The Sahel now accounts for half of global terrorist deaths: The UN calls for urgent coordinated action

The security situation in West Africa and the Sahel is experiencing an alarming deterioration that threatens not only regional stability but has now become the global epicenter of violent extremism. During a United Nations Security Council meeting, Secretary-General António Guterres issued an unprecedented warning: the Sahel now accounts for more than half of the terrorism-related deaths worldwide, marking a dramatic escalation of a crisis that is inexorably spreading towards the coastal states of West Africa.

The data presented to the Security Council reveals a chilling reality. Between January and November 2025, the region recorded 450 terrorist attacks resulting in over 1,900 deaths, according to Omar Alieu Touray, president of the ECOWAS Commission. This intensification of violence is accompanied by a worrying territorial expansion of armed groups, notably Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS), the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and Boko Haram. These terrorist organizations have closed more than 14,800 schools and 900 health facilities, depriving millions of people of essential services and creating an institutional vacuum conducive to their establishment.

Regional fragmentation is now one of the major obstacles to an effective response. The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has created a concerning fracture in regional coordination. This division significantly complicates collective efforts to combat violent extremism, even as the threat transcends national borders. Sierra Leonean President Julius Maada Bio, speaking in his capacity as the current chair of ECOWAS, emphasized that "if we do not act decisively, the Sahel could become a permanent sanctuary for extremist enclaves."

The humanitarian dimension of this crisis has reached catastrophic proportions. The six humanitarian appeals for 2025 for the Sahel and the Lake Chad basin require $4.9 billion but remain severely underfunded. The plan for Mali is only 16 percent funded, leaving millions of people in a state of extreme distress. The region has 2.6 million displaced persons in the Liptako-Gourma area and 2.8 million in the Lake Chad basin. Temperatures in the Sahel are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, directly destroying the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on natural resources and fueling intercommunal tensions between herders, farmers, and fishermen.

The geographical expansion of the terrorist threat may be the most concerning development. Armed groups, particularly JNIM, are no longer content to control rural areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. They are now advancing towards coastal states, with a significant increase in attacks in Benin and Togo. In January 2025, attacks claimed by JNIM in northern Benin, near its border with Burkina Faso and Niger, resulted in the deaths of 28 Beninese soldiers. This southward expansion poses an existential threat to all of West Africa, with relatively stable countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo seeing the danger inexorably approaching their borders.

Terrorist groups have also developed a worrying tactical sophistication. According to testimonies presented to the Security Council, they are now engaging in an "economic war" by restricting fuel supplies and paralyzing trade. In Mali, the blockade imposed by JNIM on the historic city of Timbuktu illustrates this new strategy aimed at economically suffocating urban areas. Even more alarmingly, these groups are increasingly using advanced technologies, including drones, to conduct their operations. Since 2023, JNIM has launched nearly a hundred drone attacks, transforming improvised devices into effective tactical and surveillance tools.

The international response remains fragmented and insufficient. The withdrawal of French forces from Operation Barkhane in 2022, followed by the end of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in 2023, has created a significant security vacuum that extremist groups have exploited with deadly efficiency. Mali's decision to terminate its defensive cooperation treaty with France in May 2022, followed by its withdrawal from the G5 Sahel force, has significantly diminished the counter-terrorism capabilities of the regional organization. The failure to establish predictable funding for the G5 Sahel "has proven to be a strategic mistake with clear and dramatic consequences," according to António Guterres.

In the face of this vacuum, some countries have turned to controversial alternatives. Mali has notably called upon the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, deploying around a thousand mercenaries to fifteen outposts, including former French bases. This presence has been associated with serious human rights violations, including the Moura massacre in March 2022, where Malian soldiers accompanied by Russian mercenaries killed over three hundred civilians during a five-day operation allegedly targeting Islamist militants. UN experts have called for an independent investigation into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by government forces and the Wagner Group in Mali.

ECOWAS is attempting to restructure its response with the accelerated deployment of its standby force, starting with 1,650 personnel and aiming to reach 5,000 troops. However, Omar Alieu Touray warned: "No amount of money, no equipment will help us defeat terror if we do not collaborate and build trust." The trust deficit between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States is a major obstacle. Mali, speaking on behalf of the AES, emphasized that it is "fully open to cooperation with regional countries and partners, in full respect of our sovereignty, our strategic choices, and the interests of our peoples."

International support remains scattered despite some promising initiatives. The United Kingdom is funding and training Nigeria's National Counter-Terrorism Centre, the Côte d'Ivoire Counter-Terrorism Academy, and the Regional Fusion Intelligence Unit supporting the Multinational Joint Task Force. Côte d'Ivoire established its International Counter-Terrorism Academy in 2021, seeking to foster a counter-terrorism culture across Africa. However, the inadequacy of resources and the fragmentation of existing frameworks have limited their effectiveness. France recently announced a major strategic shift with an expansive agreement with Algeria allowing for monitoring of the Sahel without direct troop deployments, attempting to refocus its security approach after the expulsion of its forces from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The root causes of violent extremism in the Sahel require a comprehensive approach that goes beyond purely military solutions. António Guterres called for a coherent development strategy addressing poverty, weak governance, social fractures, climate shocks, and lack of opportunities. "Terrorists thrive where the social contract is broken," he stated, urging for increased investments in inclusive services, human rights, climate adaptation, social protection, and sustainable jobs to transform despair into hope. Pakistan highlighted that five of the ten countries most affected by extremism are in the Sahel and that "the people of West Africa and the Sahel deserve a future defined not by fear, but by peace, dignity, and development."

The critical situation in Nigeria illustrates the regional complexity of this crisis. The United States recently deployed about a hundred military personnel to Nigeria to provide non-combat technical advice, with several hundred more expected in the coming weeks. This intervention follows President Trump's threats last November to enter Nigeria "armed to the teeth" in response to the country's domestic security crisis. Meanwhile, the Nigerian government, through a combination of lobbying, dialogue, and de-escalation, has managed to shift Washington's position, resulting in a more constructive bilateral security collaboration.

The outlook remains bleak without urgent coordinated action. Both Algeria and Senegal have emphasized the need for regional coordination through African Union mechanisms, intelligence collaboration, and disruption of illicit financial networks. Niger recently announced a thaw in tensions with Algeria, nearly a year after a drone-related controversy that led members of the Alliance of Sahel States to withdraw their ambassadors from Algiers. This rapprochement comes ahead of renewed progress on a proposed trans-Saharan gas project, illustrating how economic interests can sometimes transcend political divisions.

The international community stands at a decisive moment. The failure to provide coordinated, predictable, and adequately funded support for African initiatives could turn the Sahel into a permanent sanctuary for terrorist organizations, with global ramifications. As Sierra Leonean President Julius Maada Bio warned: "Africa's peace is not a favor to be granted, but a foundation of global stability." Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023) offers a framework for predictable funding for African peacekeeping forces, but its implementation remains incomplete. The challenge now is to transform the political will expressed during Security Council meetings into concrete actions on the ground before the window of opportunity closes permanently.