine procurement quantities, and provide necessary funding to accelerate R&D progress. The success of the emergency R&D program is likely to depend on whether the procuring countries are willing to set aside differences regarding R&D and production locations and provide funding to the country that can deliver results the fastest—regarding the ground-based cruise missile program, that country is France. However, even so, the likelihood of delivering ground-based cruise missiles to European armies before 2028 remains low.

The deep strike weapon jointly developed by the UK and Germany, or the 3SM "Tirfing" supersonic missile jointly developed by Germany and Norway, could also be transformed into emergency R&D programs. (Translated by Wang Qiang)