J-15T First Publicly Displays YJ-15 Supersonic Anti-Ship Missiles: A Generational Leap in China's Carrier-Based Anti-Ship Capability

In early February, a photo of a gray-painted J-15T carrier-based aircraft carrying two YJ-15 supersonic anti-ship missiles circulated online. Although the authenticity of the photo has not been officially confirmed, based on the mounting configuration, paint details, and aircraft number, it is likely that this is the combat-ready status of the carrier-based aircraft unit of the Fujian (Type 003) aircraft carrier. If this photo is genuine, it signifies that the PLA Navy's carrier-based aircraft have finally bid farewell to the YJ-83K, a subsonic anti-ship missile that has been in service for nearly 20 years, and have entered the era of supersonic anti-ship capabilities.

Overlooked Technical Details: Why YJ-15 Instead of YJ-12?

At the 80th anniversary parade of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan last September, the YJ-15 made its first public appearance, but many people's attention was focused on the YJ-20, a hypersonic anti-ship missile, overlooking the tactical value of the YJ-15. Visually, the YJ-15 is clearly smaller than the YJ-12—the latter is about 7 meters long and weighs around 2.5 tons, which is a heavy load for the J-15 carrier-based aircraft. The YJ-15, on the other hand, is estimated to be about 6.7 meters long and should weigh under 1.5 tons, making it more suitable for carrier-based aircraft.

More critically, there is the propulsion system. The YJ-15 uses a subsonic ramjet engine, which is a mature propulsion technology for supersonic missiles: air is compressed in the intake and slowed to subsonic speeds before ignition in the combustion chamber. This type of engine is most efficient in the speed range of 3-5 Mach, ensuring both range (approximately 500 kilometers) and maintaining high-speed penetration capability. In contrast, while the YJ-12 has a longer range (reportedly over 600 kilometers), its size and weight limit its application on carrier-based aircraft—under the ski-jump takeoff mode of the Liaoning and Shandong carriers, the J-15 carrying two YJ-12s would have almost no fuel left.

From YJ-83K to YJ-15: Not Just a Speed Upgrade

For the past decade, the main anti-ship weapon of the PLA's carrier-based aircraft has been the YJ-83K/KH. This is a subsonic missile based on an improved YJ-8, using a small turbojet engine, with a range of about 280 kilometers and a flight speed of approximately 0.9 Mach. In simple terms, this was a "usable" solution—when the carrier-based aircraft system was first established, the priority was to address the issue of availability.

However, subsonic anti-ship missiles face severe challenges in modern naval warfare. Taking the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burke-class destroyers as an example, their Standard-6 missiles have an effective interception range of over 200 kilometers, making them nearly "target practice" for a 0.9 Mach target. The YJ-15, on the other hand, penetrates at speeds of 4-5 Mach, leaving the opponent with only a quarter to a fifth of the original reaction time. From target detection to missile impact, the entire process may take only 2-3 minutes, which poses a significant challenge to fleet air defense systems.

More importantly, there is the advantage of range. A range of 500 kilometers means that the J-15T can launch attacks at the edge of the operational radius of U.S. carrier-based aircraft without having to penetrate deep into the opponent's air defense network. If combined with aerial refueling, the J-15T could even execute anti-ship missions from a distance of 800-1000 kilometers from the Fujian, greatly enhancing the safety margin of the carrier strike group.

The "Stealth Dividend" of the Fujian

The reason this photo is noteworthy also has an easily overlooked background: the electromagnetic catapult system equipped on the Fujian.

The Liaoning and Shandong carriers use ski-jump takeoff, which limits the takeoff weight of the J-15 when fully loaded. If it carries two YJ-15s (estimated total weight of 3 tons) along with two combat missiles, the fighter's takeoff weight would reach about 28 tons, nearing the limit for ski-jump takeoff, significantly compressing fuel capacity. However, the electromagnetic catapult on the Fujian allows the J-15T to take off with a maximum takeoff weight close to 33 tons, meaning that under the same weapon load, the fighter can carry an additional 4-5 tons of fuel, increasing its operational radius by about 30-40%.

From this perspective, the timing of the YJ-15's entry into service coincides perfectly with the Fujian's impending combat readiness, which is not a coincidence but a reflection of systematic equipment development.

Comparative Perspective: The Gap in Anti-Ship Capabilities Between China and the U.S.

An interesting comparison is that the U.S. Navy is still using the AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missile and its variants, which is a subsonic missile with a range of about 240 kilometers and a speed of 0.85 Mach, having been in service even longer than the YJ-83. Although the U.S. military is developing the LRASM stealth anti-ship missile and hypersonic anti-ship missiles, the main weapon for carrier-based aircraft in the short term remains the Harpoon.

In this sense, the J-15T equipped with the YJ-15 has already achieved a technological leap over the U.S. F/A-18E/F in anti-ship capabilities—at least in terms of missile speed and range, these two key metrics. Of course, the U.S. military has advantages in overall combat systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and pilot training levels, but the narrowing or even partial reversal of the equipment generation gap is indeed a signal worth noting.

Unresolved Questions

Finally, one question remains: why did the YJ-15 make its public debut last September, but photos of it mounted on the J-15T only surfaced in February of this year?

One possibility is that the Fujian's carrier-based aircraft unit has only recently completed the mounting tests and tactical training for the YJ-15 and is now entering the stage of operational deployment. Another possibility is that, in the current geopolitical environment, showcasing this capability itself serves as a strategic signal—informing the outside world that the PLA carrier strike group is now capable of striking large surface targets at greater distances and higher speeds.

However, what may be truly noteworthy is not the YJ-15 itself, but the technological trajectory behind it. As a subsonic ramjet missile, the YJ-15 has already reached the performance ceiling of this technological path. Future anti-ship weapons equipped on carrier-based aircraft are likely to be hypersonic cruise missiles using scramjet engines, or even tactical hypersonic weapons with boost-glide capabilities. At that time, 5 Mach may not even be considered fast.