Regarding the Ceasefire with Iran, Is the U.S. "Not Fighting" This Time or "Unable to Fight"?

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 27 (Reporters Chen Shulin, Liu Pinran) - Recent signs indicate a de-escalation in the military confrontations between the United States and Iran. According to U.S. media reports, President Trump decided on the 24th to suspend strikes against Iran, marking a pause in U.S. airstrikes on Iran that had lasted for more than ten consecutive days. Reuters reported on the 26th, citing Iranian sources, that if U.S. military attacks stop, Iran will also cease its actions.

Analysts believe that the U.S. suspension of airstrikes against Iran is not a "voluntary withdrawal," but rather a "forced pause" due to practical difficulties and multiple considerations.

First, the effectiveness of airstrikes against Iran is limited. The U.S. Axios news website reported on the 26th that General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, believes that the actual effectiveness of maintaining the current scale of airstrikes is limited and has suggested that Trump suspend the strikes. While the military operations have had limited results, the number of U.S. casualties continues to rise. Statistics from the U.S. Department of Defense on the 26th show that since the U.S. resumed airstrikes against Iran in early July, four U.S. service members have died and 207 have been injured.

Professor Ding Long from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University stated that the continuous airstrikes by the U.S. military have drastically reduced the marginal utility of military strikes, and maintaining military operations not only fails to achieve the expected results but also leads to more casualties and resource consumption. Therefore, the U.S. side urgently needs to find a way to step back, which is why it has paused the attacks.

Secondly, the U.S. military's ammunition stockpile is "flashing red." U.S. media, including The New York Times, previously reported that the U.S. military has consumed over 1,200 "Patriot" air defense system interceptors in the conflict with Iran, and its stockpile has dropped to a "worrisome level." The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, has privately warned Trump that the shortage of air defense interceptors could weaken the ability to protect U.S. forces and allies in the Middle East, potentially leading to more U.S. casualties in retaliatory actions against Iran.

Additionally, reports indicate that besides the shortage of air defense interceptors, the U.S. military's "Tomahawk" cruise missiles and other precision strike munitions have also seen significant consumption. Analysts believe this could weaken U.S. military deterrence globally.

Thirdly, the mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran have driven up energy prices, forcing the U.S. to ease the situation. The ongoing mutual attacks and blockades between the U.S. and Iran for over ten days have led to renewed "blockages" in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the Houthi forces in Yemen recently claimed to have implemented a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, further exacerbating concerns in the international community about potential disruptions to shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The "dual strait crisis" has significantly pushed up international oil prices, directly raising domestic oil prices in the U.S. Data from the American Automobile Association shows that the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. has recently risen again to over $4 per gallon.

With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, the Trump administration is concerned that a continued escalation of military actions against Iran will further drive up energy prices, impact the domestic economy and people's livelihoods, and ultimately backfire on the Republican Party's electoral prospects. Multiple polls indicate that a majority of Americans view the U.S.-Iran conflict as "unwelcome" and "a mistake." Under public pressure, the Trump administration has no choice but to choose to ease tensions with Iran.

Other analyses point out that Trump's decision to halt military strikes against Iran aims to create space for diplomatic mediation. According to a memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran in mid-June, both sides committed to negotiating and reaching a final agreement within 60 days. As the 60-day deadline approaches, the diplomatic window between the U.S. and Iran is gradually narrowing. U.S. media reports that several American officials have suggested that the Trump administration should adopt a "carrot and stick" approach, continuing to apply pressure on Iran while also advancing negotiations.

However, analysts believe that despite the U.S. pausing its strikes against Iran under multiple pressures, the situation has not completely cooled down, and the risk of renewed conflict still exists.

First, mutual trust between the U.S. and Iran is difficult to restore. Reuters recently cited Iranian sources saying that Iran is "more skeptical than optimistic" about the U.S. side's sincerity in this ceasefire, and Trump also threatened on the 24th, after announcing the suspension of strikes against Iran, that the U.S. could continue its military strikes against Iran. Experts believe that the mutual trust between the U.S. and Iran is fragile, and even if mutual attacks are currently paused, there is always the possibility of "accidental clashes" in the future.

Secondly, the risk of regional conflicts spilling over still exists. Some media analyses point out that the current situation in Lebanon is also unstable, and if Israel and Hezbollah restart large-scale conflicts, it could easily trigger Iranian retaliation against the U.S. and Israel. Additionally, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu set to visit the U.S., Iran is bound to suspect that the U.S. and Israel may take the opportunity to plan new large-scale military actions against Iran.

Ding Long believes that the current situation between the U.S. and Iran is merely a "tactical breather," and the U.S. also intends to give countries like Oman time and space to facilitate diplomatic operations. Since the fundamental differences between the U.S. and Iran on core issues such as navigation rules in the Strait of Hormuz have not been resolved, coupled with the complete lack of mutual trust, the flames of war could reignite at any time.