The scale of troop withdrawal may exceed 5,000, deepening rifts in the transatlantic alliance, and the U.S. military's withdrawal plan from Germany causes chaos in NATO.

[Global Times Special Correspondent Xie Zhao] U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced on May 1 that 5,000 U.S. troops will be withdrawn from Germany. On May 2, President Trump further announced that the scale of U.S. troop withdrawals from Germany would "far exceed 5,000." Given the critical role that U.S. forces in Germany play within the entire NATO military system, the latest withdrawal plan announced by the U.S. immediately caused a huge impact on both sides of the Atlantic.

Large Scale of U.S. Forces in Germany

According to the Associated Press on the 4th, the U.S. typically deploys 80,000 to 100,000 troops on the European continent, with over 36,000 stationed in Germany, distributed across various NATO command structures, military logistics hubs, and even nuclear weapons storage sites. The "Deutsche Welle" website reported that the U.S. forces in Germany are currently located at about 20 sites, mainly concentrated in southern and southwestern Germany, and the scale of U.S. forces in Germany is second only to Japan among all U.S. overseas deployments.

For example, Stuttgart and Wiesbaden host the "strategic brain" of U.S. forces in Europe. The U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command are both located in Stuttgart, overseeing all military operations of U.S. forces on these two continents. Wiesbaden is home to the U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command, where Western arms assistance and training programs for Ukraine are also coordinated.

In terms of military bases directly related to combat, Ramstein Air Base is the largest U.S. military base outside of the homeland. It serves as a logistics hub for U.S. forces, equipment, and supplies heading to the Middle East, Africa, or Eastern Europe, and is also the location of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe Command and the command center for monitoring military airspace of NATO European member states. Additionally, the base has satellite relay stations that can remotely control U.S. "Reaper" drones executing strike missions over the Middle East. Nearby is the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, the largest military hospital outside the U.S., where casualties from Europe, Africa, or the Middle East are transported for treatment.

About 120 kilometers northwest of Ramstein Air Base is the second largest U.S. Air Force base in Germany—Spangdahlem Air Base. Unlike Ramstein, Spangdahlem primarily serves as a forward operating base. It hosts a fighter wing equipped with about 20 F-16 fighter jets, serving as a rapid response force during crises and wars, dedicated to "enhancing the security defense of NATO's eastern flank," and specifically responsible for suppressing enemy air defense systems during wartime.

The Büchel Air Base in Rhineland-Palatinate is considered the only location in Germany where U.S. nuclear weapons are stored. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that the U.S. has deployed 15 to 20 tactical nuclear warheads there. Germany, along with other European countries, participates in NATO's "nuclear sharing mechanism," where the U.S. stores nuclear weapons in Europe, which can be delivered to targets by aircraft from European NATO allies when necessary.

Additionally, Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels, two small towns in Bavaria east of Nuremberg, host the Joint Multinational Readiness Center (JMRC), which is the most important training base for U.S. forces in Europe. Grafenwoehr has one of the largest and most advanced training areas in the world, capable of conducting live-fire weapons system training; while Hohenfels features simulated villages used to replicate real war scenarios, with thousands of NATO soldiers training at these two locations each year.

Details of the Withdrawal Remain Unclear

The Associated Press reported that during the Cold War, West Germany was NATO's "outpost country," where a large U.S. military presence was stationed to deter the Soviet Union. In 1985, the number of U.S. troops in Germany exceeded 250,000. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Germany's central position in Europe still held strategic value for the U.S. Although the number of U.S. troops in Germany has continued to decline since then, the existing bases are still used to support U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Africa.

However, the U.S. has long complained that Germany is "free-riding" on U.S. defense security, contributing insufficiently, and has often threatened to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany. To pressure Germany to increase military spending, the U.S. Department of Defense hinted in the first half of 2018 that it was considering new deployment adjustments for U.S. forces in Europe, evaluating specific plans for the withdrawal or relocation of U.S. troops in Germany. The Stars and Stripes reported that during his first term as President in 2020, Trump also announced plans to significantly reduce the number of U.S. troops in Germany, citing Germany's insufficient defense spending. At that time, he ordered the withdrawal of 12,000 U.S. personnel from Germany, reducing the scale by about one-third, including relocating the U.S. European Command from Stuttgart to Belgium and bringing back the 2nd Cavalry Regiment of the "Strike" Brigade stationed in Vilseck, Germany. However, after the Biden administration took office, this plan was completely halted in February 2021, and Germany also promised to increase its defense spending ratio, temporarily easing tensions between the two sides.

As for which units are involved in the troop withdrawal announced by Trump, the Pentagon did not disclose specific information. The Economist reported on the 3rd that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the Biden administration sent thousands of additional troops to Europe and had attempted to withdraw these reinforcements, so Trump's actions may simply be a "return to the status quo." The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung speculated that the affected unit might be the 2nd Cavalry Regiment of the "Strike" Brigade stationed in Vilseck, which had already been included in the withdrawal plan. This unit has about 4,800 soldiers, roughly matching the 5,000 personnel reduction announced by the U.S. The Stars and Stripes noted that the 2nd Cavalry Regiment is currently the only permanently stationed ground combat unit of the U.S. in Germany, and it remains unclear where the Pentagon will deploy this unit in the next six months, with a high probability that it will not be moved to other locations in Europe. However, some analysts believe that if the U.S. aims to quickly reduce its troop presence, it may prioritize adjusting rotational forces rather than permanent forces to avoid the complexities of relocating military families.

The New York Times reported on the 4th that compared to the chaos triggered by Trump's announcement to withdraw troops from Germany in 2020, German leaders and security analysts today show almost no concern about "losing a small portion of U.S. troops stationed in the country." The U.S. think tank Council on Foreign Relations stated on the 4th that what worries Germany more than the withdrawal of combat troops is the possibility that the plan to deploy U.S. missile forces in Germany in 2027 may be canceled. This agreement was signed in 2024 by then-German Chancellor Scholz and U.S. President Biden, aimed at countering "Russian missiles deployed in Kaliningrad." This also marks the first deployment of long-range ground-based missiles in Germany after the collapse of the U.S.-Russia Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The relevant agreement requires the U.S. military to deploy long-range weapons such as "Tomahawk" cruise missiles and "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missiles in Germany, but now the U.S. may deploy them to the Middle East.

A Historic Turning Point in Transatlantic Relations

The U.S. announcement of troop withdrawals from Germany has sparked widespread criticism. CBS News reported that Pentagon officials believe this withdrawal plan indicates Trump's dissatisfaction with European allies' assistance in the conflict with Iran. German Chancellor Merz stated on April 27 that the U.S. launched military action against Iran without formulating any strategy, leading to a dilemma and being "humiliated" by Iran. Trump responded on social media, stating that Merz "doesn't know what he's talking about," and subsequently announced that the U.S. is exploring the possibility of reducing troops stationed in Germany. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell stated on the 4th that the timing of the U.S. announcement to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany was unexpected, emphasizing that U.S. forces in Europe are not only there to protect European interests but also to protect U.S. interests. She stressed that the U.S. withdrawal plan indicates that EU countries need to strengthen their pillar role in NATO and must do more.

Germany's Der Spiegel stated that whether the Pentagon can complete the withdrawal as planned remains uncertain. The costs of bringing these U.S. troops back to the homeland are extremely high, and U.S. sources indicate that there is no possibility of receiving these troops in Asia.

France 24 quoted expert analyses stating that the U.S. withdrawal from Germany would be "foolish." The Financial Times commented that the U.S. withdrawal from Germany marks a historic turning point in transatlantic relations, signifying the formal end of the post-Cold War security landscape. Le Monde stated that Europe is being pushed to a crossroads in defense decision-making. The BBC reported that the chairs of the military committees of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, Roger Wicker and Mike Rogers, expressed deep concern in a joint statement about the decision to "withdraw a U.S. brigade from Germany." They believe that these troops should not be returned to the U.S. but should instead be deployed to bases in Eastern Europe.

In addition to concerns about the direct impact of the U.S. withdrawal from Germany, security expert Jana Puggelin from the European Council on Foreign Relations believes that the sudden announcement of the U.S. withdrawal from Germany further undermines the U.S. military alliance system, "because the U.S. did this without prior consultation or coordination." An attaché from a NATO country stationed in Germany expressed dissatisfaction with their government, stating that there is a clear consultation mechanism within NATO, and such a significant troop movement should be discussed through the NATO Military Committee rather than announced unilaterally by Washington.