Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO: The Impact of a War with Iran Will Far Exceed That of the Iraq War

Report Content

According to a report by Reference News on March 29, the U.S. newspaper The Hill reported on March 24 that former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder stated on the 23rd that a war with Iran would have "far greater consequences" than the Iraq War, shaking economic security, alliance relations, and the world order.

In a commentary written for Politico Europe, Daalder wrote: "In less than a month, the world has witnessed the largest disruption of oil and gas supplies in history. As the conflict escalates and oil and gas production infrastructure is damaged, even if the conflict ends quickly, the global economic repercussions will be felt by every country in the coming months and even years."

He also stated: "The damage this war has already inflicted on the global economy far exceeds the total economic consequences of the Iraq War. But that’s not all. From a geopolitical perspective, the war between the U.S. and Israel with Iran will also have far greater implications than the Iraq War."

Daalder compared the "miscalculation" of initiating a war with Iran to the mistakes made by former President George W. Bush in launching the Iraq War.

However, he pointed out that Bush had garnered more support from allies at the time, "In contrast, Trump didn’t even attempt to seek the support of America’s most important allies."

He wrote: "Not only that, he didn’t even inform allies of his decision in advance. However, when Iran predictably closed the Strait of Hormuz, this U.S. president asked allies to send navies to escort tankers."

He also wrote: "The Iraq War indeed left deep scars on many U.S. allies, even on countries like the UK that participated in the war, but Iran has made America’s allies believe that they can no longer rely on the U.S.—Washington now poses a real threat to their economic security."

The war with Iran has led to a rise in crude oil prices, posing challenges for Asian and European countries that rely on Middle Eastern oil. (Translated by Li Sha)

Classification
Region
North America, West Asia
Analytical Domain
Strategic
Primary Category / Secondary Categories
Political-Military / Strategic Assessment
SALUTE Report
Size
Not specified
Activity
Discussion of the potential impacts of a war with Iran
Location
Iran · United States
Unit
Former U.S. NATO Ambassador Ivo Daalder
Time
March 23, 2023
Equipment
-
Summary

Former U.S. NATO Ambassador Ivo Daalder warned that a potential war with Iran would have far-reaching consequences, surpassing those of the Iraq War. He highlighted the significant economic disruptions and geopolitical ramifications that could arise, particularly regarding U.S. alliances and global oil supply. Daalder criticized the current U.S. administration for not consulting allies before making decisions related to Iran, which could lead to increased tensions in the region.

Key Facts
  • Ivo Daalder stated that a war with Iran would have a much greater impact than the Iraq War.
  • The war could disrupt economic security, alliance relations, and global order.
  • Daalder compared the misjudgment of initiating a war with Iran to that of the Iraq War.
  • He noted that the current U.S. administration has not sought support from key allies before making decisions regarding Iran.