Russian Media: Will Iran Launch Missile Attacks on Ukraine?

Reference News Network reported on July 31 An article titled "Will Iran Launch Missile Attacks on Ukraine?" was published on the website of the Russian Strategic Culture Foundation on July 28, authored by Dmitry Shevchenko. The article is excerpted as follows:

Kiev's attempts to disrupt Russian maritime trade in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea have resulted in the ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv being blocked, and international carriers have also refused to deliver goods to Ukraine. On July 25, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suddenly attacked an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea, resulting in one death. Several conclusions can be drawn from this incident.

First, based on the flight trajectory, the air defense systems of Iran's neighboring countries failed to function. Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey either did not detect the Ukrainian drone or, although they detected it, failed to shoot it down. This means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may use captured Russian drones to launch attacks on these countries in the future, creating the illusion of a "Russian drone invasion," and then express outrage in international organizations.

Second, the military strike against Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea indicates that Kiev intends to further escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict to other regions, dragging as many countries as possible into it. Kiev has long been making such attempts, having previously accused Moscow of sending drones to Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, and Turkey. At the same time, Kiev claims that Belarus intends to attack Ukraine and has joined Moldova in making territorial claims over the Transnistria region. Although these tactics have not yet been effective, Ukrainian intelligence agencies and the propaganda machine of the Kiev regime are still actively engaging in such provocations.

Third, this attack was deliberately timed to occur before Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to Washington. Its main purpose was not to target a specific Iranian vessel but to demonstrate that Ukraine sees itself as a loyal military ally of the United States. It is well known that NATO's European member states have reacted coldly to military actions initiated by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Moreover, some of these countries have even refused to provide military support to Washington and do not allow U.S. Air Force aircraft to use their airports.

Iran typically retaliates without hesitation, so the attack on Iranian vessels could provoke missile strikes against Ukraine. Ibrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, pointed out: "Any attack on Iran will come at a high cost, and this has not changed. The U.S. and Israel are well aware of this. Ukraine will soon realize that Iran will not ignore any actions."

There is no doubt that Iranian missiles can easily hit areas controlled by the Kiev regime. The Ukrainian "Defense Express" website notes that some Iranian missiles have a range of 2,000 to 4,000 kilometers, and only missile defense systems like "THAAD" and "Arrow" can intercept them. In this case, the "Patriot" air defense system equipped by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is of little use.

Ukrainian sources believe that Iran may launch ballistic missiles at Ukraine in the coming days. However, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation stated, "There is currently no official information regarding Iran's plans to launch missile attacks on Ukraine."

In principle, Iran is unlikely to want to waste its missiles on Ukraine—over the past few months, Ukraine has been subjected to daily attacks from Russian drones and missiles. However, Ukraine's actions will not go unpunished. Tehran may launch similar targeted strikes against Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea and does not rule out the possibility of military retaliation against other Ukrainian targets. Additionally, Iran may strengthen its military cooperation with Russia, providing more Iranian drones and other military products to the Russian military. In extreme cases, it may even launch strikes against U.S. military bases in Europe.

In any case, during his meeting with Trump in Washington, Zelensky will express Ukraine's full support for U.S. military actions against Iran and take the opportunity to seek more "Patriot" air defense missiles. After all, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have nearly exhausted this type of missile.

As for whether Iran will launch attacks on Ukraine—Zelensky may not care at all. After all, he spends most of his time traveling across European countries, busy meeting with Western leaders, trying to secure more funding and weapons for the war against Russia. (Translated by He Yingjun)