Flash Review | Japan Strengthens "Space Transport," Concealing "Ground Attack" Ambitions

On October 9, Japanese media such as Kyodo News reported that the Japanese Ministry of Defense will launch an investigation and research plan to strengthen the country's "satellite transportation capabilities" to ensure the stable operation of artificial satellite intelligence collection activities.

According to reports, Japan is concerned that in the event of an emergency, on-orbit artificial satellites may lose functionality, thus requiring the establishment of an emergency mechanism to quickly restore intelligence collection capabilities relying on backup satellites. To this end, the Ministry of Defense has decided to conduct research to enhance space transportation capabilities.

The Japanese Ministry of Defense will soon publicly solicit proposals from private enterprises, focusing on topics such as the rapid manufacturing of satellite launch vehicles, supporting launch methods, and project costs, aiming to finalize cooperating enterprises by around February next year.

Screenshot of related report from Kyodo News website

In recent years, Japan has been accelerating the use of artificial satellites to build a military reconnaissance system.

In May of this year, Japanese Defense Administrative Official Yohei Wakabayashi stated that Japan's low-orbit military reconnaissance network "satellite constellation" began operations in April. The "satellite constellation" is regarded as Japan's version of "Starlink."

Additionally, according to a report by the Nikkei on September, Japan is also developing more advanced tactical AI satellites, planning to develop experimental models between 2027 and 2029, with the earliest space on-orbit tests expected in the 2030 fiscal year.

Lv Yaodong, a researcher at the Japan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that Japan's acceleration in building a space satellite reconnaissance system and strengthening space transportation capabilities is primarily intended to serve the construction of military expansion and long-range strike capabilities.

Its deeper motivation is to establish a long-range strike chain, enhancing Japan's so-called "capability to attack enemy bases."

Currently, Japan's Type 25 land-based anti-ship missile has a range approaching 1,000 kilometers, and future improved cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles will further extend their strike range, necessitating more satellites to complete target reconnaissance and locking in broader areas, ultimately providing practical support for Japan's so-called "counterattack capability."

Japan is currently building a multi-orbit, all-weather, operational military satellite system and developing space transportation capabilities, all aimed at serving Japan's strategic ambition to gain dominance in space operations.

Screenshot of related report from NHK

Lv Yaodong analyzed that Japan's actions will inevitably have significant negative impacts on regional security.

Firstly, the enhancement of Japan's space reconnaissance system directly targets neighboring countries, disrupting the security environment in East Asia and forcing neighboring countries to take countermeasures.

Secondly, Japan is treating space as a confrontational operational domain, accelerating the weaponization of space, which goes against the international consensus on the demilitarization of space and exacerbates military competition in the space domain. In particular, Japan's militarization of space represents a "preemptive" cognitive posture, which will inevitably increase the risk of regional conflict predictions and pose a significant impact on the strategic stability of the Asia-Pacific region.