The US Claims Iran's Port Blockade Can Be 'Indefinite' as Hormuz Remains Caught in Two Narratives of Blockade

Ahmed Al-Rashid｜Breaking Analysis｜31 October 2026

Core Judgment: Washington has shifted its rhetoric regarding the blockade of Iranian ports and coastal shipping from deterrence to ongoing enforcement, defining the time frame for the first time as 'indefinite'; Tehran continues to use the navigation of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. The two cannot be conflated: the US blockade targets trade, exports, and imports going in and out of Iranian ports; Iran restricts the entire strait's navigation, permissions, and risks. The fact that vessels are still passing on the first day indicates that the strait is neither normally open nor physically closed to all traffic.

Not the Same Blockade

US Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated on the 30th that the US Navy could maintain the blockade 'indefinitely' through ship rotations. The original wording reported by Reuters refers to Iranian ports, oil terminals, and coastal shipping, aimed at compressing Iran's crude oil revenue and maritime trade, not at announcing the closure of Hormuz. The US Central Command still claims that the main shipping lanes have been cleared of mines and encourages non-Iranian trade to use the southern route closer to Oman. This is the official US position, as reported by the news agency.

Iran, on the other hand, claims that the strait remains closed until conditions are met, and vessels should use the northern route recognized by them and coordinate with Iranian authorities; Iranian sources state that arrangements with Oman are in the 'final stages,' but 'the US must act first.' The text of the agreement, timing, and monitoring mechanisms have not been made public, and there are no independent documents for verification, thus it is the Iranian/mediator's claim, pending confirmation, and cannot be equated with an established navigation agreement.

Deadlock and Actual Passage

The US is using the port blockade to force Iran to relinquish maritime control; Iran is tying the restoration of navigation to the lifting of the blockade, sanctions, and asset issues. According to Reuters shipping data, only eight vessels passed through the strait on Tuesday, below the previous ten-day average of about 12 vessels, and far below the pre-war daily average of 130 to 140 vessels. The data supports neither 'complete openness' nor 'total closure.' Even if one side declares the navigation safe, carriers will still decide whether to navigate based on mines, interceptions, misjudgments, and insurance rates.

The Fourth Tanker: Accident Confirmed, Attribution Unconfirmed

The Oman Maritime Safety Center confirmed the rescue of 25 crew members from the Panama-flagged merchant vessel RITI, which caught fire after being attacked; vessel tracking websites list it as a crude oil tanker. UKMTO also reported that a vessel about 40 nautical miles south of Lavan Island was hit by an 'unknown projectile,' caught fire, with crew safe and no immediate environmental impact observed. Both reports confirm the accident and rescue, but it has not been confirmed that it is the same vessel.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the fourth tanker, carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil, hit a mine and burned in the so-called 'unauthorized' southern route, but did not disclose the vessel's name, operator, flag state, or comparable coordinates. UKMTO used the term 'unknown projectile' rather than mine. Therefore, whether RITI is the 'fourth vessel,' the casualties, vessel name, and mine attribution are all pending confirmation and cannot be stated as established facts.

Mediation and Asian Costs

Qatari mediators have once again submitted a proposal to Tehran to end the war; CBS reported via Reuters that there is a new draft, while Iranian senior officials called the content 'unacceptable.' Trump stated that Iran wants to talk and that the war could end quickly, but has not received public agreement from Iran. Contacts are ongoing, but this does not mean that a phased agreement has been reached; the US midterm elections on November 3 are merely a backdrop.

Oil prices have risen to about a six-month high, with market pricing reflecting not only Iranian oil but also transit, war risk, and substitute vessel tonnage. Asian buyers face rising delivered costs and a narrowing of Iranian supply: Reuters sources indicate that Chinese independent refiners are shifting to Iraqi and Qatari barrels, with a maximum of 20 million barrels expected in October-November. Iran's discounts on oil to China may widen, but the risks of export, payment, and transit remain opaque, with specific quotes and transactions pending confirmation.

The Next 72 Hours

1. Oman and Qatari mediators' representatives with written framework;
2. AIS passage volume, north-south route distribution, and key signal closures;
3. War risk, VLCC freight rates, and Asian substitute crude price differentials;
4. US aircraft carrier, mine clearance, and escort force positions, as well as CENTCOM verifiable reports;
5. UKMTO updates on the names, flag states, and causes of the RITI and Lavan Island south incident.

Source Layering: Level 1: Oman Maritime Safety Center, UKMTO, CENTCOM/Pentagon public statements. Level 2: Reuters (as reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, CBS, etc.) quotes from Hegseth, passage volumes, and mediation reports; Arab News verifying rescue and alerts. Level 3: Iranian Revolutionary Guard statements regarding the four tankers, mines, and 'final stages'; Trump's negotiation statements.

Source:Reuters/Asharq Al-Awsat; Arab News; CBS News/Reuters; Arab News/Reuters.

US Calls Iran Port Blockade ‘Indefinite’ as Hormuz Remains Only Partly Open

Ahmed Al-Rashid | Breaking Analysis | 31 October 2026

Washington’s enforcement operation against Iranian ports and coastal shipping has moved from threat to an open-ended posture. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said the US Navy could sustain it indefinitely through ship rotations. This is not the same as closing the Strait of Hormuz: the US operation targets trade to and from Iran, while Tehran is using routes, permissions and security risk to constrain passage through the strait itself.

The difference matters. Reuters-reported tracking data show only eight vessels transited on Tuesday, versus roughly 12 over the previous ten-day average and 130–140 before the war. That is neither normal traffic nor a literal zero-flow closure. It undercuts both maximal claims: Washington’s assertion of freely usable lanes and Tehran’s claim of a fully closed strait.

Iran says an Oman arrangement is in its “final stages” but that Washington must act before Hormuz can open. No text, sequencing or monitoring mechanism has been independently published; this remains unconfirmed. Qatari mediators have also returned with a proposed deal, according to Reuters reporting cited by CBS, while Iranian officials call its ideas unacceptable. Diplomatic contact is not an agreement.

On shipping security, Oman confirmed the rescue of 25 crew from the Panama-flagged merchant vessel RITI after a fire. UKMTO separately reported a vessel hit by an unknown projectile south of Lavan Island. Iran’s claim that a fourth tanker hit a mine and burned has no independently released name, flag, casualty count or verifiable linkage to either report. The mine attribution and vessel identity are therefore unconfirmed.

For Asian buyers, the open-ended posture raises delivered-cost risk through war insurance, freight and substitute-crude competition. Reuters-reported trade indications show Chinese independent refiners shifting toward Iraqi and Qatari barrels; Iranian crude discounts may be widening, but actual offers and completed sales remain opaque. Over the next 72 hours, watch mediator movements, AIS passage counts by route, insurance and VLCC rates, carrier/minesweeper positions, and any UKMTO update identifying the affected ships.