The Hormuz Agreement is Close to Being Finalized, U.S.-Iran War End Negotiations Enter Final Window

[Amman Analysis] On May 23, Trump brought the U.S.-Iran war end negotiations to the public stage. AP reported that after speaking with leaders from Israel and several other countries, he stated that an agreement involving the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been “largely negotiated,” with final details to be announced soon. For Gulf countries, this is not ordinary diplomatic language, but a shift from passage permits, ship queues, and U.S. military blockades to a larger ceasefire deal.

From Passage Control to War End

From May 16 to 20, hiwars has been continuously tracking Iran's push for a management mechanism for the Persian Gulf Strait, passage windows, toll mechanisms, and the IRGC's so-called coordination of 26 vessels through the strait. These actions indicate that Tehran may not be pursuing a complete closure of the strait, but rather attempting to institutionalize temporary military pressure into a form of permit.

Now, the level of negotiations has clearly been elevated. Trump stated that he has spoken with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, and separately with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. AP reported that this peace memorandum still requires final confirmation from the U.S., Iran, and other countries involved in mediation; the same report also reminded that Iran and Israel had not immediately confirmed at that time.

Pakistan Becomes a Key Military Mediation Channel

What is most noteworthy in this round of negotiations is not a statement from a foreign minister, but rather Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir shuttling in Tehran. Axios and Iran International both pointed out that the Pakistan-led mediation has entered a sprint phase, with countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Egypt also coordinating intensively. Choosing Pakistan is not surprising: it has long-standing military communication channels with Washington, shares a security reality with Iran, and has old relationships with Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries.

The framework of the agreement reportedly includes four core parts: declaring the end of the U.S.-Iran war; gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. ending its blockade of Iranian ports and related shipping; and then initiating detailed negotiations over 30 to 60 days. CBS reported that the latest proposal also involves the release of some frozen Iranian assets. Iran's stance is more cautious, with Iran International quoting an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying that both sides are finalizing a 14-point memorandum, but the agreement is “both far and near.”

Nuclear Issues Being Pushed Back Does Not Mean They Are Resolved

The real risk lies here. AP pointed out that Trump's public statements did not mention Iran's nuclear program and high-enriched uranium issues; Axios also emphasized that uranium enrichment and stockpile fates are unlikely to be detailed in the current memorandum, but rather pushed into subsequent negotiations. In other words, if the current text is established, the first issues to be resolved are the ceasefire, shipping, and blockades, not the nuclear issue itself.

From a military perspective, this is a pragmatic arrangement, but also a dangerous one. The pragmatic aspect is that every additional day the strait is delayed, Gulf ports, oil and gas prices, insurance rates, and U.S. escort capabilities will continue to be under pressure. The danger lies in the fact that if the nuclear issue is merely pushed back by two months, and Israeli and U.S. hawks still believe Iran is preserving its core capabilities, any differences in interpretation could reignite the option of airstrikes.

Gulf Countries Want De-escalation, Not a Victory Narrative

The common interest of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain in this call is clear: they do not need Washington to announce a pretty victory on television; they need tankers, LNG ships, and insurance markets to regain predictability. Any military personnel who has served in the Gulf knows that the security of the Hormuz Strait is not a news headline, but a combination of radar, escorting, port scheduling, air defense alerts, and market confidence.

Therefore, if this agreement is finalized, its strategic significance does not lie in Iran's concessions or U.S. victories, but in Tehran exchanging “permitting Hormuz” for “negotiation leverage after a ceasefire,” while Washington replaces blockades and threats of further strikes with a limited diplomatic window. Ultimately, disputes may still arise, but the direction has changed: the Hormuz of mid-May was a shipping control issue, while the Hormuz after May 23 has become the entry point for whether the U.S.-Iran war can come to an end.

Main Sources

• AP, May 23, 2026, Trump says U.S.-Iran agreement is basically negotiated
• Axios, CBS News, and Iran International reports on Pakistan's mediation, lifting of blockades, and subsequent negotiation framework