Turkey prepares to withdraw from base in Iraq in shift for Ankara-Baghdad relations: Analysts

BEIRUT — The Iraqi government expects Turkey to begin withdrawing troops from a military base in northern Iraq this month, in a move that analysts say is likely improve relations between the neighbors.

“The agreement is politically significant, but its immediate military implications should not be overstated,” Francesco Schiavi, a independent Middle East analyst and non-resident fellow at Middle East Institute Switzerland, told Breaking Defense.

Schiavi said the military outpost in Bashiqa — just 50 miles from Turkey’s southern border — “has been a source of friction between Ankara and Baghdad since Turkish troops deployed there in 2015.

“So its gradual handover represents a tangible step towards restoring Iraqi sovereignty and improving bilateral security relations,” he said.

On Sunday the Turkish government posted what it described as a joint statement in which Turkey said it would “begin taking the necessary steps on its part to facilitate the gradual handover of the Bashiqa-Zilkan base to the Federal Government of Iraq.”

The statement added that both countries decided to “operationalise the Joint Security Coordination Committee” meant to “jointly” verify and monitor progress in the “complet[e] elimination” of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) there. (The PKK, longtime enemy of Ankara, announced last year it would disarm and last month vacated four camps in northern Iraq, according to The Associated Press.)

On Monday a spokesperson for the Iraqi armed forces told local media that Iraq expected Turkey to begin withdrawing troops from Bashiqa-Zilkan this month, “culminating in the complete end of the Turkish presence there by the end of the year.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi agreed to the base transfer in September “in light of the progress Iraq has achieved through security measures,” according to a joint statement at the time.

Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, told Breaking Defense the withdrawal from Bashiqa-Zilkan doesn’t necessarily mean that all Turkish forces will leave northern Iraq, but “the trajectory suggests that is becoming a more distinct possibility.”

The transition comes as the region is experiencing a shift in its security landscape, from the formal US withdrawal from Iraq in September to the new Syrian government attempting to extend its sovereignty over Russian and Turkish military posts within its borders.

The Bashiqa-Zilkan handover “is significant politically, militarily, and strategically. It comes amid broader efforts to stabilize the region and potentially establish a new regional security architecture based on greater regional ownership and responsibility,” according to defense analyst Ali Bakir.

“The transfer of the bases should be accompanied by stronger Iraqi efforts to consolidate state authority, reinforce border security, and ensure that all armed groups operate strictly within the country’s constitutional and legal framework,” Bakir said.

But Schiavi said that the withdrawal will also be an “important test.”

“Iraqi forces will need to demonstrate not only that they can deploy and maintain a presence there, but also that they can prevent armed groups from re-establishing themselves or exploiting security gaps,” he said.