Hezbollah Rejects Partial Ceasefire, Claims Fighting in Southern Lebanon "Continues," Uncertain Prospects for Comprehensive Peace

On the 3rd, the United States, Israel, and Lebanon issued a joint statement agreeing to implement a ceasefire on the condition that Hezbollah stops firing and withdraws its armed personnel from southern Lebanon. Lebanese President Aoun stated on the 4th that the agreement could be implemented within 24 hours once final approval is obtained. However, Hezbollah's leader made a speech on the same day, clearly rejecting any partial ceasefire proposal and demanding a comprehensive ceasefire.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry subsequently stated that Hezbollah continues to launch attacks. Additionally, U.S. President Trump mentioned that progress has been made in the peace negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.

Analysis indicates that, since Hezbollah did not participate in the tripartite agreement and the exchanges of fire between the two sides have not ceased, coupled with the deep linkage between the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire and U.S.-Iran negotiations, the prospects for a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire are not optimistic.

Lebanon and Israel agree to implement a ceasefire

Hezbollah claims it will continue to resist

Lebanese president states ceasefire agreement can be implemented within 24 hours after approval

According to the joint statement from the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon on the 3rd, Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire, but on the condition that Hezbollah stops firing and withdraws its armed personnel from the southern Lebanese region south of the Litani River.

In response, Lebanese President Aoun stated on the 4th that once final approval is obtained, the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement can begin implementation within 24 hours.

Aoun mentioned that he is waiting for responses from all relevant parties and guarantees of commitment. Once the agreement receives final approval, it can be implemented within 24 hours. Aoun stated that this agreement is a "last chance" and warned that "if this opportunity is missed, all parties will bear corresponding responsibilities."

Hezbollah claims it will continue to resist Israel's illegal occupation

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem stated on the 4th that making the disarmament of Hezbollah a fundamental goal of any agreement means weakening Lebanon's strength and poses an existential threat to the Lebanese who insist on resistance, "this is tantamount to undermining Lebanon's sovereignty and stability, creating internal chaos and division among the people."

Qassem stated that Israel is attempting to achieve its goals through political means that it failed to achieve through war, which is unacceptable.

He emphasized that Hezbollah refuses to link the existence of "resistance forces" with the issues of stopping aggression and Israeli withdrawal, calling on relevant parties to stop this so-called "direct negotiation" farce. Qassem stated that the ceasefire must be comprehensive, and there should be no distinction between southern Lebanon and other regions of Lebanon, nor should the Israeli military be allowed to kill indiscriminately within Lebanese territory. As long as the occupation exists, resistance will continue.

Trump states progress in Lebanon-Israel peace talks

Israel condemns Hezbollah, Iran urges Israel to ceasefire

Trump states progress has been made in Lebanon-Israel peace negotiations

On the 4th local time, U.S. President Trump stated that although Hezbollah previously rejected the U.S.-mediated peace proposal, relevant negotiations are still progressing and have made some progress.

Trump stated that the situation in Lebanon is interconnected with the Iran issue. He revealed that relevant parties had proactively contacted the U.S. to discuss the ceasefire issue. "They called us to ask if it was possible to stop the conflict," Trump said.

Trump mentioned that he has communicated on this issue with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and has also made contact with Hezbollah.

Israel accuses Hezbollah of undermining regional stability

The Israeli Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 4th stating that Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem's refusal to ceasefire, along with multiple rocket interception incidents over the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, indicate that Hezbollah continues to attack Israel and undermine regional stability. The statement emphasized that Hezbollah, as an "Iranian proxy," must be disarmed according to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and its infrastructure in southern Lebanon must be completely dismantled.

On the same day, an Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson stated that the fighting in southern Lebanon "continues," and the IDF continues to strike Hezbollah facilities located in southern Lebanon.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps demands Israel stop attacks on Lebanon

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement on the 4th saying that Israel must immediately stop its attacks on the Lebanese people, quickly withdraw from the occupied territories of Lebanon, and recognize Lebanon's territorial integrity. The commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, Qani, stated that Iran supports Lebanon's resistance movement, and the fundamental demand of the regional "resistance front" is that Israel must withdraw to the positions it held before the outbreak of this round of conflict.

Can Lebanon and Israel really ceasefire?

Experts: Peace talks difficult to stop the fighting, exchanges of fire continue

Regarding whether Lebanon and Israel can truly ceasefire this time, Li Zixin, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, stated that based on previous experiences and the current consultations among the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon, a ceasefire on paper is easy, but a substantive ceasefire is difficult.

Recently, Hezbollah has made it clear that it does not accept any partial ceasefire and only accepts a comprehensive, complete, and genuine ceasefire, which significantly differs from the conditional and limited regional ceasefire proposal in the agreement.

Furthermore, as of now, both Israel and Hezbollah continue to carry out military strikes against each other, showing no signs of at least compromise or concession. Israeli Defense Minister Katz has also made it clear that the IDF will continue its ground operations in Lebanon at this stage. From Hezbollah's perspective, the IDF is likely to sign a ceasefire agreement while continuing military operations, and Hezbollah will likely respond in kind.

Currently, Iran has clearly made a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon an important prerequisite for reaching a ceasefire memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. The linkage effect between the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire and U.S.-Iran negotiations is becoming increasingly evident. If U.S.-Iran negotiations make progress in the future, the U.S. may exert pressure on Israel, while Iran coordinates with Hezbollah. Although this may not necessarily lead to a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, there is still some hope. If U.S.-Iran negotiations progress slowly, the likelihood of prolonged conflict between Lebanon and Israel will be very high. Therefore, overall, the more likely future scenario is one of intermittent fighting, with the scale of military actions being reduced, but a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire being difficult to achieve.

Reporters丨Yang Yuan, Zhang Yingzhe, Li Jiannan