Japan's Attempt to Develop Offensive Capabilities with Drones Poses a Real Threat to Peace in the Surrounding Region, Experts Say

[Global Times Special Correspondent Xie Zhao, Global Times Reporter Ma Jun] Japan's continued push for re-militarization is provoking strong opposition from neighboring countries. Among its series of actions, particularly concerning is Japan's movement towards developing unmanned combat capabilities. The U.S. magazine "The Diplomat" noted on the 15th that the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force recently established two organizations related to unmanned combat, highlighting that Japan is planning to adapt to conflicts and wars centered around drones. Chinese experts interviewed by the Global Times on the 16th stated that Japan is currently attempting to integrate advanced missiles and low-cost drones to enhance its offensive combat capabilities. This move will further undermine the restrictions imposed by Japan's "peace constitution" and pose an increasingly realistic threat to peace and security in the surrounding region.

Intent on Developing Offensive Drones

According to reports, Japan's Defense Minister Kōzuki Shinjirō attended the establishment ceremony of the "Unmanned Defense Capability Promotion Office" and the "Unmanned Systems Office" held by the Ground Self-Defense Force in Tokyo on the 13th. According to Japan's NHK website, the "Unmanned Defense Capability Promotion Office" is staffed by seven Self-Defense Force officials responsible for developing concepts for unmanned equipment operations, conducting research and development, and training personnel. The "Unmanned Systems Office" consists of six Self-Defense Force members responsible for the procurement, logistics, and maintenance of unmanned platforms. Reports indicate that the Ground Self-Defense Force aims to accelerate the deployment of drones through more specialized organizations.

The Diplomat magazine stated that the ongoing reduction of the domestic labor force is a significant factor driving the Japan Self-Defense Force's transition to an unmanned combat system. However, more concerning is the hidden intention behind this move to develop new types of offensive capabilities. NHK reported that Kōzuki Shinjirō declared at a meeting aimed at Japanese startups on April 10, "Japan must think about new ways of warfare, but currently, there are no companies in Japan manufacturing attack drones; we must seriously consider how to produce them ourselves." He also clearly expressed the idea that Japan should produce attack drones domestically.

Reports indicate that as of the end of March last year, the Ground Self-Defense Force possessed approximately 1,200 unmanned systems, primarily for reconnaissance. The next step for the Self-Defense Force's unmanned equipment will shift from primarily reconnaissance to "more diversified and strike-capable unmanned units." U.S. media mentioned that the "Unmanned Defense Capability Promotion Office" will also be responsible for the integration of drones, unmanned ground vehicles, unmanned surface vessels, and unmanned underwater vehicles. The integration of these unmanned combat systems is crucial for enhancing the Self-Defense Force's surveillance and rapid response capabilities in the so-called "Southwest Islands."

Seizing the Opportunity to Break Through "Exclusive Defense"

Japan's Ministry of Defense has been criticized for a long-standing lack of crisis awareness regarding the information technology revolution, failing to anticipate that drones would change the nature of warfare. However, The Diplomat has noted that Japan has been changing its attitude towards unmanned equipment in recent years.

Reports indicate that drones have been widely used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent Middle East conflicts, highlighting the increasingly important role of unmanned systems in modern warfare. They are relatively low-cost and can be deployed in large numbers, proving to be very effective in reconnaissance, strike missions, and attrition warfare, challenging the structure of traditional combat forces. "Japan has incorporated its emphasis on drones into its strategic documents." In the new "Three Security Documents," including the "National Security Strategy" released in December 2022, Japan listed drones as one of the seven pillars for enhancing defense capabilities, viewing them as potential "game changers" that "can fundamentally reshape force composition and operational concepts." The two newly established organizations within the Ground Self-Defense Force aim to translate this into actual capabilities.

NHK reported that the Ministry of Defense is investing significant funds to establish unmanned combat units. The new "Three Security Documents" propose that the Ministry of Defense will invest approximately 1 trillion yen (about 62.87 billion USD) over five years from the 2023-2027 fiscal years to procure thousands of unmanned systems for the Self-Defense Force.

More importantly, the Self-Defense Force has also begun to shift from traditional "exclusive defense" to a more offensive posture through the development of these unmanned systems. In March of this year, the Ground Self-Defense Force began equipping itself with loitering munitions for close-range strikes against ground forces and plans to introduce unmanned systems capable of medium- to long-range attacks on lightly armored vehicles and surface vessels.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Japan also plans to introduce a unit composed of long-range suicide drones and low-cost missiles to enhance deterrence against neighboring regions. Reports indicate that the strategy focuses on a "comprehensive attack" combining suicide drones and long-range missiles, which will be used to destroy the opponent's air defense systems and missile launch bases.

Reports indicate that the concepts proposed by the Japanese government are inspired by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle Eastern wars, prioritizing the development of suicide drones or long-range loitering munitions that can fly over 1,000 kilometers, strike targets, and explode. Japan is also considering developing new types of drones launched from aircraft or submarines, as well as unmanned surface vessels or unmanned underwater vehicles, to achieve diversified counterattack capabilities.

Currently, Japan is deploying a series of long-range missiles, including the "Type 25 Ship-based Anti-Ship Missile" with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers, stationed at the Kengun base in Kumamoto Prefecture. However, Yomiuri Shimbun stated that the Japanese government hopes to have drones that are cheaper and easier to procure in large quantities than missiles to enhance sustained combat capabilities. Kyodo News reported that "officials are currently conceptualizing a 'new type of warfare' that integrates these missiles with long-range attack drones." Japanese government sources indicated that the cost of a cruise missile may exceed 160 million yen, while a similar range suicide drone costs about 5.6 million yen.

Severely Undermining Regional Peace and Security

The Diplomat magazine also mentioned that Japan is still in the early stages of building its unmanned combat system, and its effectiveness will depend on whether Japan can quickly expand procurement scales, integrate unmanned systems into joint operations, and establish supporting operational regulations and training systems.

Chinese experts interviewed by the Global Times stated that the approach Japan is taking to develop unmanned combat equipment such as drones clearly shows that the unmanned combat equipment recently planned for introduction by the Self-Defense Force has shifted from its original reconnaissance purpose (such as the U.S.-made "Global Hawk" drone) to openly executing offensive combat missions. Experts noted that Japan previously planned to introduce reconnaissance-strike integrated drones to replace its active armed helicopters, with candidate models including Turkey's TB-2 and Israel's "Heron," which can attack targets over a thousand kilometers away and possess substantial long-range strike capabilities. Now, Japan plans to further enhance its offensive capabilities by integrating low-cost suicide drones with advanced missiles.

In response to Japan's deployment of long-range missiles and other offensive forces, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin stated that Japan's right-wing forces are accelerating their push for "re-militarization," frequently advocating for amendments to the "peace constitution," hastening revisions to the "Three Security Documents," and attempting to alter the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles." The clear deployment of long-range offensive weapons, with ranges far exceeding Japan's territorial limits, completely tears away the facade of "exclusive defense," "passive defense," and "self-defense," fully proving that Japan's "new militarism" is not just a dangerous trend but a blatant reality threat, severely undermining regional peace and security.