International Observation | Will "Punitive" Withdrawal Trigger a NATO Crisis?

Xinhua News Agency, Berlin, May 2 - Title: Will "Punitive" Troop Withdrawals Trigger a NATO Crisis?

Xinhua reporters Li Chao, Zhang Yirong, Zhang Xuan

In a recent "war of words" between U.S. President Trump and German Chancellor Merz regarding the situation in Iran, Trump threatened to reduce U.S. troops stationed in Germany. On May 1, the U.S. officially announced that it would withdraw about 5,000 troops from Germany.

Analysts believe that the immediate reason for this troop withdrawal is the U.S. "punishing" Germany for its "lack of effort" in the Iran conflict, but the deeper reason is a new rift in the longstanding issue of defense spending between the U.S. and Europe. The "stick" of troop withdrawal wielded by the Trump administration is forcing NATO countries, represented by Germany, to accelerate their efforts to reduce dependence on U.S. defense.

"Punitive" troop withdrawal?

On May 1, a U.S. Department of Defense official stated that the withdrawal plan is expected to be completed within the next 6 to 12 months. European and American media believe that the reduction of U.S. troops in Germany is a "retaliation" by the Trump administration for Chancellor Merz's previous criticisms.

Earlier this week, Merz stated that the U.S. military actions in Iran "lack strategy" and are "being humiliated by the Iranian leadership." The next day, President Trump "hit back," saying that Merz "doesn't know what he is talking about" and that Germany "is performing so poorly in both economic and other aspects." He then threatened to reduce U.S. troops stationed in Germany.

Since the large-scale attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel at the end of February, the Trump administration has repeatedly criticized NATO members like Germany for not being "helpful" and not assisting the U.S. in its efforts against Iran. Trump has previously stated that he wants to withdraw troops from Europe and has also said he is "seriously considering" withdrawing the U.S. from NATO.

Public opinion suggests that after Germany, the next "punitive" targets of the Trump administration may be Italy and Spain. These two countries previously refused to allow the U.S. to use their military bases for operations against Iran. On April 30, Trump stated that it is "very likely" that the number of U.S. troops stationed in Italy and Spain will be reduced in the future, saying, "Italy has never helped us," and "Spain has done very poorly."

Old scars torn open anew

Germany has responded relatively "calmly" to the U.S. troop reduction. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas stated that Germany "is prepared for this." He also reminded the Trump administration that U.S. military facilities in Germany, such as Ramstein Air Base, have an "irreplaceable" role for both the U.S. and Germany.

Germany is home to the largest U.S. military deployment in Europe. According to data released by the U.S. military in mid-April, approximately 86,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Europe, with about 39,000 stationed in Germany. After the withdrawal of 5,000 troops, the number of U.S. troops in Europe will roughly return to the level before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Joseph Maione, a political science professor at East China Normal University, pointed out that the immediate cause of this troop withdrawal is the Iran conflict, but it also once again exposes the "old scars" of the U.S.-Europe defense spending issue.

During his first presidential term, Trump repeatedly complained that NATO allies like Germany rely on the U.S. military "umbrella," while their own defense spending has long been "below standard." In 2020, the U.S. planned to relocate the U.S. European Command based in Stuttgart, southwestern Germany, and also planned to withdraw about 12,000 troops from Germany. This plan was ultimately abandoned with the arrival of the Biden administration.

Experts point out that there is a lack of consensus in U.S. politics regarding large-scale troop withdrawals from Europe. There are many voices in both the Democratic and Republican parties supporting the strengthening of the transatlantic alliance. The "Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act," passed by Congress at the end of last year, explicitly states that unless specific assessment results are met, the U.S. military is prohibited from reducing troop levels in the European Command area to below 76,000.

Professor Yu Xiaohua from the University of Göttingen in Germany believes that the game between the U.S. and Europe over troop issues has played out multiple times, but overall, it is difficult to change the fundamental strategic presence of the U.S. in Europe in the short term.

No "turning back" for Europe

Analysts believe that although the impact of this U.S. troop withdrawal is limited, the uncertainty hanging over European countries has created a deep sense of crisis, forcing Europe to accelerate its exploration of a path to defense independence.

Germany has launched a historic military expansion plan, aiming to build the Bundeswehr into "the strongest conventional army in Europe." Several other European countries have also shown a significant increase in political will and financial investment in defense.

Of course, the path to European defense independence is not easy. Rob de Wijk, an expert on international relations and security issues in the Netherlands, stated that a major challenge lies in the production capacity of European countries' defense industries, which often face complex regulations that lead to project approvals taking years.

Moreover, European countries remain relatively isolated in defense planning, production, and procurement, resulting in serious coordination challenges for European defense technology and industrial foundations. Europe's dependence on external sources for high-end weapon platforms and digital technologies is also a significant shortcoming that restricts its path to autonomy.

However, European public opinion believes that there is no "turning back" for Europe. Former German Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer recently wrote in the French newspaper Le Monde that NATO has begun to "disintegrate," and the "window of opportunity to reverse the situation" has closed. The long-standing security protection framework provided by the U.S. to Europe has come to an end, and Europe must now forge its own path.