How Much Will It Cost Europe to Break Free from Military Dependence on the U.S.?

According to a report by Reference News Network on May 10, the German newspaper Welt reported on May 7 that a team of experts from business, academia, and politics believes that achieving a high level of defense autonomy in Europe is feasible from both a technical and financial perspective.

On the 7th, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy released a report titled "Sparta 2.0." Experts estimate that the total cost for Europe to achieve defense autonomy over the next decade will be around 500 billion euros, averaging about 50 billion euros per year. In the report, "Europe" refers to EU countries plus the UK and Norway. The report points out that the ability to act autonomously and deterrence do not depend on costs, but rather on political will.

One of the authors of the report, former Airbus CEO Tom Enders, stated: "The bottleneck is neither funding nor technology, but whether there is the political will to act as Europeans, make decisions, and implement them quickly and pragmatically." Another author, former Deutsche Telekom CEO René Obermann, pointed out: "If defense cannot be organized independently, then national defense responsibilities cannot be borne independently. European sovereignty is not an option in foreign policy, but a fundamental prerequisite for strategic credibility and operational capability."

To break free from strategic dependence on the United States, the report identifies ten key areas of action, including building autonomous command systems, large-scale production of drones, developing air defense systems, and establishing autonomous satellite reconnaissance capabilities. The report estimates that by 2030, these key projects will cost between 150 billion and 200 billion euros, with significant progress expected within 3 to 5 years.

The implementation of this plan requires inter-state alliances rather than relying on a system that covers all of Europe. For example, large strategic projects could be coordinated jointly by Germany, France, Poland, and the UK. Furthermore, defense investment itself is also a technology policy. Moritz Schularick, director of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, said: "Every euro invested in software, artificial intelligence, and aerospace could generate an economic multiplier effect of up to 1.5 times. Europe not only has the capacity to make these investments but must also make them—otherwise, it will be counterproductive."

The report also calls for a change in procurement models, moving away from strict technical specifications to contracts based on outcomes. One of the authors, security expert Nico Lange, explained: "The issue is not whether to invest, but how to guide these investments to enhance Europe's operational capabilities, strengthen technological leadership, and create industrial value in Europe." (Translated by Zhong Sirui)