The U.S.-Turkey Plan to Supply Weapons to Ukraine Warned by Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry: It Will Seriously Damage Relations Between Russia and the U.S. and Turkey

【Global Times correspondent in Russia, Xiao Xinxin】“What exactly motivates the United States and Turkey to decide to open another 'Pandora's box' to prolong the dying struggle of the Kyiv regime and take more lives?” According to a report by RIA Novosti on the 15th, in response to reports that the U.S. and Turkey plan to supply U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated that the U.S. and Turkey claim to play a "special role" in resolving the Ukraine crisis, asserting that their primary task is to seek a political and diplomatic solution. However, supplying weapons to Ukraine will inevitably cause various damages. This not only involves the Ukrainian authorities attempting to expand the extent of casualties and destruction but will also severely damage the relations between Russia and the U.S. and Turkey.

According to reports, Turkey plans to transfer a batch of U.S.-made weapons it possesses to Ukraine. Zakharova stated on the 15th that, according to documents recently released by the U.S. Congress, the number of these weapons is astonishing and includes offensive weapons. The documents involve 12 sets of U.S.-made Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), over 2,500 accompanying unguided cluster munitions, 47,000 203mm cluster shells, and 70 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. She stated that such a large-scale transfer of lethal weapons is still highly controversial. It is currently unclear who initiated this transfer, how it will be implemented, and when the weapons will arrive in Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry has requested explanations from both the U.S. and Turkey regarding the information released by the U.S. Congress. Zakharova also mentioned that under Turkey's repeated assurances that it would not provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, the act of supplying weapons while claiming to mediate peace will inevitably weaken mutual trust. “It is not too late to calmly assess the situation.”

According to previous reports from DPA and other media, the U.S. State Department submitted a formal notification to Congress regarding this transfer plan on the 3rd of this month, which was published in the official meeting records on the 6th. The transaction is valued at approximately $283 million, and the U.S. State Department expressed support for it in the notification. If neither chamber of Congress raises objections within 30 days, the transaction is considered approved. Reports indicate that this transfer will be conducted through defense and logistics companies designated by Turkey, Bulgaria, and the U.S.

Russian newspaper Vzglyad reported on the 15th that former Turkish military officer and retired Air Force Colonel Sefer believes that Turkey's supply of weapons to Ukraine will severely damage Turkish-Russian relations, negatively impacting military and political cooperation between the two countries and undermining Russia's trust in Turkey. Mutual trust is one of the key factors in cooperation between Russia and Turkey, and any threat to this mutual trust will have serious consequences. According to a report by TASS on the 16th, Dmitriev, the director of the Russian International Affairs Council, believes that the U.S. supplying weapons to Ukraine through Turkey will delay the prospects for resolving the Ukraine issue and make it "even more bleak." The U.S. does not want Ukraine to suffer a military defeat but rather seeks to reach a roughly equal compromise with Russia without Ukraine being defeated. Meanwhile, Russia is striving to achieve its established goals, including military victory, and there will inevitably be differences in positions between the two sides. He believes that the U.S. is "not neutral at all" and continues to support Ukraine by providing intelligence, weapons, and other assistance.

Russian media such as Military Observer reported on the 16th that Russia's statement this time has obvious diplomatic pressure implications, not only attempting to prevent Turkey from becoming an important channel for supplying U.S.-made long-range weapons to Ukraine but also reminding the U.S. that approving this transaction will further worsen U.S.-Russia relations. Additionally, this transaction reflects the serious ammunition dilemma faced by Ukraine.

The Financial Times reported on the 15th that Ukraine's "Patriot" air defense system is extremely short of interceptors, making its military progress achieved this summer "precarious" and facing severe blows from Russia's winter offensive. Ukraine expects to need at least 300 "Patriot" interceptors to cope with Russia's large-scale strikes on its energy and other infrastructure during the winter. However, Ukraine's stock of "Patriot" interceptors is rapidly decreasing, while Russia's production and use of ballistic missiles are increasing. Due to recent conflicts in the Middle East significantly depleting the stock of "Patriot" interceptors for the U.S. and its Gulf allies, the U.S. has not yet agreed to provide new interceptors to Ukraine.

The German newspaper Welt reported on the 15th that Ukraine's situation is extremely fragile before the arrival of winter, with President Zelensky not only urging his diplomats to raise alarms globally but also doing so himself, with calls for help reflecting "desperate expressions." Due to concerns about potential technical leaks, it remains uncertain whether the U.S. will ultimately authorize Ukraine to produce the "Patriot Advanced Capability-3" missiles. According to Ukraine's National Network on the 15th, Ukrainian military officer Onistrat believes that Russia may strike Ukrainian thermal power plants and other facilities as early as October or November, and the Ukrainian public should begin preparing for possible power outages and heating disruptions this winter, as well as stockpiling food and other necessities. November and December may be the most difficult months, and "life will be very hard."

On the 14th, the Russian Ministry of Defense displayed images of its drones and threatened that Ukraine would face a "freeze" this winter, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Strategic Communications Department responded by showcasing images of burning oil refineries, captioned "Let’s warm ourselves by the flames of Russian oil refineries." Currently, mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine continue.

The New York Times reported on the 15th, citing five European officials, that France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, concerned about being excluded from the negotiation process regarding Ukraine, are working to establish their own negotiation mechanisms to safeguard their interests. The report suggests that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may continue to escalate in the short term.