F-35 for Saudi Arabia: The American Promise That May Not Turn Into a Deal

In November 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman left the White House with an American promise to acquire F-35 stealth fighters, which had been considered a red line in American policy towards the region until recently. The promise came as part of a massive package of defense and economic agreements between Riyadh and Washington during President Donald Trump's administration, but the real question is not whether Saudi Arabia will get the F-35, but whether it actually needs them.

Context: Breaking an Israeli Monopoly That Lasted for Decades

Since the F-35 entered service, Israel has remained the only country in the Middle East to possess this fighter. Washington has committed for decades to what is known as Israel's "Qualitative Military Edge," a legal American commitment that prevents the sale of advanced military technologies to Arab countries if they threaten Israel's military superiority. Trump's approval of the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia means breaking this monopoly, which has sparked strong opposition from the Israel Defense Forces.

However, in practical terms, the promise of sale does not equate to an actual sale. So far, the U.S. State Department has not issued a formal notification to Congress regarding the F-35 deal for Saudi Arabia, unlike what happened with the $3 billion F-15 maintenance deal and the $9 billion PAC-3 missile deal, which were officially approved in January and February 2026.

The High Price: Can Riyadh Afford It?

The F-35 is not just an expensive aircraft; it is a complex system that requires massive investments in infrastructure, training, and maintenance. The cost of a single fighter exceeds $100 million, and if Saudi Arabia wants to purchase 48 fighters as hinted, the total cost could reach $15-20 billion.

But the real cost does not stop at the purchase. The F-35 relies on complex American supply chains, requires American contractors for maintenance, and ongoing software updates from the manufacturer Lockheed Martin. In other words, owning the F-35 means deepening reliance on Washington, rather than enhancing strategic independence.

This contradicts Saudi Arabia's stated goals of developing a local defense industry. The "50% Localization" program adopted by the Saudi General Authority for Military Industries aims to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, but the F-35 goes in the completely opposite direction.

The Promise as a Weapon: Political Value Exceeds Military Value

In my view, the American promise to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia may be more valuable than the deal itself. The announcement of the preliminary approval sent a clear message to Iran: Saudi Arabia can acquire the latest American military technologies. This message achieves a significant part of the deterrent goal without Riyadh spending a single dollar.

Mohammed bin Salman knows well that acquiring the F-35 comes at a steep political price: full normalization with Israel. Yet he received the promise without offering this price. In fact, Saudi-Israeli relations have been deteriorating in recent months, while Riyadh is moving closer to Cairo and Ankara in a new regional axis viewed in Tel Aviv as hostile to its interests.

According to reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Saudi Crown Prince received from Trump most of what he would have sought as part of a broader normalization deal, without actually offering normalization itself. The grand prize he has yet to obtain is a mutual defense treaty with the United States, which would require the approval of the U.S. Senate—thus making normalization with Israel a prerequisite.

Israel and Qualitative Superiority: A Battle That Is Not Over

Even if Saudi Arabia decides to proceed with the purchase of F-35s, Israel will not stand idly by. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in January 2026 investments exceeding $100 billion in the independent Israeli defense industry, which is partly seen as a response to the potential acquisition of F-35s by Arab countries.

American law obliges Washington to maintain Israel's qualitative superiority, which means that any F-35 sold to Saudi Arabia will likely be a "diluted" version with fewer capabilities than the Israeli version. Tel Aviv is likely to try to obstruct the deal or at least delay it for as long as possible.

Turkish Alternatives: KAAN as a Strategic Option

In a notable development, recent reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is considering investing in the Turkish fifth-generation fighter KAAN. This option offers strategic advantages: lower cost, greater independence from Washington, and strengthened relations with Ankara, which has become an important regional partner for Riyadh.

Militarily, the KAAN may not be at the same technical level as the F-35, but it resolves the strategic dilemma: obtaining advanced air capabilities without falling into the trap of complete dependence on Washington.

Conclusion: The Promise Is Stronger Than the Deal

Saudi Arabia has obtained what it truly wants from the F-35: a deterrent message directed at Iran, a bargaining chip in regional negotiations, and proof of the "exceptional" relationship with Washington. All of this without spending tens of billions of dollars and without making major political concessions.

From my experience dealing with arms deals in the region, the announcement of an intention to purchase often has political value that exceeds the purchase itself. The real question is not when the F-35 will arrive at the Royal Saudi Air Force bases, but whether it will arrive at all.

The irony is that Saudi Arabia may achieve its strategic goals from the F-35 without owning a single fighter. This is a lesson in Gulf defense policy: sometimes, the promise of weapons is stronger than the weapons themselves.