The Jihadist Expansion in the Sahel: New Realities and Strategic Challenges
Marie DuboisThe Sahel region continues to be a major hotspot of security instability in Africa, characterized by a complexification of jihadist threats and a gradual deterioration of the security situation in several key countries. In the early months of 2026, the military and strategic landscape has undergone significant changes that redefine the challenges faced by states and local security forces.
The intensification of jihadist military operations represents the most concerning trend. According to ACLED data, Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, conducted a series of large-scale coordinated attacks across Burkina Faso and Mali between May and July 2025. These operations demonstrated increased operational capacity and significant mobility across vast territories. In February 2026, JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks over a week in eastern and northern Burkina Faso, highlighting the operational scope and mobility of the group across large portions of the territory.
The Islamic State in the Sahel (ISSP) continues its strategy of territorial expansion and consolidation of its areas of influence. Reports indicate that the ISSP has established strongholds in northwestern Nigeria since 2020 and has operationalized these cells since 2024. In March 2026, the group remains firmly in control of the Catupa forest despite air operations by Rwandan forces, primarily conducted by Mi-24 helicopters of the Rwanda Defence Force. This resilience demonstrates the group's ability to adapt and maintain strategic positions despite military pressures.
The growing collaboration among jihadist groups adds a concerning transnational dimension. In 2024 and 2025, the central command of the Islamic State based in Syria issued directives to fill power vacuums, instructing its West Africa branch to support its Sahelian affiliate in Mali and Niger. This dynamic follows a trajectory similar to that of the Khorasan Province of the Islamic State in Afghanistan, with the ISSP being shaped as a dual-use hub: both a destination for foreign fighters and a platform for projecting violence northward.
Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) conducted large-scale coordinated attacks across Burkina Faso and Mali between May and July 2025. In February 2026, JNIM launched further coordinated assaults in eastern and northern Burkina Faso. The Islamic State in the Sahel (ISSP) maintains control over the Catupa forest in Northwest Nigeria despite Rwandan air operations. Increased collaboration among jihadist groups is noted, with directives from ISIS's central command to support operations in the Sahel.
- JNIM conducted large-scale coordinated attacks in Burkina Faso and Mali from May to July 2025.
- ISSP has established strongholds in Northwest Nigeria since 2020 and remains in control of the Catupa forest as of March 2026.
- There is increasing collaboration between jihadist groups, with directives from ISIS's central command to support affiliates in the Sahel.