U.S. Media: Why Are More and More Russian Missiles Breaching Ukrainian Defenses?

Reference News Network, August 9 report According to an Associated Press report on August 5, when Russia launches ballistic missiles at Ukraine, the air defense systems have only a few minutes, or even just a few seconds, to detect and intercept this deadly threat.

The report states that these highly destructive missiles are posing an increasingly serious threat to Ukraine. These missiles dive at high speeds and steep trajectories, and Ukraine claims that only the U.S.-made "Patriot" air defense system can intercept them. However, Ukraine has stated that its own air defense systems and the number of interceptors are severely insufficient.

Unlike cruise missiles, which operate similarly to unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic missiles are launched like rockets and dive towards their targets at several times the speed of sound at steep angles after launch.

This means that the time window for detecting and destroying the warheads is extremely short. Ukraine has been hit multiple times by ballistic missile attacks, with the most recent round targeting the capital hitting a warehouse, a logistics center, and other targets. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on the 5th that the attacks resulted in at least 17 deaths and dozens of injuries.

Thomas Withington, an electronic warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK, said that when the warhead dives towards the target, "the ballistic angle is very steep, and the speed is extremely fast." He likened it to catching a ball: the faster the ball is, the harder it is to catch.

The "Iskander"-M ground-based missile is Russia's main operational ballistic missile, while another type is the air-launched "Dagger" hypersonic missile. Russia also uses the S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles to strike ground targets. The "Zircon" cruise missile theoretically belongs to the category of hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, but its flight speed is similar to that of ballistic missiles, making interception equally challenging.

The advanced "Patriot" air defense system that Ukraine has obtained from foreign sources is specifically designed to defend against high-speed missiles. The "Patriot Advanced Capability"-3 missile (PAC-3) does not rely on exploding near the target but uses maneuverable interceptors to directly collide with incoming warheads. The "Patriot" system must track the missile, predict its flight path, and launch within minutes, leaving sometimes only a few seconds for the final interception.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat stated that among the equipment currently in service with the Ukrainian military, only the "Patriot" system can intercept Russia's "Iskander"-M, S-400, and "Zircon" missiles. The U.S. and its allies also possess missile defense systems like THAAD and Aegis, but have not provided them to Ukraine.

However, even with the "Patriot" system, there is no guarantee of a perfect interception. If the number of "Patriot" systems is insufficient, improperly deployed, or if there are not enough interceptors, other air defense equipment in Ukraine cannot replace its role.

Ukraine does not have enough air defense systems to protect every target. When launching ballistic missiles, Russia also employs cruise missiles, drones, and jamming munitions, forcing air defense forces to track a large number of threats simultaneously, making them hesitant to use the already limited interceptors.

As the conflict between the U.S. and Israel with Iran has consumed a large number of "Patriot" and THAAD interceptors, the shortage of interceptors has become increasingly severe. According to an analysis by the Associated Press, the U.S. "Patriot" interceptor stockpile has decreased by at least 65% compared to pre-war levels, but the U.S. Department of Defense stated that the country still has ample ammunition.

The production rate of interceptors cannot immediately fill the gap. Lockheed Martin delivered over 600 PAC-3 interceptors last year, with a goal to increase annual production to 2,000 by the end of 2030.

NATO has stated that the first "Patriot" missile production facility in Europe is expected to begin operations in Germany in September. (Translated by Wang Dongdong)