U.S. Navy Expansion Plans Likely to Fall Short

According to a report by Reference News Network on September 9, the World Press Syndicate website published an article on September 4 titled "The Disaster of the U.S. Navy," authored by former International Monetary Fund First Deputy Managing Director Anne Krueger. The full text is translated as follows:

The U.S. shipbuilding industry is gradually declining, while China's shipbuilding industry is rapidly rising. Data from the U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Intelligence shows that in 2015, the size of the Chinese Navy fleet was roughly comparable to that of the United States; however, five years later, China has 350 warships, while the U.S. Navy has only 293. Today, in terms of tonnage (including commercial and military), China's shipbuilding output accounts for over 50% of the global total, with the remainder primarily produced by South Korea and Japan.

Moreover, the outlook for the U.S. shipbuilding industry is not optimistic. A Pentagon report indicates that China plans to expand its naval fleet to 435 ships by 2030, while the U.S. Navy plans to add 58 warships by 2031. There is a general consensus that China's targets are realistic, while the U.S. plans are deemed "unrealistic."

This widening gap has prompted bipartisan efforts to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry. The 2025 "Shipbuilding and Port Infrastructure Promotion Act for American Prosperity and Security" provides industry subsidies and other measures aimed at boosting domestic shipbuilding, including the establishment of a "Maritime Security Trust Fund" of up to $20 billion. In February of this year, the Trump administration further launched the U.S. Maritime Action Plan, aimed at rebuilding the maritime industrial base by securing investment commitments from allies like South Korea.

However, shipbuilding capacity is only part of the problem. The U.S. Navy also faces difficulties in maintaining the operational readiness of its existing fleet, with high costs and long delays leading to a backlog of vessel maintenance that has accumulated over 20 years, forcing some ships to retire early. By 2025, the operational readiness of the U.S. Navy fleet has dropped to 68%, far below the target of 80%, resulting in deployment times exceeding the Navy's original six-month goal. The deteriorating condition of the USS Lincoln, the USS Ford's deployment of 326 days earlier this year, and the recent power outage incident involving the USS Benfold all attest to this pressure.

The current stimulus measures taken by the U.S. may strengthen the industry, but they do not address the fundamental reasons for its decline. One of the main reasons is Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 (the famous Jones Act). This law stipulates that goods transported between U.S. ports must be carried on vessels that are registered and built in the United States, owned by Americans, and crewed by Americans. Conducting ship repairs abroad incurs a 50% tax.

Unlike U.S. shipyards, large overseas shipyards build both commercial ships and warships, which share many components such as steel hulls, engines, and even propellers. Their workers can gain experience in building simpler commercial vessels before transitioning to constructing more complex warships. Additionally, as government procurement fluctuates with budget and defense needs, shipyards that can flexibly allocate workers between commercial and military shipbuilding clearly have a competitive advantage.

Tariffs on imported components are another factor contributing to rising U.S. shipbuilding costs. The U.S. Navy's fixed budget for fiscal year 2026 is $292 billion, which includes $47.4 billion allocated for shipbuilding, meaning these increased costs must ultimately be offset by tax increases or reductions in fleet size and capability.

Furthermore, there are President Trump's costly whims and eccentric obsessions. Although the U.S. Navy prefers to use electromagnetic catapults, Trump ordered the restoration of steam catapults. He also directed the Navy to consider relocating the island of the aircraft carrier to what he believes is a more aesthetically pleasing position. These changes will cost billions of dollars but will not enhance the Navy's combat capabilities.

Trump also plans to create a "Golden Fleet" composed of "Trump-class" nuclear-powered warships, a project expected to be extremely costly. The design work for these warships could take over a decade, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates the total cost of the project will reach $275 billion, with the first ship alone costing as much as $23.4 billion. Even if, as many analysts expect, the plan ultimately proves unfeasible, advancing this project will still deplete the Navy's budget. (Translated by Yang Xuelei)