The Deep Logic Behind the Fall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli Amidst the Turmoil of the PLA on the Eve of the Two Sessions

Military Turmoil on the Eve of the Two Sessions: The Deep Logic Behind the Fall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli

Li Minghui | hiwars.com Chinese Military Defense Commentator | March 2, 2026

1. Turmoil: An Unprecedented Fall of Two Generals on the Same Day

On January 24, 2026, the official website of the Chinese Ministry of Defense released a brief announcement: General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and General Liu Zhenli, Chief of the Joint Staff, are under investigation by the Central Military Commission's Discipline Inspection Commission for suspected serious violations of discipline and law.

This announcement, though only a few dozen characters long, caused a huge stir in the international military observation community. Zhang Youxia is one of Xi Jinping's most trusted military veterans, having accompanied Xi on numerous occasions at major military events, and is widely regarded as a core figure in Xi's military circle; Liu Zhenli oversees the PLA's highest operational command system—the Joint Staff, equivalent to the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The simultaneous fall of the two generals marks the highest-level and most impactful military purge during Xi Jinping's over ten years in power.

An analysis report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) points out that after the investigation of Zhang and Liu, only General Zhang Shengmin remains among the current members of the Central Military Commission, alongside Xi Jinping in the highest military decision-making body. This indicates that the highest command level of the PLA has nearly completed a thorough reorganization.

2. Background: A Purge of Over a Hundred Since 2022

The fall of Zhang and Liu is not an isolated incident but the latest peak of a large-scale military purge initiated by Xi Jinping since the beginning of his third term in 2022. According to CSIS database statistics, since 2022, over a hundred senior PLA generals have been investigated, dismissed, or have disappeared, covering almost all military systems, including the Rocket Force, Navy, Air Force, Strategic Support Force, and the Equipment Development Department of the Military Commission.

The purge of the Rocket Force in 2023 was particularly noteworthy—then-Commander Li Yuchao and Political Commissar Xu Zhongbo were successively removed, leading to a near-total paralysis of the highest command level of China's nuclear forces. The Zhang and Liu incident is of even higher significance, symbolizing that this purge has spread from specific military branches to the core decision-making level of the Military Commission.

From a historical perspective, Xi Jinping's logic of military purges continues the tradition established by Mao Zedong through the Gutian Conference and the Yan'an Rectification Movement, which affirmed the Party's absolute leadership over the military. The difference this time is that it faces a deeply modernized, professional military with a more complex network of interests.

3. The Two Sessions Context: Political Signal or Strategic Adjustment?

It is particularly noteworthy that this purge occurred less than six weeks before the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) (March 4) and the National People's Congress (NPC) (March 5). Each year, the Two Sessions are not only a core node in China's political calendar but also an important window for the announcement of military budgets.

Analysts point out that Xi Jinping's decision to announce the Zhang and Liu cases on the eve of the Two Sessions carries multiple political implications:

• Deterrent Effect: By using a high-profile purge case, it sends a signal to the entire military that no one can rise above Party discipline, clearing political obstacles for the establishment of the new Military Commission leadership.
• Budget Preparation: There are widespread expectations that the 2026 Two Sessions will again raise the defense budget, with an increase of 7% to 8%. The purge can release a policy logic that emphasizes anti-corruption in the military as a prerequisite for funding to be in place.
• Personnel Restructuring: Vacant positions in the Military Commission will be gradually filled before and after the Two Sessions, with the loyalty and technical capabilities of newly promoted generals becoming primary considerations.

4. Readiness Concerns: The Impact of the Purge on PLA Combat Capability

However, the costs of the purge cannot be ignored. The CSIS report clearly states that the high-level cleansing of over a hundred personnel has had quantifiable negative impacts on the current readiness status of the PLA.

First, the vacancy of the Chief of the Joint Staff directly affects the PLA's joint operational coordination capabilities. In potential conflict areas such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, the approval and coordination of operational plans rely on this core position. Second, large-scale personnel changes lead to a conservative mindset among mid-level commanders, resulting in a tendency to avoid risks, which suppresses initiative and creativity, contrary to the command culture needed for the PLA's push towards intelligent warfare.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense has added $12.6 billion in the fiscal year 2026 specifically for military monitoring of China—covering submarine tracking, satellite reconnaissance, and intelligence gathering. This move reflects the U.S. side's heightened alertness to the declining strategic transparency of the Chinese military during the purge.

5. Analysis and Judgment: Short-term Pain Under Strong Military Logic

In summary, Xi Jinping's military purge reflects a clear strategic logic: it is preferable to endure the short-term costs of decreased readiness to ensure the Party's absolute political control over the military, and to use this as a foundation for advancing long-term military modernization.

This logic is not without historical precedent—Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1969 similarly caused a significant decline in the PLA's combat effectiveness, but laid the political foundation for the subsequent military reconstruction led by Ye Jianying.

However, the current international environment is far more complex than during the Cultural Revolution. The tense situation in the Taiwan Strait, frequent confrontations in the South China Sea, and the continuous strengthening of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's forward deployments mean that the potential testing window facing the PLA is much more urgent than in the 1970s.

With the Two Sessions approaching, the outside world will closely watch: who will fill the power vacuum left by Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli? How will the new Military Commission leadership seek a balance between political loyalty and military professionalism? The answers to these questions will largely determine the actual direction of China's military power in the coming years.

Conclusion

The early 2026 purge of the PLA is a key window for understanding China's military-political ecology. It not only demonstrates Xi Jinping's strong will to control the military but also reveals the deep contradictions in the institutional construction of this transforming military. For the international community, a politically purer PLA, but one whose command system is still in the process of adjustment, will make strategic assessments more complex—this may be the most noteworthy strategic signal on the eve of the Two Sessions.

References: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report (February 2026), official announcement from the Chinese Ministry of Defense (January 24, 2026), reports from Bloomberg and South China Morning Post.