More Countries Affected, Conflict Faces Spillover Risks, Renewed US-Iran Hostilities Raise Global Concerns

[Global Times Special Correspondents Chen Xin, Wu Ming, Global Times Correspondent in Egypt Huang Peizhao] "We will hit them hard because it is our turn to strike them now." After Iran launched a sudden missile attack on U.S. troops stationed in Jordan on the 29th, U.S. President Trump publicly threatened to punish Iran. The U.S. Central Command subsequently carried out large-scale airstrikes against Iran, marking the first direct attack on Iran since the U.S. suspended attacks on Iran last week. The New York Times reported on the 30th that the Middle East is on the brink of escalating war, with renewed hostilities between Iran and the U.S. igniting conflicts on other fronts, potentially drawing more countries into the fray. On the 30th, the Egyptian government confirmed for the first time that the fire that broke out the previous day on two gas ships at the Damietta port was caused by a drone attack rather than an accident; Saudi Arabia also conducted joint strikes with the U.S. for the first time on the 29th against "Iran-backed" militia groups within Iraq; tensions between Ukraine and Iran are also escalating. "Will the U.S. choose rationality, or continue to make strategic mistakes?" commented Iran's Mehr News Agency on the 30th, stating that the U.S. is in a dilemma. The outcome of war depends not only on the battlefield; sometimes, the greatest failure is the result of misjudgment and overconfidence in military power. Iranian media pointed out that the situation has now entered a new phase. Multi-front conflicts, great power competition, energy crises, and the fragility of the global economy could escalate any tension into an international crisis.

This round of actions is "more dangerous" than earlier this month

According to CBS News, the U.S. Central Command stated on social media on the 29th that U.S. forces completed a new round of large-scale strikes against Iran on the evening of the 29th Eastern Time, targeting "dozens" of sites belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. This strike lasted for two hours and was a response to Iran's attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East the previous day.

According to Iran's Mehr News Agency on the 30th, after the U.S. launched its attack, multiple explosions occurred in southern Iran. Explosions were reported in places such as Qeshm Island, Kish Island, Bandar Abbas, Abadan, and Bushehr. The media commented that this attack clearly continues Washington's longstanding pattern of unwarranted aggression, violation of international law, and tearing up existing agreements. It reported that Iran's attack on the U.S. military base in Jordan the previous day was a "legitimate defensive" strike, and stated that although the U.S. claims that the temporary ceasefire is to allow space for diplomatic mediation, its refusal to end its illegal military presence and continued support for regional turmoil has broken the brief ceasefire.

According to the Iranian Students' News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated on the 30th that "the aggressors will surely be punished today," while warning "countries that assist the aggressors" that they will face serious consequences if they do not change their behavior. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also reiterated on the 30th that the Strait of Hormuz is "our territory," stating that as long as U.S. officials continue to make extreme statements, implement threats, and interfere with maritime activities in the region, the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened.

According to the Associated Press, Jordan's air defense system intercepted five missiles launched from Iran in the early hours of the 30th. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on the 30th that in response to the U.S. attack, the Guard Corps attacked the U.S. military base in Azraq, Jordan, destroying three F-35 fighter jets, severely damaging three other aircraft, and killing several "enemy" officers and technicians.

Spain's El País reported on the 30th that the latest U.S.-Iran actions are more dangerous than the mutual attacks that occurred earlier this month, as they take place at a time when other regional powers are intervening in hostilities, increasing the likelihood of igniting a full-scale war in the Middle East.

Egypt confirms drone attack

In the latest developments of the conflict, the drone attack on Egyptian port vessels has raised concerns about the spillover of the conflict.

The Egyptian cabinet issued a statement on the 30th confirming that preliminary investigations have determined that the fire on two vessels at Damietta port on the 29th was caused by a drone attack, but the responsible party has not yet been identified, and relevant departments are continuing to investigate and will take all measures to maintain national security. According to reports from the U.S. maritime link website on the 29th, citing informed sources, a drone struck a U.S.-owned gas storage and transportation vessel at the port, and the fire subsequently spread to another gas ship.

Multiple media outlets pointed out that although Iran had previously launched attacks on several countries hosting U.S. military bases in the region, this is the first time since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war that Egypt itself has become a target of attack. The Wall Street Journal quoted Egyptian officials as saying that the Egyptian government initially blamed this attack on Iran, believing it to be an attempt by Iran to escalate the conflict. The report stated that this attack indicates that routes considered as alternatives for the security of the Strait of Hormuz are also increasingly likely to become targets of attack. Experts believe this sends a message that "the conflict will not be confined to any specific area."

As Egypt is affected by the conflict, Saudi Arabia officially intervened on the 29th, striking "Iran-backed" militia groups within Iraq. The New York Times analyzed that Saudi Arabia's delayed intervention nearly six months after the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict reflects the country's dilemma of needing to deter potential attacks while avoiding being drawn into a larger-scale conflict.

According to Axios on the 30th, a U.S. official and an informed source stated that Trump met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman on the 29th. Prior to this, Khalid had met with U.S. Vice President Pence. Sources said that Khalid expressed during the meeting that the attacks by Iran-aligned militia groups on Saudi infrastructure and energy facilities had crossed a red line, and Saudi Arabia must respond. However, "the strikes in Iraq do not mean that Saudi Arabia advocates for an escalation of the situation, but rather indicate that Saudi Arabia is prepared to defend itself when necessary." Reports also indicated that Khalid stated that Saudi Arabia can handle the situation with the Houthis and currently does not need U.S. intervention. Additionally, Saudi Arabia is also negotiating with the Houthis.

Reports indicate that the Saudi Defense Minister visited the White House the day after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Trump. Sources said that Khalid told Pence that Netanyahu is pushing for an escalation of conflict with Iran, while Saudi Arabia hopes to de-escalate the situation, as this is the more productive path.

According to the Israel Times on the 29th, a senior Israeli official revealed that Netanyahu recently presented "three scenarios" regarding the situation with Iran during his meeting with Trump, including reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran, continuing to pressure Iran through economic sanctions without an agreement, and launching a large-scale offensive against Iran again.

According to Al Jazeera on the 30th, Zaidan Al-Khenaani, a non-resident researcher at the Middle East Global Affairs Council, stated that neighboring Arab countries have a common goal of avoiding involvement in the conflict. The New York Times mentioned that the U.S.-Iran conflict poses significant risks to Saudi Arabia's plans to establish itself as a commercial and tourism hub, and limited oil exports also impose high economic costs on Saudi Arabia.

As a result of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the Saudi economy has experienced its most severe quarterly contraction since the pandemic. Data released by the Saudi General Authority for Statistics on the 30th showed that the country's GDP in the second quarter of this year fell by 4.8% year-on-year, with a 24.7% contraction in the oil sector being a major factor.

U.S. Poll: U.S.-Iran conflict increasingly unpopular

Despite the resurgence of conflict in the Middle East, Pakistan, as a mediator, stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are still "ongoing." According to AFP, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Andrabee on the 30th told the media in Islamabad: "Negotiations between the parties are still ongoing, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue and de-escalation of the situation."

According to NBC News on the 29th, during a meeting last week, Trump expressed frustration over military options against Iran and the failure to reach a ceasefire agreement, and lashed out at his aides. However, the White House denied that the president had lost his temper. U.S. officials told NBC that the lack of clear objectives for the government regarding this conflict has made it difficult to formulate a final plan. The military has been preparing to launch a new round of large-scale offensives but lacks clear guidance. One official stated: "We have achieved a series of tactical victories, but due to the lack of clear policy guidance and decision-making on the future direction, we are facing strategic failure."

"We are really in a bind," said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asian affairs at the U.S. think tank Defense Priorities, to CNN. CNN reported that putting hundreds of thousands of U.S. soldiers at risk in ground wars or acknowledging Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz—these options that could change the situation are so unacceptable that the phrase "there are no good choices" has become a cliché.

According to a recent poll conducted by the Associated Press-Chicago University National Opinion Research Center from July 23 to 27, about two-thirds of American adults believe that the U.S.-Iran conflict is not worth the cost. Currently, only 28% approve of Trump's handling of the Iran issue, down from 34% last month. The report suggests that this survey further confirms the unpopularity of the U.S.-Iran conflict within the United States.