The Sahel on the Brink of the Abyss: When Moscow's Promises Clash with Ground Reality

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The Sahel is going through a critical period. What was supposed to be a security renaissance under Russian auspices is turning into a deadly spiral, revealing the cruel limits of Moscow's promises.

**The Russian military failure: a bitter reality**

Since the withdrawal of French forces in 2022-2023, the Sahel countries have bet on Russia as a new security partner. Mali first, followed by Burkina Faso and Niger, welcomed fighters from the Wagner Group and then from the Africa Corps with the hope of an effective response against jihadist groups. Two years later, the toll is devastating.

The Africa Corps, the official structure meant to replace Wagner after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, has only 2,500 fighters on the ground. A paltry number in the face of the vastness of the Sahel and the scale of the jihadist insurrection. For reference, the French Barkhane force had up to 5,100 men and had failed to stem the phenomenon. How could 2,500 men, even seasoned, do better?

**Tinzaouaten: the bloody turning point**

The summer of 2024 marked a symbolic turning point. On July 27, near Tinzaouaten, at the Malian-Algerian border, a Russo-Malian column fell into an ambush set by the CSP-DPA (Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the Azawad People). The result: 46 Russian fighters killed and several vehicles destroyed. This is the heaviest loss suffered by Russian forces in the Sahel since their deployment.

This defeat revealed several flaws: unfamiliarity with the terrain, poor coordination with the Malian army, and above all, underestimation of the enemy. Tuareg rebels and jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have been able to adapt to the new Russian tactics, exploiting the same weaknesses as with French forces.

**The Africa Corps: new with old**

The transformation of Wagner into the Africa Corps has changed nothing about the reality on the ground. According to several consistent sources, 80% of the personnel in the Africa Corps in the Sahel are former members of Wagner. The same men, the same methods, but now under the official banner of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

This continuity raises questions. The documented abuses under Wagner — summary executions, looting, violence against civilians — continue. In April 2024, videos showing the execution of civilians by Russian fighters in Moura, Mali, caused an outcry. The UN investigation concluded that at least 500 people died. These practices fuel resentment among the populations and strengthen jihadist recruitment.

**The dangerous game of ECOWAS**

In the face of chaos, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is trying to regain control. The appointment of Lansana Kouyaté, former Guinean Prime Minister and seasoned diplomat, as special mediator for the Sahel signals a regional awareness. Kouyaté, respected for his experience at the UN and his knowledge of African issues, has been tasked with restoring dialogue with the three countries that have exited the ECOWAS fold.

But the task is daunting. The juntas in power in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey have made the break with the former colonizer and the Western anti-chamber a marker of identity. The Russian presence, despite its failures, remains their only publicly stated option.

**Geopolitical competition intensifies**

While Russia remains the declared military partner, other powers are active in the shadows. Turkey, through its military company SADAT and cooperation agreements, seeks to expand its influence. China is multiplying mining and infrastructure investments, without committing militarily for now.

But it is the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that are the most concerning. Abu Dhabi has invested over $500 million in the Malian gold sector, purchasing production from several mines. This financial windfall allows the juntas to circumvent ECOWAS sanctions and pay their Russian mercenaries. In exchange, the UAE gain privileged access to strategic resources.

This configuration creates a deadly triangle: the UAE finance, Russia provides the men, and local juntas cede their economic sovereignty. The populations, meanwhile, remain caught between jihadist violence and abuses by security forces.

**Towards a regional implosion?**

The Sahel is sinking into a spiral from which it sees no way out. The Russian promises of security have evaporated in the face of the reality of an elusive adversary and a merciless terrain. The 2,500 fighters of the Africa Corps, mainly former Wagner members, will not change the course of the war.

Meanwhile, armed groups are strengthening. The Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, controls large swathes of northern Mali. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) is expanding its grip on the tri-border area. Attacks are multiplying, and the displaced number in the millions.

The Sahel is not on the brink of the abyss: it is already there. And Moscow's promises will not pull it out.
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