U.S. Expert Article: Iran Shatters U.S. Military's "AI Long-Distance Warfare" Fantasy

According to a report by Reference News on April 12, an article titled "Iran is Ending the Dream of Remote-Controlled Warfare" was published on the website of The New York Times on April 5, authored by Mark Gustafson, Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group, and Justin Kosslyn, Special Advisor at Eurasia Group. The full text is excerpted as follows:

In Washington, preparing for war with Iran always faces a harsh reality: starting a war is difficult, and winning is even harder. Iran is vast and mountainous, with most of its military infrastructure buried deep in caves and bunkers. Any serious plan aimed at overthrowing the Iranian regime quickly leads to the same conclusion—success requires the deployment of ground troops, which will inevitably result in more American casualties.

With the rapid development of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), an enticing idea has emerged: the U.S. may eventually be able to fight indefinitely against adversaries using AI, without putting American soldiers in harm's way.

The combination of AI with increasingly precise weapons and comprehensive surveillance has transformed the U.S. military's long-range operational capabilities. Today's U.S. military has improved its accuracy and speed in detecting and destroying enemies. As U.S. Central Command Commander Brad Cooper stated on March 11, AI tools can reduce the "target acquisition process that used to take hours or even days to just a few seconds."

However, despite the increased speed and accuracy of AI-assisted targeting, this conflict shows that reality poses significant obstacles to victory. The scale and distribution of Iranian drones cannot be overcome by AI alone. Short-range ballistic missiles, especially those on mobile launchers, can survive even under constant carpet surveillance. If war planners are still dreaming of achieving ultimate victory through remote-controlled warfare, Iran has undoubtedly made them aware of the harsh realities.

The changes that technology brings to warfare are astonishing. Today, as missiles and drones are launched at Iran, real-time imaging of targets by satellites and drones allows them to adjust their routes and speeds based on real-time data.

Compared to soldiers deployed on the battlefield, AI performs better in providing battlefield intelligence from a distance. Currently, U.S. drones are covering all of Iran, collecting video and images, intercepting signals, and transmitting all of it to warships stationed in the Persian Gulf. This data can be cross-referenced with phone numbers, communication records, and recently visited locations. All of this provides a basis for strike decisions.

In remote areas of Iran, missiles and drones are hidden in underground bunkers, and AI can identify potential launch sites by studying soil changes, thermal characteristics, the appearance of new buildings, and the types of vehicles. When Iranian fighter jets leave their bunkers to launch missiles or drones, surveillance drones can identify them as threats and send signals to nearby ships or aircraft to engage before they launch their munitions.

When these capabilities are specifically applied to AI-generated target strike plans, they may give decision-makers the impression that the risks of fighting Iran are low and that a quick withdrawal is possible. However, the deeper the U.S. becomes entangled in this conflict, the more it will realize that this is undoubtedly an illusion.

Iran's land area is larger than the combined areas of France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy, making it difficult to locate drones even if you know their specific locations. Launching a drone does not create detectable explosions like launching a missile, and drones are smaller and easier to hide. Iran's "Witness" drones can even be launched from behind pickup trucks. There are too many such trucks in Iran, and they are too widely distributed, making automatic surveillance and precise strikes difficult, as it is impossible to locate and destroy every target before they take off.

It has been proven that short-range ballistic missiles are more difficult to deal with than long-range ballistic missiles, which dominated last year's "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran. Most of the missiles launched by Iran this year are short-range weapons aimed at Gulf countries. Iranian drones are more maneuverable, smaller, and have shorter flight paths, which means there is less time for the U.S. to collect data and respond.

Despite the many advantages of AI-assisted targeting, it has not eliminated civilian casualties. The Pentagon attributed the bombing of a school in southern Iran to outdated intelligence. This indicates that AI has yet to solve the fundamental challenge of preventing civilian casualties in densely populated and complex environments.

If U.S. forces engage in close combat with Iranians, it will only further highlight the limitations of AI warfare. One thing is certain: the powerful capabilities of AI may make waging war easier, but they are not sufficient to win wars. (Translated by Wen Yi)