FCAS may survive, but next-gen fighter negotiations all but dead: Industry source

MUNICH — Industrial codevelopment of the French-German-Spanish Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) is almost certainly headed for collapse, with negotiations between Airbus and Dassault halted on the next phase of the project amid a long-running industrial dispute over leadership and workshare, an industry source said today.

The future fighter jet is the driving force behind Europe’s multibillion-dollar Future Combat Air System that also includes development of new weapons, drone swarms, sensors and a “combat cloud” communications network.

And though “no funeral” of FCAS is expected this week, clarity around launching the effort’s Phase 2 is needed, according to the industry source, who spoke on background on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to bluntly discuss the state of negotiations.

“Why negotiate” on Phase 2 when opposing views on cooperation exist between Airbus and Dassault? asked the source. The new phase was planned to involve production and flight of a NGF demonstrator later this year, but once phase 1B finishes in April, NGF will be condemned to its end.

At a political level, outstanding issues are proving “more difficult than meets the eye,” said the industry source, pointing to delayed meetings between Berlin and Paris aimed at resolving issues and offering a new way forward.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Wednesday that the future of the program will be made clear soon, according to Reuters. Earlier this week French President Emmanuel Macron replied “Non” when media pressed him on whether FCAS is dead.

While the jet agreement may be on the verge of collapse, the source did state that a restructuring of FCAS to focus on shareable technologies is still feasible — but two distinct fighter jets, one potentially developed by Germany and Spain, the other by France, forms the likeliest basis of new long-term industry planning.

This approach would “make FCAS more resilient because the requirements of the [three] armed forces are different,” said the industry source, despite a clear understanding that since FCAS was launched in 2017, France has been eyeing a carrier capable future fighter while Germany was looking for more of an air superiority type.

Not everyone is sold on the prospect of Europe potentially investing in three future fighter jets, as Italy, the UK and Japan are also developing a platform under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).

“It’s crazy. [We] have to stop this idea,” Theo Francken, Belgium’s Defense Minister told Breaking Defense today. “I think that’s too expensive to make three [different aircraft]. “It’s better to have one huge program” that includes a cloud network and Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA),” he added.

Brussels holds FCAS observer status, but “we don’t have a lot of information,” about the latest political and industrial developments relating to the troubled project,” stressed Francken. “It is between the key players. … I’m not certain it will end up well. It will be problematic, I assume.”

FCAS isn’t the only program facing uncertainty. As the NGF heads for collapse, the fate of France’s participation in Europe’s Eurodrone program also looks increasingly uncertain, with the industry source stating that interest from Paris appears to be fading.

Initially launched in 2016 and valued at an estimated cost of $7.3 billion, the Eurodrone Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) remotely piloted drone also involves Germany, Italy and Spain. The aircraft, which has been troubled by delays and inflated costs. The aircraft is under development for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance purposes and to reduce Europe’s reliance on non-European solutions like the US MQ-9B.