Japan's Ministry of Defense Requests 8.9 Trillion Yen for FY 2027, Indicating Shift to Drones and Long-Range Missiles

It has been reported that the estimated budget request for FY 2027 from the Ministry of Defense in Ichigaya, Tokyo, is around "8.9 trillion yen." On August 20, the Asahi Shimbun reported that the ministry is preparing an initial request of approximately 8.9 trillion yen, the largest ever, and that there is a possibility it could grow further during the year-end budget formulation. An article from Kyodo News, distributed by the Mainichi Shimbun, also indicates that the request amount could reach 8.9 trillion yen, and potentially 10 trillion yen, as the final year of the defense capability development plan totaling 43 trillion yen from FY 2023 to FY 2027, according to government officials.

What I find noteworthy is not just that the amount is the largest ever. The pillars of the request are shifting towards drones, AI-based command and control support, long-range missiles, cloud systems for classified data, and maintaining the defense industrial base. This budget represents a change in the way of fighting itself, rather than the traditional discussions about increasing the number of vessels and aircraft in the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

8.9 Trillion Yen is Not a Ceiling but a Starting Point

This estimated budget request coincides with the review of the national security strategy, defense strategy, and defense capability development plan decided in 2022. According to the Asahi Shimbun, the request includes many items without specified amounts. While this is not uncommon in Kasumigaseki's budget practices, it carries significant meaning in the defense sector. If the policy for revising the three security documents is solidified by the end of the year, actual amounts may be filled in for the items that were left blank at the estimated request stage, bringing the initial budget proposal closer to 10 trillion yen.

The Takai administration has already advanced its goal of raising defense spending, including related expenses, to 2% of GDP. Furthermore, since the Trump administration reportedly sought a level of 3.5% of GDP from allied countries, discussions within Japan are likely to shift from "Have we achieved 2%?" to "Is the 2% being utilized effectively?" As someone from the Maritime Self-Defense Force, I would say that the critical point in practical terms is not the total budget amount, but whether maintenance, munitions, personnel, and communications can all grow simultaneously.

Drones and AI Will Change the Timing of Defense for the Southwestern Islands

The fact that the Ministry of Defense is reportedly including the development and acquisition of attack drones in its requests is directly linked to the defense of the southwestern islands. Traditionally, Japan's island defense has tended to consider air superiority, deployment of vessels, and the mobility of ground forces in that order. However, what the Ukraine war has shown is the reality that inexpensive drones and one-way attack drones can paralyze airfields, radars, and supply depots in a short time.

AI-based command and control support should also be viewed in the same context. It is not a device that replaces human judgment. Rather, it is a tool that allows commanders to process information coming from multiple islands, multiple sensors, and multiple allied forces at a speed they can manage. For those protecting SLOC (Sea Lines of Communication), merely reacting after the enemy launches missiles is too late. The ability to simultaneously read signs, supplies, communication disruptions, and drone flight paths will be necessary.

The Significance of Submarine-Launched Hypersonic Missiles

The Asahi Shimbun reported that the request also includes the development of hypersonic missiles launched from submarines to enhance counterattack capabilities. This represents a significant shift. While land-based long-range missiles are easily understood as a deterrent, fixed or semi-fixed launch bases are more likely to be incorporated into an adversary's initial strike plans. In contrast, submarine-launched systems have a high degree of concealment, making it difficult for the opponent to determine "where to strike first."

However, there is a point that should not be overestimated. Hypersonic weapons do not function solely based on the projectile itself. They require target information, communication, launch authorization, and confirmation of results to become effective. Particularly for submarines, silence is key to survivability, and increasing real-time communication can compromise concealment. How to manage this contradiction has not yet been sufficiently explained.

North Korea and China's Reactions Reflect the Side Effects of the Budget

On August 22, the Chosun Ilbo reported North Korea's criticism of Japan's defense budget. North Korea has positioned Japan's military buildup as "preparation for invasion" and has reacted against the view that it could reach a scale of 10 trillion yen. China has also criticized the defense expansion under the Takai administration as a return to "militarism."

Such criticisms are propaganda. However, just because they are propaganda does not mean they should be ignored. If the adversary uses Japan's capability enhancement as a pretext to justify its own missile tests, maritime police activities, and aircraft approaches, the budget will create challenges for both deterrence and crisis management. The Ministry of Defense's request reportedly includes not only equipment acquisition but also strengthening cooperation with allied countries and developing the domestic defense industrial base. Without accompanying diplomatic explanatory capabilities, this could provide openings for information warfare from neighboring countries.

The Real Shortage is Personnel and Sustained Combat Capability

This 8.9 trillion yen request marks a turning point in Japan's defense policy, shifting from "increasing quantity" to "updating the way of fighting." Drones, AI, long-range missiles, and cloud infrastructure all align with the realities of the first island chain. However, in my view, the greatest concern is not the new equipment itself.

The issue lies in the personnel to handle it, the technicians to maintain it, the industries to continue supplying it, and the speed at which politics can make decisions on launch authorization and alliance coordination in times of crisis. Expensive missiles support deterrence, but to withstand a war of attrition with inexpensive drones, munitions depots, factories, and training days are necessary. Whether the figure of 8.9 trillion yen truly translates into defense capability will be reflected not in the Ministry of Finance's assessments at the end of the year, but in the duty rosters and supply plans on the ground.

Sources

• Asahi Shimbun, August 20, 2026, Japan’s initial 8.9 trillion yen defense budget expected to grow
• Mainichi Japan/Kyodo, August 8, 2026, Japan’s Defense Ministry eyes record 8.9 tril. yen in FY 2027 budget request
• Chosun Ilbo, August 22, 2026, North Korea Condemns Japan’s Defense Budget as Invasion Preparation