Germany's Military Rise: Europe's New Order Power or Cause for Concern?

The European security architecture is facing a fundamental realignment. Germany, long restrained in military matters, is rapidly evolving into the dominant defense power on the continent. This transformation not only raises strategic questions but also evokes historical fears among European partners—particularly in Paris.

The numbers speak a clear language: According to current projections from the Atlantic Council, Germany's defense budget will surpass the combined expenditures of France and the United Kingdom, the two European nuclear powers, in the coming years. While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the new 3.5 percent target for 2035 in January 2026, Berlin has already signaled that it may reach this mark ahead of schedule. The McKinsey Institute predicts that European defense spending could grow to around 800 billion euros by 2030—about 2.9 percent of GDP. Germany will bear the lion's share of this growth.

This development marks a drastic turnaround in German security policy. After the end of the Cold War, Berlin systematically reduced its armed forces, driven by the hope for a lasting peace dividend and historical restraint in light of the crimes of World War II. The Bundeswehr, once one of the largest armies in Europe with over 500,000 soldiers, shrank to fewer than 180,000 active soldiers. Equipment shortfalls became the norm, helicopters remained grounded, and tanks sat in depots. The famous remark of a former defense minister about broomsticks as substitutes for weapons during exercises became a symbol of German neglect.

However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a paradigm shift. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a "turning point" and established a 100 billion euro special fund for the Bundeswehr. What initially seemed like an emergency measure has developed into a long-term strategic realignment. Germany is investing heavily in modern weapon systems: F-35 fighter jets for nuclear sharing, new frigates, next-generation Leopard 2 tanks, artillery systems, and drones. The defense contractor Rheinmetall, long viewed with skepticism, has risen to become one of the most valuable companies in the DAX and is expanding rapidly.

NATO data clearly supports this trend: While European members and Canada increased their defense spending from 1.43 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.02 percent in 2024—totaling over 482 billion US dollars at constant 2021 prices—Germany is now significantly above this average and plans further increases. The NATO budget for 2026 allocates about 5.3 billion euros, but this only covers joint programs. The national expenditures of member states far exceed this, with Germany taking on an increasing share.

In Paris, this development is viewed with mixed feelings. President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly advocated for European "strategic autonomy" since 2017—the ability of Europe to act independently of the United States. However, the reality increasingly appears to be that this autonomy will have a German accent. French, Italian, and Polish government representatives privately express concerns: A militarily dominant Federal Republic could shift the European balance of power.

These worries are not merely abstract. The German defense industry is disproportionately benefiting from the investments. Rheinmetall plans new production facilities, acquires competitors, and secures long-term contracts not only from Germany but also from Poland, the Netherlands, and other NATO partners. The New York Times reported extensively on this dynamic in early March 2026, quoting French analysts who fear that European cooperation projects such as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) or the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) could ultimately be dominated by German industrial power.

There is no question that Europe needs more defense capabilities. The U.S. government under various administrations has repeatedly called for European allies to take on more responsibility. Transatlantic relations are in a crisis of trust, and the possibility of a reduced American security guarantee for Europe is more realistic than ever. In this context, Germany's military buildup is not only understandable but necessary.

Nevertheless, the question of balance arises. France and the United Kingdom possess nuclear deterrence, but their conventional forces are smaller and less modern than before. If Germany surpasses both in the coming years, the dynamics within the EU and NATO will shift. Historical memories of German military power will inevitably play a role, even though the Federal Republic has been a reliable democratic partner since 1945.

The crucial question is: How can Europe ensure that this military buildup does not lead to new divisions but strengthens collective defense? The answer lies in intensified cooperation. Joint European defense projects, integrated command structures, and a genuine Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) of the EU are essential. Germany must engage its partners, act transparently, and ensure that its investments serve the security of all of Europe.

The coming years will show whether Europe can master this balancing act. Germany's defense buildup is a reality—now political and strategic integration must follow to turn a potential concern into collective strength.