U.S. Media: The Risks of Implementing a Naval Blockade Against Iran Are High

Reference News Network reported on April 18 According to the U.S. Newsweek website on April 15, the U.S. military stated that they began implementing a maritime blockade against Iran on the 13th and have successfully prevented ships from leaving Iran. This operation involves over 10,000 soldiers, 12 warships, and dozens of aircraft.

The report states that Steve Priest, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, indicated that there are many significant challenges and high risks in executing this operation. He analyzed to Newsweek reporters that the U.S. Fifth Fleet should have comprehensive intelligence on commercial shipping traffic in the region. The Fifth Fleet is typically stationed in Bahrain and is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East.

However, the challenge lies in tracking those ships that attempt to conceal their movements, as their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmits false positions and directions, a behavior also known as "signal spoofing."

Equally tricky is the question of what constitutes a "visit to Iran" if a ship stops at a third country's port before attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military has stated that it will only intercept ships coming from Iranian ports or coastal waters.

Priest also mentioned that another way to "break the blockade" could be through ship-to-ship transfers in international waters, where the transfer vessels themselves have never entered Iranian territorial waters.

Priest said, "Before taking any action, everything needs to be tracked, assessed, and decided."

To achieve this goal, numerous resources can be utilized, including networks, satellites, drones, and artificial intelligence for intelligence analysis, as well as maritime patrol aircraft, manned warships, naval helicopters, and special forces.

Priest believes that interception operations may occur after ships exit the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea, so that U.S. Navy vessels can avoid being targeted by Iranian coastal missiles and drones.

However, this maritime area is vast, covering approximately 250,000 square nautical miles (about 860,000 square kilometers), requiring multiple warships to maintain the blockade.

The U.S. Central Command stated that missile destroyers are one of the resources available for implementing the blockade. Each destroyer has over 300 sailors, "well-trained in conducting offensive and defensive maritime operations."

Priest said that intercepting a ship may require one or more vessels, largely depending on the type of target ship. He indicated that boarding may not be necessary in any case. Requesting the ship to change course to a designated anchorage via radio instructions, or entering a port under escort, may be sufficient.

But where should these ships go next?

Priest said, "Oman is unlikely to be willing to be a receiving point for these ships, as it would put it in an awkward position in its relations with neighboring countries. The same goes for Pakistan." Even if a (receiving) port is found, it is uncertain what will happen next. Does this mean that these ships and the oil they carry will be seized as spoils of war, or will they be detained until the end of the conflict?

Current shipping data shows that some intercepted ships have already returned to the Persian Gulf through the Strait. (Translated by Hu Guanghe)