Ukraine's "Patriot" Missiles Reportedly Running Out, Russian Media: Kyiv Finds Itself in a Very Difficult Situation, Even Somewhat "Desperate"

[Global Times Special Correspondent in Russia, Xiao Xinxin, Global Times Special Correspondent, Wang Yi] As the war in Ukraine remains stalemated, CNN exclusively reported on the 17th that Ukraine revealed its critical weakness to CNN—the "Patriot" missiles are about to run out. Ukraine has been reluctant to disclose how many interceptors it has left, with President Zelensky stating last week that the number of interceptors currently available to Ukraine is only 1% of what it urgently needs from the United States. On the 17th, RIA Novosti reported that due to the depletion of U.S. stockpiles, Ukraine's lack of production licenses, and rising costs, Washington is unlikely to deliver "Patriot" missiles to Kyiv in the near future.

Ukraine Reveals "Critical Weakness"

CNN is the first media outlet allowed to enter Ukraine to inspect the "Patriot" missile defense system. Ukrainian officials disclosed to the media that the country's missile stockpile is nearly exhausted.

The Financial Times reported on the 17th that Ukrainian officials stated that the country had used up the small number of interceptors provided by Washington in the previous weeks. On August 5 and 8, the capital Kyiv was hit by missile attacks. In both attacks, Ukraine failed to intercept any ballistic missiles aimed at the capital. These attacks have heightened Kyiv's concerns that the military gains made earlier this summer through long-range strikes into Russian territory may disappear before winter arrives.

In an interview with CNN last week, President Zelensky stated, "If the U.S. sells 5% of its existing 'Patriot' missile stock, Ukraine can survive the winter and save lives; if 10% is sold, we can destroy all incoming Russian ballistic missiles, but I currently have only 1%." It remains unclear how many missiles the U.S. has promised to Ukraine, and it is also unclear how large the 1% of U.S. stock that Zelensky claims to possess actually is.

According to Deutsche Welle, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine has received an average of only about 133 "Patriot" missiles per year. Given the intensity of Russian missile attacks, this number is far from sufficient, leading Kyiv to increasingly consider another option: domestic production. CNN reported that during the NATO summit held in Ankara in July this year, Trump agreed to provide Ukraine with a production license for "Patriot" missiles. Raytheon and Lockheed Martin visited Kyiv to meet with Zelensky, but shortly thereafter, Trump expressed doubts about whether the license could be implemented, stating that the U.S. must be "cautious" regarding such technology transfers.

The Pentagon "Has No Stock Left"

According to RIA Novosti on the 17th, it is unlikely that the U.S. will deliver "Patriot" missiles to Kyiv in the near future. Since 2022, the cost of each "Patriot" PAC-3MSE missile for the U.S. military has increased by more than 30%. The procurement price for fiscal year 2023 is $3.825 million, which will rise to $4.988 million by fiscal year 2027. Additionally, due to months of intense fighting in the Middle East, the U.S. military has consumed a large number of "Patriot" missiles, making it impossible for the U.S. to export this type of missile to any country, especially Ukraine.

Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of Russia's Defense magazine, told RIA Novosti on the 17th that the U.S. Department of Defense cannot replenish "Patriot" missiles from any warehouse due to the lack of stock and must initiate new production. In the coming years, U.S. manufacturing plants will be fully occupied with fulfilling Pentagon orders and will not be able to supply elsewhere. He stated, "The Pentagon will not provide any missiles to Zelensky."

RIA Novosti also mentioned that regarding similar supplies from European countries, even nations like Finland, which have a negative stance towards Russia, have stated that they cannot provide "Patriot" missiles to Kyiv at the expense of their own security. Clearly, other NATO member states will hold the same position. "It is impossible to deploy corresponding production facilities in Ukraine. Trump has made this clear and has not provided the previously promised production licenses," Korotchenko said.

The Moscow Evening News reported on the 17th that due to the insufficient number of "Patriot" missiles before the arrival of winter, Kyiv finds itself in a very difficult, even somewhat "desperate," situation.

Ukraine Stops Disclosing Russian Missile Numbers

According to the Financial Times on the 17th, the severe shortage of the only weapon capable of intercepting Russian missiles has exposed a critical vulnerability in Ukraine's defense system. Ukrainian officials stated that the shortage of "Patriot" missiles has become so severe that the Ukrainian Air Force has stopped routinely disclosing the number of missiles launched by Russia to avoid revealing the number of intercepted missiles that failed. They claimed this move was for security reasons, but part of the reason was also to maintain public morale.

Ukraine has not ceased its attacks within Russian territory. According to the Russian newspaper Kommersant on the 18th, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that its air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 10 guided aerial bombs, 2 "HIMARS" rockets, and 1,671 Ukrainian drones in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, according to the Ukrainian Kyiv Post on the 18th, Russian missile attacks hit Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine, resulting in 10 deaths and 17 injuries. Russian drones also attacked the Kyiv region, damaging civilian infrastructure.