Mutual Attacks Hinder Grain Exports, Multiple Parties Concerned About Food Supply, Ukraine Proposes "Black Sea Ceasefire" to Russia

[Global Times Special Correspondent in Russia, Xiao Xinxin] "Ukraine has proposed to Russia to stop mutual attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea." According to a report by Reuters on the 13th, sources revealed that Ukraine has made this proposal to Russia through a third party and is currently awaiting a response from the Russian side. The report stated that as a major global grain exporter, both Russia and Ukraine have recently escalated their attacks on each other's commercial shipping and port facilities in the Black Sea. Several terminals in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have been suspended by Russia, and the port in Odessa, Ukraine, has also been severely affected due to continuous attacks. This has led to a significant decline in grain exports from both countries, pushing global food prices higher.

According to reports, ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov accounted for 88% of Russia's maritime grain exports last quarter. Due to Ukraine's attacks earlier this week, three major terminals in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk—NZT, NKHP, and KSK—have announced suspensions, with a combined annual throughput of 24.6 million tons, accounting for about 75% of Russia's grain transshipment volume at Black Sea ports. Industry data shows that Russia's maritime grain exports in July fell by 20.3% year-on-year. Analysts expect that due to the suspension of the aforementioned terminals, Russia's grain exports in August may decrease by 700,000 to 1.2 million tons, potentially reaching "a 10-year low." The president of the Russian Grain Union, Zlochevsky, stated that Russia's grain exports in August may struggle to reach 2 million tons, compared to 5.7 million tons in the same period last year. Other analyses suggest that Russia's grain exports for the 2026-2027 fiscal year may drop to 21.7 million tons, and if security risks continue to rise, this figure could further fall to 17.5 million tons.

Ukraine's grain exports have also suffered a severe blow. Reports indicate that agricultural products account for nearly 60% of Ukraine's export revenue. As one of the world's largest producers of wheat, corn, and sunflower seeds, about 90% of Ukraine's export products are shipped through the ports in Odessa. Russian attacks have nearly halted the export of agricultural products from these ports. In the first two weeks of August, Ukraine's grain exports fell by 75% year-on-year. The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that due to the port blockades, Ukraine may lose about $2.5 billion in revenue by the end of the year. The Ukrainian Agricultural Committee estimates that losses for Ukrainian farmers due to increased logistics costs are about $3 billion. According to reports, the head of the Kazakhstan Grain Union, Karabanov, stated that the combined impact of Russia and Ukraine could create a supply gap of 30 to 40 million tons in the global grain market, potentially driving global food prices up by 15% to 20%. Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan stated on the 8th that Turkey has proposed to both Russia and Ukraine to suspend attacks in the Black Sea.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated on the 14th that Russia has not yet received an official request from Turkey regarding the specific terms of the proposal through official channels. She said that Ukrainian military drones have carried out "brazen terrorist attacks" on civilian vessels in the Black Sea, aiming to deliberately undermine the stability of civilian shipping in the Black Sea, further escalating tensions and prolonging the conflict. Russia has not seen any preconditions for improving the situation, and therefore has no reason to take measures that would give the Kyiv regime a temporary respite.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated on the 14th to Russian media that Turkey sincerely hopes for stability in the Black Sea situation. At the same time, Turkey is discussing the need to reach some agreement to prevent vessels from becoming targets of attacks. However, these attacks were not initiated by Russia. When Ukrainian military drones attacked Turkish cargo ships, tankers, or civilian vessels, as well as the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and even directly attacked vessels associated with American companies, neither Turkey nor the United States made any public statements.

TASS reported on the 13th, citing analysis, that Ukraine's export of related products is heavily reliant on maritime transport, and its proposal to stop mutual attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea is merely an attempt to achieve tactical objectives to preserve its logistics routes and to impose unilateral restrictions on Russia. For Ukraine, this is not a peace initiative, but a means to cover up its own weaknesses. According to Ukrainian news agency reports, Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Prilepchuk stated on the 14th that Russia has begun large-scale attacks on civilian vessels in Ukrainian waters, and once a numerical pressure is formed, it will be "difficult for Ukraine to cope."

RBC—Ukrainian News Agency reported that the Ukrainian Agricultural Enterprises Club estimated on the 13th that due to export restrictions, Ukraine may be unable to supply about 9 million tons of agricultural products to foreign markets from August to October, which could lead to a revenue loss of $1.9 billion to $2.8 billion. Alternative logistics routes currently cannot fully replace maritime exports. If goods are transferred to the Danube River route for export, the volume is limited by river water levels and vessel draft depth, while rail transport relies on the capacity of border ports and transshipment infrastructure, and road transport is too expensive for such a large freight volume. According to reports, Ukrainian Minister of Agricultural Policy and Food Vysotsky stated on the 14th that due to port operations being hindered and export speeds being limited, Ukraine may face a domestic grain storage capacity shortage of 8 to 11 million tons in November. It is still difficult to predict when maritime exports will be fully restored.

Reuters recently quoted sources as saying that Ukraine hopes to transport grain to Romania's Constanța port via rail through Moldova. Both sides are currently negotiating issues such as transportation timing, volume, and freight rates. Ukraine is trying to negotiate a 50% discount on standard freight rates, while Moldova is requesting guarantees on the volume of grain transiting through its territory. The British Lloyd's List reported that the high-intensity mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine have made the Black Sea one of the most dangerous commercial shipping environments in the world. 

U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs reported on the 13th that the peace process between Russia and Ukraine remains deadlocked. Contacts between the parties have yet to form a complete, coherent, and common framework for a peace process. The core parties, including Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe, have not yet sat at the same clearly structured negotiating table.