U.S. Media: The Risks of U.S. Ground Operations Against Iran Are Huge

Reference News Network reported on April 3 According to the U.S. Defense News weekly website on March 31, as the Pentagon weighs the possibility of conducting ground operations in Iran, the U.S. military is deploying thousands of troops to the Middle East. This mobilization raises the following question: what kind of missions would actually be conducted on the ground?

Military analysts have pointed out several possibilities, including coastal assaults, raids on nuclear facilities, or operations deep within the country.

Any of these missions could be conducted independently or evolve into broader operations. But in any case, U.S. troops would enter an environment where Iran's missiles, drones, and ground forces could immediately target them upon their arrival.

Coastal Operations

One form of combat could unfold along the coastline. The U.S. military's mission might be to seize islands or coastal positions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Joe Costa from the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center said this type of mission could be a limited ground invasion—deploying Marines and airborne troops to seize this critical terrain.

Trump publicly threatened Iran's main oil export center, Khark Island. On Monday, he posted on the "Truth Social" platform that the U.S. would end its "stay" in Iran by "totally destroying" Khark Island.

Costa, a former senior Pentagon official involved in formulating U.S. war plans, including plans for war with Iran, acknowledged speculation about Khark Island but also described the following scenario: U.S. forces would attempt to seize islands such as Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb off Iran's southern coast.

He also stated that the operation could rely on the Marines for initial assaults, supported by airborne troops for limited offensives and air assault operations—all conducted under conditions where the U.S. has air superiority.

The Pentagon confirmed last week that the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived in the region's waters last Friday, and that some troops from the 82nd Airborne Division are being sent to the Middle East.

Costa said U.S. forces would not conduct an isolated opening battle. Moreover, Iran appears to still possess operational command and control capabilities, able to launch attacks.

Costa warned that the first batch of U.S. ground troops would undoubtedly face Iranian fire.

He said, "We have overwhelming force and are likely to succeed in seizing territory, but by that time, every commander will face the daily decision of whether to risk troops or risk the mission—protecting the troops becomes crucial, especially as we start to see casualties rise. The risks are high in this operation."

Targeting Nuclear Facilities

Another type of operation would focus on Iran's nuclear program.

The U.S. military's mission would not be to seize territory but to enter fortified facilities and acquire nuclear materials, which they might be attacked while needing to go deep into Iran.

Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iranian missiles and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a professor at Sciences Po in Paris, said operations aimed at seizing enriched uranium could send special forces to a nuclear facility in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.

Grajewski stated that acquiring nuclear materials requires multifaceted support, from construction equipment to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear assets.

She added that to obtain high-enriched uranium canisters, ground forces would likely have to dig deep underground.

The team tasked with seizing nuclear materials could face armed resistance. The area is busy, and Isfahan's nuclear facility is located near numerous military and missile facilities, making the mission exceptionally dangerous.

Grajewski said such an operation is likely something "the U.S. military has never really conducted before." She added, "I don't know how the U.S. military plans to accomplish the mission. Will they fly in under the cover of night and quickly seize the nuclear materials?"

Broadening Operations

Even targeted actions like occupying islands or seizing nuclear materials could evolve into broader operations.

Dan Grazier, director of the National Security Reform Project at the Stimson Center, said the challenges the U.S. military might face are not just about seizing land or items; the core issue is: once U.S. troops set foot on Iranian soil, how Iran chooses to fight.

Grazier, a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps, said, "Just for the sake of a propaganda victory, the Iranians will do everything they can to kill and capture as many Americans as possible."

He said the Iranian military is likely to avoid conventional confrontation, dragging out the conflict rather than seeking decisive engagements. He also stated that Iran's goal is not to defeat U.S. forces but to make the conflict costly and protracted, forcing Washington's leaders to decide whether the war is worth continuing.

Any sustained ground operations could expand the battlefield, as Iran might activate proxy organizations in the region, further targeting U.S. forces and their partners.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated earlier in March that the cost of the first 100 hours of this war would be in the billions of dollars. Experts warned that the consumption rate of critical air defense interceptors could outpace the replacement rate.

As the war enters its second month, casualties are also rising. By the end of March, 13 U.S. service members had been killed, and over 300 were injured. A survey conducted earlier in March found that most Americans believe the war has gone too far. Another poll showed declining confidence in the president's handling of the war.

Grazier said, "I don't think the Iranians have any chance of defeating the U.S. on the ground. But they do have a chance of defeating the U.S. in domestic politics." (Translated by Qiu Fang)